Following game 43, I did some digging and saw that every full-season Cub team going back to 2003 had at least one five-game losing streak. So while this streak feels like it came out of nowhere, it’s not all that out of the ordinary. The good Cub teams in that stretch had a streak at least this long and the bad ones did too. So there isn’t anything particularly predictive based on a five-game skid. The 2003 Cubs that didn’t do that had a 1-5 rotation that was exceptional in comparison to the league
and particularly 1-3. The only other team in my lifetime when the Cubs had a rotation that dominant 1-3 was the 2016 Cubs and they managed to have a five-game skid anyway.
This game was the first one that flashed me back in a bad way. This loss felt like something straight out of the 2021 Cub season when the final unraveling of the championship group happened. You’ll recall that team actually started pretty good, though not this year good. That team was 42-33 after 75 games and looked like they might be able to make one more run. Famously, that ended with the team no-hitter in L.A. And then they immediately lost 11 straight. The notorious game of that stretch was a game in Milwaukee where the Cubs jumped out early and then cratered and ended up losing 15-7.
This flashed me back there. Not just a sweep at the hands of the Brewers, but looking totally inept. The Brewers are good. Perhaps better than the Cubs. They had the better record last season and won a playoff series from the Cubs. They have the better record now and just swept the Cubs. Frankly, you have to be pretty stubborn to make a case for the Cubs being better. The Brewers are certainly in the collective heads of these Cubs right now. This was pretty ugly. But they aren’t as much better than the Cubs as they looked in this series. These three games looked about what it might look like if you played a couple of tune-up games against your Triple-A team.
I’m not particularly a fire and brimstone guy, an advocate of closed door or player-only meetings. I think fans have given almost mythical power through the years to things that probably happen more often than we have any idea of and probably don’t have a high correlation with forward looking success. That said, I do obviously believe that a good weight room pep talk by the usually quiet team leader will always lead to a World Championship. So quiet leader better pull everyone together when the team gets to the park on Friday and gets everyone back on the same page.
All sarcasm and joking aside, there was nothing fun or funny in this one. The Cubs got their tails kicked culminating a horrible series on the backs of three not so good series. A 3-6 road trip has now become nine losses in 12 games. Almost half of the cushion the team built up has evaporated. This team needs to apply the brakes, get back to basics and start making plays defensively that they should be making and moving the line offensively like they can.
Three Positives:
- Trent Thornton retired all five batters he faced, striking out two.
- Hoby Milner faced four batters and retired all of them, striking out one.
- Ryan Rolison faced five batters and retired all of them, striking out one.
I’m positive I’ve not singled out three relievers on any game this year. The Cub bullpen had to throw six innings and they did so allowing only one run. That’s real good against a team like the Brewers. Four hits and two walks over six, we’d be ecstatic if a starter did that. So hat tip to the collective bullpen.
Game 50, May 20: Brewers 5, Cubs 0 (29-21)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Nico Hoerner (.045). 1-4, 2B
- Hero: Trent Thornton (.032). 1.2 IP, 5 BF, 2K
- Sidekick: Hoby Milner/Seiya Suzuki (.018). Milner: 1.1 IP, 4 BF, K; Suzuki: 0-2, BB
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Edward Cabrera (-.254). 3 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 R, 1 ER, 2 K (L 3-2)
- Goat: Alex Bregman (-.098). 1-4
- Kid: Carson Kelly (-.060). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: David Hamilton’s Little League homer with runners on first and second and one out in the second. It was legitimately a single and three base error. I’m not sure I’ve ever watched an outfielder slump before, but this has been jarring. (.233)
Cubs Play of the Game: Nico Hoerner led off the bottom of the first with a double. (.060)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 49 Winner: Nico Hoerner 105 of 125 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Busch +16
- Michael Conforto +14
- Nico Hoerner +12.5
- Shōta Imanaga +10
- Trent Thornton +6
- Ryan Rolison -8
- Phil Maton -9
- Matt Shaw -10
- Dansby Swanson -11
- Seiya Suzuki -17.5
Current Win Pace: 93.96 wins
Up Next: An off day Thursday that is very much needed. Then, they face the worst team (by record) that the Cubs have seen in quite some time. The Astros are 20-31 and managed only six runs in losing two of three to the Twins in Minnesota. Jameson Taillon (2-3, 4.97, 50.2 IP) is due for the Cubs. He has lost his last two starts and was tagged for eight earned runs against the White Sox over five innings of work. He’s been significantly better at home (3.63 v 6.04) and during the day (4.15 v 6.20). So this is as good a spot for Jameson to bounce back as we can find.
As I write, the Astros haven’t yet announced their weekend rotation. But I believe this spot should fall to 26-year old Spencer Arrighetti (5-1, 1.50, 36 IP). Arrighetti would be making his seventh start of the season. The Astros have occasionally employed a six man rotation as they, like so many other teams, struggle with injuries to pitchers. The sixth-round pick of the Astros in 2021 (178th overall) out of Louisiana-Lafayette threw 7.1 scoreless innings against the Rangers last Friday. He allowed just one hit while walking four. He has 35 strikeouts in his 36 innings of work but has also walked 21. This is the kind of guy the Cubs should get to, despite his really good numbers. Some walks and a timely hit or two.
The Astros lineup has been fairly good. They rank ninth in team OPS (.725). That doesn’t drop against right-handed pitching (.728). It also doesn’t drop on the road (.748). So this is no pushover for Taillon. The problem for the Astros has been their pitching (last in ERA at 5.34). Their starting pitching has been a little less bad (5.02) but their bullpen is a mess (5.72).
This is the kind of series where the Cub strategy offensively should work. Patience and persistence. Death by a thousand paper cuts. Get their starters out, get into the pen. Their relievers still strike out a fair number of hitters, but they sport a number of unsightly ERAs and most of them allow more than a hit per inning. There are a few WHIPs north of 2.00.
The turn around starts here.
Go Cubs!
