The Ohio State men’s basketball team (9-3, 1-1) plays four of its first six Big Ten games on the road this season. The Buckeyes overcame a nine-point, second-half deficit in Evanston to defeat Northwestern
86-82 back on Dec. 6. Next week, Jake Diebler’s team will fly out to the Pacific Northwest to face Oregon and Washington in a four-day span.
Northwestern was a good win for the resume — the Wildcats are ranked highly enough in the NET that it still qualifies as a Quad-1 victory. Washington presents an opportunity for another Quad-1 win, and Oregon could be a Quad-2 win that could sweeten into something better as the season goes on (if the Buckeyes are able to win either of those). In between, Ohio State will travel to New Jersey to face the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-6, 0-2) on Friday night.
Rutgers is a little different and is unlike any other road conference game Ohio State will play this season.
Winning on the road in the Big Ten is tough. Just ask Michigan State, a top-10 team in the country that went on the road to Penn State last month and found themselves trailing the Nittany Lions in the final five minutes, before pulling out a 76-72 win to remain undefeated in conference play.
But even the Nittany Lions, who were picked to finish last in SB Nation’s preseason media poll, are ranked high enough in the NET that it was a Quad-3 victory for Michigan State (that could turn into a Quad-2 win if Penn State wins a game or two in conference play).
Rutgers is a land mine hiding in plain sight on Ohio State’s schedule. Sitting at No. 197 in the NET (as of Thursday), the Scarlet Knights are the third-worst Big Ten team since the NET rankings debuted in 2018. That means as of Thursday, this version of Rutgers is not just the worst team in the Big Ten right now, but the third-worst Big Ten team in the past eight seasons, behind only 2019-20 Nebraska (199) and 2022-23 Minnesota (222).
The Scarlet Knights are 49 spots behind the next lowest-ranked Big Ten team this season, with Maryland sitting at No. 147. That means Rutgers is closer to several of Ohio State’s smaller non-conference opponents in the NET than they are to the rest of the Big Ten — for example, Grambling State is 217, Purdue Fort Wayne is 222, and Appalachian State is 227.
A loss to Rutgers on Friday night would be a Quad-3 loss for Ohio State, and based on how the Scarlet Knights’ season is going, it will probably stay that way on the Buckeyes’ resume. A win over the Scarlet Knights would be a Quad-3 win, which does very little for the NCAA Tournament.
Thus, Friday night’s game against the Scarlet Knights should be viewed the same as any other “bye game” on Ohio State’s schedule — Grambling State, Mount Saint Mary’s, Appalachian State, take your pick. Beating Rutgers would improve Ohio State to 2-1 in the Big Ten, but would do virtually nothing for their NCAA Tournament resume. A loss to Rutgers would sit like an anchor on their resume. NCAA Tournament teams don’t take losses like that, and with the lack of big wins on the resume, a loss at Jersey Mike’s Arena could put Ohio State’s tournament hopes on life support two months before Selection Sunday.
There’s very little to gain from beating Rutgers, but everything could be at stake if Ohio State doesn’t get the job done in Jersey Friday night.
This Rutgers team is also the fifth-lowest rated KenPom team of the last decade, clocking in at No. 160 as of Thursday night, just behind known powerhouses UT Arlington and Western Kentucky. They average 68.7 points per game and shoot 40.3% from the floor — both are the lowest marks in the Big Ten. Rutgers is one of just two Big Ten teams (Maryland being the other) that averages more turnovers per game than assists. They have just two players averaging 10 or more points per game — Dylan Grant (14.4 PPG) and Tariq Francis (13.6 PPG).
The most points Rutgers has scored this season against a power conference team was 65 against Purdue back on December 2, an 81-65 loss for the Scarlet Knights. They’re No. 284 in adjusted tempo, making them one of the slowest teams in the nation as well.
Rutgers head coach Steve Pikiell would love nothing more than to look up at the scoreboard Friday night and see 56-54 on the scoreboard with two minutes remaining. That’s the blueprint for the Scarlet Knights to win — slow down the pace, limit Ohio State’s possessions, and force the Buckeyes into taking bad or uncomfortable shots. If they can make it to the final few minutes and stay within a few points, the home crowd at the RAC could carry Rutgers to victory.
It’ll be Ohio State’s responsibility not to let it get to that point. The Buckeyes have been a slow-starting team this year, but a double-digit deficit will be tough for Rutgers to overcome. For the first time this season, Ohio State needs to go full-throttle right from the jump, because allowing Rutgers — and the crowd — to stay in the game for too long could be a disaster.
