Last week, action in the Arizona Fall League wrapped up, and with it, so did the last of MLB-affiliated professional baseball in 2025. From play beginning in October and ending early last week, the Peoria
Javelinas team that contained prospects from the Orioles and five other MLB teams played to a 12-15 record, with four of the O’s prospects playing well enough to qualify for the Fall Stars Game, the All-Star celebration for the league.
Performance in the AFL is not a guarantee of future success or failure once players go back to their organizations next year. Some guys overcome a bad time in the AFL and for others, success ends up being more of a mirage. These are all small sample sizes to the extreme. The AFL leader in plate appearances went to the plate 104 times, which is around 15% of a full season of hitting for an MLB player. It’s a similar story for pitchers. The league leader in innings pitched tossed 22 IP.
My standard for small sample sizes is this: It’s better to have to pump the brakes on excitement over a positive small sample than to have to rationalize why a negative small sample isn’t that bad, actually. With that in mind, here’s how the Orioles minor leaguers performed out in the desert.
Enrique Bradfield
AFL batting: .221/.341/.312, 17 stolen bases in 18 attempts
It’s unusual to see a player who’s already reached Triple-A get assigned to play in the AFL. For Bradfield, this was probably about getting some extra development time in after being limited to just 65 appropriate-level games in the regular season. At 23, he was older than the average competition by more than a year.
Things were going well for Bradfield for a few weeks out in Arizona. That’s why he was named to the Fall Stars Game. However, his hitting really collapsed over the final stretch of games, reducing him to the level you see above. The Orioles aren’t going to be judging him on his batting line. They probably had development goals for him to work on out there. One thing I think we can safely say is that Bradfield isn’t going to be the Orioles Opening Day 2026 center fielder, so the team will have to find one from elsewhere.
Ethan Anderson
AFL batting: .300/.398/.443 in 19 games
Anderson was also named to the Fall Stars Game. This was some nice hitting for the catcher/first baseman. If you’re wondering what is the difference between that batting line and an actual top prospect’s, Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle, the #2 prospect in the game on MLB Pipeline, batted .362/.500/.710 while hitting five homers in 19 games.
Still, this is a nice outcome for Anderson. He spent much of the season lumped in with the “cursed Orioles 2024 draft class” narrative going on at High-A Aberdeen, as struggles by him and outfielder Austin Overn got lumped together with the mega-struggles of Vance Honeycutt. Overn and Anderson rebounded and got promoted by season’s end. Anderson having a decent time in the desert doesn’t hurt his case for showing he was better than what was happening at Aberdeen. He is probably going to need to find more power if he is going to be a major league catcher/first baseman.
Thomas Sosa
AFL batting: .170/.240/.244 in 13 games
Just 20 years old, Sosa was one of the younger players here in the AFL, about two years younger than the average competition he faced. Not much positive spin to put on this except to say that since he’s still young he’s got a lot of time for things to change. Sosa struck out in 30% of his plate appearances after going at a 25% rate in the regular season. The Orioles have been fairly aggressive in promoting him up through the minors. I’ll be interested to see how he does with a Double-A assignment to begin next season.
Luis De Leòn
AFL pitching: 2.76 ERA, 1.347 WHIP in 16.1 innings
The 22-year-old lefty De Leòn was the most interesting pitcher the Orioles sent out to Peoria. He showed the good and the bad in his limited AFL action. He strikes out a lot of guys – 22 in his 16.1 innings, which is probably what got him into the Fall Stars Game. He also walked way too many guys, issuing 12 free passes in the same stretch of time. Similar to Bradfield, it’s quite possible there was some intention here, with the Orioles wanting De Leòn to work on specific things in real-ish game action.
The learning time is more important than the results. There will need to be something good to show for it eventually. De Leòn did make some strides with his walk rate in the regular season compared to his younger years, so hopefully that will be what carries over to 2026.
Carson Dorsey
AFL pitching: 3.68 ERA, 1.409 WHIP in 22 innings
Dorsey, also 22, was drafted by the Orioles in the seventh round a year ago. He threw more innings than any other pitcher in this year’s AFL. He also had an elevated walk rate, issuing 13 walks, and does not have many strikeouts going in his favor. A 7.0 K/9 isn’t getting anyone’s attention. Good job for him getting through the AFL. The Orioles will probably send him to High-A next year – it’ll be in Frederick again – and we can see how he does there.
Tanner Smith
AFL pitching: 3.52 ERA, 1.307 WHIP in 7.1 innings
Smith is a reliever, so everything about small sample sizes applies even more to him. This was seven outings worth of work, maybe like 12% of a regular season for a trusted major league reliever. He struck out 13 of the 33 batters he faced, and unlike the others, didn’t do too bad with walks (3.5 BB/9). The Orioles got the Harvard-educated Smith as one of six players in that mega-trade with the Padres in July. He’s only got four High-A games under his belt, so the team might start him at that level again next year, but if he does well, he could move up quickly. Smith rounded out the Orioles quartet of Fall Stars.
Sayer Diederich
AFL pitching: 2.75 ERA, 1.174 WHIP in 7.2 innings
Undrafted and unsigned out of college, Diederich was pitching in independent ball when the Orioles signed him into the minors. He pitched for Low-A Delmarva this year, where at 24 he was way older than the competition. He pitched fairly well there, which must be taken with a grain of salt, but good for him. His time in the AFL is similar. The Orioles of a year or two down the road will probably be looking for relievers and if Diederich can figure out higher-level competition, he could get himself in the mix.
Brandon Downer
AFL pitching: 1.00 ERA, 0.778 WHIP in 9 innings
Downer was a 13th round pick by the Orioles last year. By season’s end, he’d pitched five games with Delmarva. You would have to go pretty deep on a list of Orioles prospects to reach him. Can’t complain about anything he did in this stint in Peoria’s bullpen, though.
**
There were some good things going on among this group from players who could make an actual impact on the big league Orioles in the future, so it’s hard to complain too much about what happened with this group in Peoria. It’s also hard to say this was a smashing success without the highest-profile prospect (Bradfield) finishing with his results in a good place.
Although Peoria was below-.500, the AFL’s kind of free-for-all playoff structure allowed them to play their way into the championship game, where they came up short. For the Orioles prospects, hopefully this was a good learning experience that they will be able to carry with them into the next regular season and continue their development.
