Draft day 2026 has arrived! And it is a big one for the Cardinals. With six picks in the top 100, they are set to provide a huge shot in the arm to an already excellent farm system. Like many of you, I have been consuming an unhealthy amount of mock drafts, scouting reports, and podcasts to make sure I am fully prepared for the big day. Well, the day is here and no one really knows what the Cardinals will do. That’s OK, all part of the fun! I’m going to spend most of this article making the case
for why I expect the Cardinals to shock people with their first pick and highlighting some slightly lesser-known prospects that I think they will target. Before we get to the chaos, let’s set the scene.
Details to Know
Day 1 – Rounds 1-4
Time: Saturday, July 11th at 12:00 p.m. CT
Location: Philadelphia, PA
How to watch:
- Picks 1-10: NBC/Peacock
- Picks 11-40: MLB Network, MLB.com, MLB.TV, MLB+
- Picks: 41-135: MLB.com, MLB.TV, MLB+
Day 2 – Rounds 5-20
Time: Sunday, July 12th at 10:30 a.m. CT
How to watch:
- MLB.com, MLB.TV, MLB+
Cardinal Considerations
Bonus Pool: $16,612,300 (6th largest)
Day 1 Picks:
- Pick 13: $5,661,300
- Pick 32: $3,044,600
- Pick 50: $1,982,700
- Pick 68: $1,285,500
- Pick 72: $1,174,300
- Pick 86: $943,600
- Pick 114: $684,300
That is a lot of talent that will be on the way to joining the organization by days end! The industry consensus is that they will target bats early in the draft. They have also been linked to some of the highest-upside and toolsy players in the class.
Today, I want to quickly walk through the “expected” scenario for how the top of the draft will play out and what the Cardinals are projected to do with the 13th overall pick. The 2026 draft class is seen as extremely deep, particularly with the high school class, but there is less differentiation at the top outside of the top three players.
What are the Cardinals expected to do at pick 13?
Alright, twelve teams pick before the Cardinals. The consensus options at the top of the draft can be loosely grouped into four tiers.
Tier 1
At this point, it would be a surprise if Roch Cholowsky (Shortstop, UCLA), Grady Emerson (SS, Fort Worth Christian HS), and Vahn Lackey (C, Georgia Tech) were not picked in some combination at the top three spots; none of them will drop to the Cardinals. I suppose the only intrigue would be one of them falling out of the top three picks and creating a more chaotic domino effect that catches teams off guard.
Tier 2
Eric Booth (OF, Oak Grove HS), Jacob Lombard (Gulliver Prep HS), and Jackson Flora (RHP, UC Santa Barbara) are generally considered to be the next tier of players available. It would be a huge surprise if any of these players fell all the way to pick 13.
Tier 3
Drew Burress (OF, Georgia Tech), Tyler Bell (SS, Kentucky), Ryder Helfrick (C, Arkansas), and Derek Curiel (OF, LSU) arguably make up the final distinct tier of players that are most often mocked ahead of the Cardinals.
Tier 4
I think it is entirely possible that one of the players in the top three tiers slides to the 13th pick, but if they don’t things are wide open. The top college hitters on the board would be Justin Lebron (SS, Alabama), Chris Hacopian (2B, Texas A&M), Ace Reese (3B, Mississippi St.), and AJ Gracia (OF, Virginia).
On the college pitching side, Cameron Flukey (RHP, Coastal Carolina), Hunter Dietz (LHP, Arkansas), Liam Peterson (RHP, Florida), Tegan Kuhns (RHP, Tennessee), and Mason Edwards (LHP, USC) are all first-round candidates that the Cardinals could be considering.
If the Cardinals are set on a high school hitter, Trevor Condon (Etowah HS), and Jared Grindlinger (OF/LHP, Huntington Beach) are the two players most often being mocked to the Cardinals.
The Cardinals are not going to take a high school pitcher with their first pick, but for the sake of completeness, Gio Rojas (LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS), Logan Schmidt (RHP, Ganesha HS), and Coleman Borthwick (RHP, South Walton HS) are all potential first-rounders.
Why the Cardinals Might go Off Script
OK, so I trust the Cardinals front office. If one of the above players is the pick at 13, I won’t be upset. BUT, I really think they will go a different direction than the consensus with their first pick. If you are picking at the top of the draft, sure, you take the best player available. This is what the Cardinals have done the last two years with Wetherholt and Doyle. When you get toward the middle of the first round, there are essentially no “sure things,” so there is more incentive to take risks. This dynamic is even more true for the Cardinals this season because this is a deep draft and they have a bevy of extra picks to deploy. They can take a risk-maxing approach because they don’t have to hit on every pick. They need to maximize their chances of finding a superstar.
Just to illustrate my point about the 13th pick not being a sure thing, I pulled in all players drafted between picks 11-15 in the history of the draft, as well as their associated bWAR. About 2% of players picked in this range turn in Hall of Fame-caliber careers (Max Scherzer, Manny Ramirez, Chase Utley, Chris Sale). A 90th percentile outcome is a 20 WAR career. Think Matt Morris, who was picked 12th overall in 1995. Obviously, we would all take that, but we are talking about a one-in-ten chance. An 80th percentile outcome takes us down to players like Khalil Greene and Hunter Renfroe. The median, or 50th percentile, outcome? Zero career WAR. Less than half the players picked between 11-15 have had any impact at the major league level.
All of that is not to diminish the value of the pick, but just to illustrate that even getting a starting-caliber player out of this slot is a huge win.
What would a Risk-On draft look like?
So, if the Cardinals embrace chaos and swing for the metaphorical fences, what might that look like and which players might they target?
We have some good reference points to triangulate what Chaim Bloom and Randy Flores will be targeting in the draft. Looking at Randy Flores’ track record running things, the way the Red Sox ran their drafts when Bloom was in charge, and the types of players the Cardinals have targeted since Bloom arrived (both before and after his official POBA elevation), we can use some deductive reasoning to identify players they will and will not target.
Don’t be surprised if…
The Cardinals do not go after premium high school pitchers
Under Flores, the Cardinals have had 32 picks in the top 100 and have drafted a high school pitcher one time, Tink Hence in 2020. Chaim Bloom drafted zero high school pitchers in the first 100 picks while with the Red Sox and one overall. I know it is supposed to be a banner year for high school pitchers, but I will be shocked if the Cardinals take a high school pitcher within their first six picks.
The Cardinals go under-slot at pick 13
In three of the four Chaim Bloom-led drafts with the Red Sox, players were signed well below slot. Twice, the Sox came completely out of left field to draft players ranked well out of the first-round range. The only time Bloom played it straight was when the Red Sox had the fourth overall pick and selected Marcelo Mayer.
The Cardinals go after multiple high school power bats
Again, referring back to Chaim’s Boston days, the Red Sox had 11 top 100 picks and used eight of them on high school position players. That is 72% of total picks used on this specific demographic when the rest of the league selected this demographic 21% of the time.
The pattern was consistent, the Red Sox used their top selection on a polished high schooler with a relatively high floor (Marcelo Mayer, Nick Yorke, and Mikey Romero), and then turned their attention to high volatility riskier picks further down in the draft. The archetype of the players that were targeted was fairly consistent: Big-time power, strike-zone judgment or the ability to recognize spin, some swing-and-miss concerns, and little attention paid to defensive value.
I would argue that Ryan Mitchell, the Cardinals’ second-round pick last season, reinforces Bloom’s preference for zone discipline. The Cardinals didn’t have the picks and budget last year to pick multiple high schoolers, so they chose to go with a relatively lower risk prospect in Mitchell.
The Cardinals continue to focus on college pitchers with big fastballs
This prediction is pretty obvious and won’t be controversial. Last season, the Cardinals took two of the best fastballs in the draft in Liam Doyle and Tanner Franklin. Without a chance to go after a pitcher of Doyle’s caliber, I would expect the first ten rounds to be full of big fastball college pitchers.
In my opinion, the Cardinals’ central focus for the draft will be prep bats. There are a ton of options out there, but to narrow it down, I focused on players that have great power potential, control the strike zone, and have some projectability remaining. I think traits that are relatively de-emphasized in the high school profile Bloom prefers are pure hitting ability, contact, defense, and speed. Obviously, everyone prefers that a player have all of these tools, but if there are some you think are easier to develop or harder to project, you would certainly weight those a bit lower.
Here is the list of top-100 range prospects that I think most closely fit their target profile.
High School Bats to Watch
Bo Lowrance, 3B, Christ Church Episcopal HS
MLB Pipeline Rank: 21
Why he might be a fit: Power and projectability
Lowrance is listed at 6’5” and 205 pounds and still has a ton of room to fill out. He has the power and projectability that the Cardinals crave as one of the highest-upside players in the draft. The thing that sets Lowrance apart from some of the other power-hitting prepsters is his solid hit tool. He has good control of the strike zone and makes enough contact to project as an average hit tool. Due to his size, he is expected to end up at a corner infield or outfield position.
Lowrance was ranked in the 30s and 40s most of the year, but has been climbing as the draft approaches. FanGraphs ranks him as the seventh best player in the class and multiple mocks have him tied to the Padres at 21, so the Cardinals may have to use their first pick on him if he is their top target.
James Clark, SS, St. John Bosco HS (CA)
MLB Pipeline Rank: 39
Why he might be a fit: Control the zone
Clark is seen as one of the best pure hitters in the high school class. He has great command of the strike zone and a good feel for barreling up the baseball. He is not a guarantee to stick at short, but is a good athlete and still has projection remaining. His profile overall comes off as a little boring, but he strikes me as someone that could fit as an under-slot option at 13 or even 32.
Connor Comeau, SS, L.C. Anderson HS (TX)
MLB Pipeline Rank: 55
Why he might be a fit: Zone control, projectability
Comeau is young for his class as he does not turn 18 until August. At 6’4” and 180 pounds, there is some power projection, but he already has one of the best plate approaches in the draft. He has a gorgeous left-handed swing that looks effortless but has still produced an excellent max exit velocity of around 110 MPH. Comeau is not expected to stick at shortstop, but he is considered a good athlete that should be able to stay on the infield. The Cardinals have long had a preference for players that were young for their class. Despite not having the present power of some of his classmates, the combination of offensive polish and projectability could make Comeau a perfect under-slot option at 13.
Landon Thome, SS, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)
MLB Pipeline Rank: 34
Why he might be a fit: Power
Yes, Landon is the son of Hall of Famer Jim Thome. Landon has an above-average hit tool to go along with above-average raw power. He is not a lock to stick at shortstop, but he has solid tools across the board. Pretty much every scouting report mentions how fast his hands are and how well he gets to his pull-side power. He has had some issues with swing and miss, but if the Cardinals believe in his power, this might not be a deal breaker. The Cardinals could surely go under-slot if they took Thome at 13, or try to float him to one of their later picks with an over-slot bonus.
Blake Bowen, OF, JSerra Catholic HS (CA)
MLB Pipeline Rank: 63
Why he might be a fit: Power and projectability
Bowen is a former football player with massive raw power as evidenced by his 113.8 MPH max EV at the MLB draft combine. Standing from the right side of the plate, he already has the look of a hulking slugger. Despite a 6’3”, 215 pound frame, Bowen also has above-average speed and a chance to stick in center field. His hit tool, both in terms of swing decisions and contact, is not as advanced, so he is an extremely risky profile. Still, this is the exact type of high-upside hitter I would expect the Cardinals to take a shot or two at. He is ranked in the 60 to 70 range by most outlets, so if the Cardinals do like him, they should have multiple opportunities to pick him.
Kevin Roberts, OF, Jackson Prep HS (MS)
MLB Pipeline Rank: 136
Why he might be a fit: Power and projectability
Roberts is ranked a little further down the board, but he has some of the best tools in the class with plus power and speed. He is listed at 6’5” and 220 pounds and looks like he could fill out even more. He has touched 94 off the mound, so he could profile as a right fielder if he does not stick in center. As a final bonus, he is one of the younger players in the draft class as he does not turn 18 until the end of July.
The knock on Roberts is that he is incredibly raw and may not hit enough to leverage his otherwise brilliant tools. He is from the same high school as Konnor Griffin, so I thought it would be interesting to compare their strikeout rates. Griffin struck out 6% of the time his senior season while popping nine home runs. Roberts struck out in 17% of his plate appearances while hitting ten home runs.
It might be a stretch to include Roberts in potential Cardinals targets, but his profile is interesting enough that I thought he was worth mentioning.
Martin Shelar, OF, Marist School (GA)
MLB Pipeline Rank: 175
Why he might be a fit: Power
Martin Shelar, not to be confused with Martin Shkreli, has arguably the best raw power among high schoolers in the draft. The right-handed batter blasted 19 home runs this spring and topped out at 115.5 MPH max exit velocity at the combine. To go with the prodigious power, Shelar has above-average speed and arm strength to project as a good outfield defender. So why does he rank outside the top 100 on most draft boards? Shelar deploys a violent uppercut swing that some scouts worry will not translate to pro ball. Despite the swing, Shelar has not yet struggled to make contact at the high school level. If you believe in the hit tool and contact ability at all, Shelar could land much higher in the draft than currently projected.
I won’t go as deep on the pitching side, but I do want to highlight a handful of the best fastballs in the draft that are not expected to go in the first round. The Cardinals have not been shy about targeting top-tier fastballs, even if there is a high degree of relief risk or injury history.
Hunting Fastballs
Cal Randall, RHP, UCLA (CA)
MLB Pipeline Rank: 218
Randall is like an extreme version of Tanner Franklin. He has worked exclusively out of the bullpen in his three years at UCLA and was second in the nation in strikeout percentage at 44.2%. He racked up these strikeouts by throwing one of the best fastballs in the nation 89% of the time. That is just absurd. Getting that much swing and miss when every batter knows what is coming is just hard to believe. Randall works his riding, high spin fastball in the upper 90s while topping out over 100 MPH. The pitch is delivered from a low release point with induced vertical break that has been over 20 inches at times.
As you probably have guessed, he struggles with control, walking over five per nine each year of his career, and does not have any secondaries that grade out even close to average. At 6’4” and 235 pounds, he has a starter’s build. If the Cardinals, or any team, think they can teach him control and a secondary pitch, he could be a high priority target.
Carson Wiggins, RHP, Arkansas (AR)
MLB Pipeline Rank: 88
If Randall is too safe and boring for you, Wiggins ups the ante even further. He has thrown a total of 14 college innings at Arkansas before an elbow injury and internal brace surgery wiped out the rest of his 2025 season and all of 2026. Despite the obvious warts, Wiggins has one of the best fastballs in the class. He was up to 99 MPH as a high school senior and hit 102 in his brief cameo at Arkansas. MLB pipeline slapped an 80 grade on the pitch. Wiggins was able to get back and throwing for the combine and topped out at 97. Coming out of high school, Wiggins’ slider graded out as above average, but he dealt with spotty command.
Eric Nachtsheim, RHP, McNeese State (LA)
MLB Pipeline Rank: 213
Nachtsheim’s fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s while topping out at 97 MPH. The fastball velocity is solid, but it is the shape that makes it one of the top pitches in the draft. He cuts and rides the pitch to generate a very unique movement profile that he leaned on to strike out 125 batters in just 85 innings at McNeese State. Nachtsheim started eight games this spring, after pitching in relief for most of the last two years. None of his secondaries are even average, but he does have a slider, curveball, and changeup. Beyond the excellent fastball, another reason to keep an eye on Nachtsheim is that he is one of the top college seniors in the draft. If the Cardinals really like his fastball and/or need to go under-slot on an early pick, he could be an excellent choice.
Prediction Time!
Alright, so if I am going to be wrong in my prediction, I might as well get super specific.
I think the Cardinals are going to prioritize and target both Blake Bowen and Martin Shelar on the hitter side between picks 50 and 86. This would give the Cardinals two of the highest-ceiling power bats in the draft and give them multiple shots on goal for a middle-of-the-order hitter.
We are committed now, so we might as well keep shooting for the moon and we need to take a shot at an elite arm. Carson Wiggins is our guy. He gives the Cardinals a Doyle/Franklin tier fastball without having to use a top pick. Sure he has an insanely risky profile, but the Cardinals essentially paid the Red Sox $20M for Brandon Clarke last offseason, so don’t put it past them!
Wiggins is a draft-eligible sophomore and Bowen and Shelar will require big signing bonuses as high schoolers, so this is going to be expensive… The best route is to take an under-slot college player at 13 to save some money, right? WRONG! We still need one more prep bat on Day 1. We can knock out both the savings and the prep bat objective with…
Pick 13: Connor Comeau, SS, L. C. Anderson HS (TX)
The Cardinals will turn to a high floor and under-slot prep bat. Comeau is the best of both worlds with a relatively polished profile, but also a ton of projection left. With more of a second-round projection, I would think he could be signed for close to the maximum 25% discount and give the Cardinals an additional $1.4M to take a real risk later on.
So, at this point, we are looking at something like:
Pick 13: Connor Comeau, SS, L. C. Anderson HS (TX)
Pick 32: $3,044,600
Pick 50: Blake Bowen, OF, JSerra Catholic HS (CA)
Pick 68: $1,285,500
Pick 72: Martin Shelar, OF, Marist School (GA)
Pick 86: Carson Wiggins, RHP, Arkansas (AR)
Pick 114: $684,300
From here, you still have three top picks to fill in with your favorite college bat or college arm to do a little derisking at picks 32, 68, and 114.
There you have it! I hope everyone has a solid six hours carved out today to follow the draft and celebrate the next iterations of Cardinals prospects to dream on. Go Cards!
