We’re close to mid-February, the Tigers have crept back onto the good side of the bubble. Let’s review their team sheet and what’s ahead of them.
First, the sheet:
This is plucked from WarrenNolan.com, which is a useful tool whenever you want to check out these sorts of things.
So the main thing you can do is ignore Q4 games. Provided there are no blemishes, the committee doesn’t pay attention to those. If you have a Q4 loss, it’s obviously bad. But the only other bad thing that can happen here is too many Q4 wins. Mostly though, the committee is looking at Quads 1 through 3.
The Quads are based on the NCAA’s NET ranking, the NET is updated every
morning. It’s always in flux which is one reason why I usually tell people to ignore the exact rankings this far out. We still have three and a half weeks of regular season games. But let’s review the flexibility here and see where things are trending, and maybe what teams you want to pay attention to which might help Mizzou’s team sheet.
Another reminder is that Mizzou’s NET ranking isn’t all that important. Yes it’s an indicator of quality, but what matters are things like Wins Above Bubble, and KPI. Two metrics that measure win and loss quality. Mizzou is 57th in the NET, 49th in WAB. The most important thing they can do is keep winning.
For NET rankings, Home games are considered:
- 1-15 = Q1A
- 16-30 = Q1
- 31-75 = Q2
- 76-160 = Q3
- 161+ = Q4
Road games are:
- 1-40 = Q1A
- 41-75 = Q1
- 76-135 = Q2
- 136-240 = Q3
- 240+ = Q4
Mizzou’s two neutral games were losses. Both Kansas and Illinois have proven to be good enough those won’t fall out of Q1. With 7 games remaining, there are five Q1 opportunities left on the schedule right now, and two Q2s. This is all something that can change. But here’s what’s unlikely to change:
- 8 Q4 wins
- 3 Q1 wins (Florida, Kentucky, Texas A&M)
- 3 Q1 losses (Illinois, Kansas, Alabama)
- 2 Q2 wins (Oklahoma, South Carolina)
- 1 Q3 win (Mississippi State)
There is flexibility with the rest. Mizzou needs LSU and Ole Miss to play better, LSU is a Q1 loss but they’re 64th in the NET and sliding. Ole Miss is a Q2 loss and they’re 85th in the NET. Georgia and Auburn are both at the cusp of being in the top 30, which would flip those current Q2 results into Q1. Texas is 38th.
The easiest thing here is for Mizzou to just win all their games. 10-8 probably gets them in, 11-7 very certainly does. 12-6 and you’re worried more about your seed line than if you’re getting in. Anyway, beat Texas.
Yesterday at Rock M and Rock M+
Mizzou Women’s Basketball took the court last night and got hammered by Tennessee in what was supposed to be Kellie Harper’s homecoming. I mean it was a homecoming, just not a warm one. Dylan previewed the game with his regular Hoopin’ and Hollerin’ post, and then recapped it, but it was pretty ugly:
The game was never really competitive as a 15-4 run helped Tennessee take a 29-13 lead at the end of the first quarter. This marked the largest loss for the Tigers under Harper and the first 40-plus point loss since Vanderbilt in March 2025.
I’m willing to give this game a mulligan. Harper is playing short handed a bit due to some injuries, they’ve been better overall despite some roster shortcomings. And Tennessee was coming off their own embarrassing loss, something that usually causes a good quality team like the Vols to swing back on. Add all those up and you could see this one possibly getting away from them.
- With MBB and fans still floating about the Tigers Quad 1 win at Texas A&M on Tuesday, I finished Study Hall with some thoughts on how Dennis Gates manages his players, even if it sometimes frustrates us:
Shawn Phillips delivering the two plays Missouri needed to secure the win is a quintessential Gates moment. For all the things Phillips is, and isn’t, his coach believes in him. It’s a confidence Gates instills in his roster in a way that we haven’t really seen from a Missouri coach before. It doesn’t always work out (see Georgia), and at times this season has been bumpier than we wanted… but that’s his style and approach.
- The Good News is the win seems to have pushed the Tigers onto the right side of the bubble per Joe Lindardi, but our own @DataMizzou on Rock M+ thinks Dennis Gates’ squad still has some work to do ($):
Mizzou overall is looking solid for getting in, RIGHT NOW. I mean, the’re four slots away from being out, so it’s not comfortable at all. However, when you slide across, they measure well withing in the group in resume rating average (a very important category, perhaps THE most), Quad 1A wins (the top half of Quad 1) and Quad 1 wins. They’ve made up ground in picking up some Quad 2 wins, with Oklahoma backdooring their way in after they played and Auburn slipping from Quad 1 status.
Watkins system is excellent and even more accurate than Lunardi when it comes to teams in AND seed lines.
- Sophie Silvers previewed Track & Fields upcoming two day invitational at Arkansas’ Randal Tyson Track Center:
Friday begins early in the afternoon with university sprint and distance races, starting at 1:20 p.m. The 60-meter prelims race throughout the afternoon with 3,000 meters, hurdles and 400-meter events. Championship WA Silver events will take over the evening, including 60 meters, 400 meters, 800 meters, hurdles and 3,000 meters.
Friday field events run alongside the track schedule, beginning at 1:15 p.m., with men’s pole vault and weight throw, adding long jump events mid-afternoon, and concluding with championship field events in the evening. Saturday starts late in the morning with longer distance races such as the 5,000 and the mile, followed by university and championship 200 and 800, mile championships and 4×400 relays in the afternoon.
- Then on the Forums we had a discussion on which program you’d most like to see Missouri add as a home and home opponent.
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