College football has evolved so rapidly over the last several years, and there are an increasing variety of ways to break down any given Saturday.
Here on Scarlet Spreadsheet, we are going to compile all of the various analytical models to get the best possible preview of each of Ohio State’s matchups throughout the 2026 season based on the underlying numbers and metrics.
Prior to the season, we thought Ohio State vs. Oregon would be a College Football Playoff preview between two of the best teams
in the country. While the two sides remain loaded with talent, both programs are now without their starting quarterback, and the Buckeyes and Ducks are now each searching for answers.
Ryan Day’s group has their backs against the wall, as Ohio State’s No. 12 ranking in the year’s first College Football Playoff Rankings has them on the outside looking in. A win over the No. 23 Ducks would get the sour taste out of everyone’s mouth from a poor showing at USC, and put them back in the driver’s seat for a strong finish to the 2026 season.
Football Power Index
Ohio State
- FPI: 26.2 (Rank: 3)
- Proj. W-L: 9.8-2.9
- Win Out %: 35.9
- Win Conf. %: 43.5
- CFP %: 74.4
- Make NC %: 21.4
- Win NC %: 11.9
Oregon
- FPI: 17.4 (Rank: 12)
- Proj. W-L: 7.6-4.4
- Win Out %: 6.7
- Win Conf. %: 2.6
- CFP %: 4.8
- Make NC %: 0.3
- Win NC %: 0.1
FPI Matchup Predictor: Ohio State 83.2%
SP+
Ohio State
- Rank: No. 2 (down 1 from last week)
- Rating: 26.3
- Offense: 37.9 (8th)
- Defense: 11.7 (3rd)
- Special Teams: 0.2 (56th)
Oregon
- Rank: No. 12 (no change from last week)
- Rating: 17.2
- Offense: 33.9 (24th)
- Defense: 17.0 (18th)
- Special Teams: 0.3 (36th)
Matchup
Projected Winner: Ohio Sate
- Projected Margin: 11.6 points
- Win Probability: 77%
- Projected Score (rounded): 31-19
- *These projections are not QB adjusted*
Computer Models
Sagarin Rankings
- Ohio State: 92.01 (5th)
- Oregon: 86.41 (12th)
The Power Rank
- Ohio State: 23.93 (2nd)
- Oregon: 17.67 (11th)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State will beat Oregon by 9.1 at home (75% win chance)
Massey Ratings
- Ohio State: 9.04 (4th)
- Offense: 67.78 (4th)
- Defense: 42.96 (1st)
- Oregon: 8.49 (19th)
- Offense: 65.35 (9th)
- Defense: 38.38 (11th)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State 28, Oregon 21 (67% win probability)
Advanced Metrics
Prior Meetings
These two programs have meet surprisingly sparingly through the years, with Ohio State leading the all-time series 10-2.
Ohio State and Oregon have split the last four meetings, but the Buckeyes will gladly take a National Championship victory and a blowout win in the Rose Bowl over a pair of hotly contested regular season matchups.
Prior to those two wins by the Ducks, Ohio State won all nine of the prior meetings. That said, Oregon did emerge victorious the last time these two teams played in Columbus, a 35-28 contest in 2021.
As the season goes along the Scarlet Spreadsheet for each Ohio State game will include up-to-date in-season models and analytics, breaking down each matchup down to the numbers and underlying metrics.
