‘Canes fans we’re into October already and the Miami Hurricanes (4-0) and heading to Clemson, SC to face the Clemson Tigers (3-1) in Death Valley.
Per ESPN, Miami has an 87.4% win probability and are a ~17 point spread favorite. The game will be on primetime ABC at 7:30pm.
The Doppler
Per Bill Connelly’s SP+ Miami is currently 5th in FBS overall while Clemson is 54th. The ’Canes are 8th on offense, 8th on defense, and 33rd in kicking. The Tigers are 91st on offense, 24th on defense and 19th in kicking.
The Hurricanes
are 7th in scoring offense at 43.3 PPG while the Tigers are 90th only scoring 21 PPG. The Miami defense is 3rd in FBS allowing only 9.7 PPG. CU is 47th while allowing 22 PPG.
The ‘Canes are 3rd in FBS on 3rd down conversion offense. Miami is picking up the 1st down 58% of the time. Clemson is 124th in the country only converting on 24% of their tries. Miami and Clemson are both batting 1.000 on 4th down conversions.
On defense, Miami is 51st in 3rd down conversion rate allowing 37% of their opponents attempts. Clemson is 68th while allowing 39% but have faced a good LSU offense.
The Tigers are 79th in turnover margin per game with -0.3, while Miami is 32nd with +0.7.
The ‘Canes are 124th in FBS in penalty yards per game with 77.3 in flags. Clemson is 72nd with 57.3 yards in penalties per game.
The Film
We’re going to take a look at the 24-10 win for Clemson over Cal in the late show out in Berkley, CA. As ‘Canes fans know, those can be really tricky games in general regarding a CA road trip, now add in a Friday night and a 10:30pm kickoff and it’s a recipe for disaster.
The Tigers offense finished the game 9-of-17 on money downs, while Cal was held to 3-of-14. I don’t think 3rd downs will come as easy for Miami vs. Clemson as they have vs. Stanford, Wake and CMU.
Both teams turned the ball over twice, and both Tiger turnovers were by QB Tait Reynolds (INT, fumble). Clemson was flagged for 63 yards vs. Cal.
Familiar face Chris Johnson Jr. averaged 22.3 yards per KR for Clemson vs. Cal, while Bryant Wesco Jr. returned a punt for a TD and the Tigers missed a FG.
CLEMSON OFFENSE
QB Christopher Vizzina was out against Cal and freshman Tait Reynolds was behind center. Reynolds averaged only 5.1 yards per attempt with an INT. He also ran the ball 11 times for 28 yards.
Reynolds found seven different Tigers receivers but only one was for double-digit yards per catch. His favorite target was senior WR Tyler Brown for 9.7 yards per catch.
On the ground RB Gideon Davidson averaged 7.2 yards per rush and two scores. Jarvis Green also averaged 4.4 yards per carry and Johnson Jr. hit only 3.2 YPC.
The Tigers OL allowed two sacks and five TFL’s.
Above– The ol’ Flea Flicker. Clemson absolutely called this too early, and Cal was ready for it. They’ve got a safety deep and Reynolds STILL throws it. These plays alwys need a check down guy short and in the flats, instead he’s just shallow of the play itself.
Above– If Miami defenders still want to come in full speed and dive they’re not getting Davidson down that way. Poyser is going to have to stay on his feet, come to balance, and shoot his eyes behind the thigh and around around them.
Above– Lightfoot should feast (think 2-2.5 sacks) and I’d expect him to force a fumble on a strip sack. Reynolds is far too sloppy with the football.
Above– The Bash concept. Pullers go right, RB goes left. If that circled DE squeezes you hand off. The DE stepped inside so the Q gave and the RB will follow the lead blocker (21?) to the left. If the DE stepped outside the Q pulls and follows the two pullers.
Above– Reynolds isn’t that athletic, and surely not enough to run on guys like Lightfoot and Wilson. I hope Blount is playing this week as he’ll be needed to hold down the edge vs. Davidson.
Above– Cal fails to vice tackle this (both players closing together high/low) and neither makes the play. Miami has to clean up some of their open field tackling.
Above– Clemson goes to the single wing direct snap to the RB. They create a nice bubble there for the ball carrier to score. Toure and Smith are actually good for this type of downhill look. I’d be more concerned with 11 there on the right running a delayed corner route.
Above– Toure is great in these delayed blitz situations. Cal LB slips right through and lights up Reynolds. When it comes to young QB’s hit them early and often (well… all QB’s, really).
Above– 9 on Cal starts where the circle is and winds up in the A-Gap. It leaves a massive bubble (really two) for the RB to hit. The WR picks the FS and it’s a house call. Miami has had a tendency to do this with Toure jumping gaps and leaving a massive hole hoping 25 or 7 can save the TD.
CLEMSON DEFENSE
Cal’s lone touchdown vs the Tigers came on defense, a fumble recovery scoop and score. The Clemson defense held Cal’s offense to three points with two sacks, four TFL’s and five PBU’s.
Clemson shutdown Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (JKS) holding him to 4.1 yards per pass attempt with two picks. JKS found seven different targets but only two were for double-digit yard per catch marks.
The Cal run game did not have Clemson’s spark as the backs averaged 3.9, 4.4 and 3.5 yards per carry with Adam Mohammed shouldering the load.
Above– Ben Congdon needs to start at LG. There’s no way you can deny him that after Sat’s game, CMU or not. The big bodies need to be on the field vs. this Clemson DL.
Above– This is an auto throw look with 3 offensive players over 2 defenders. Upshaw should take some of these reps off of Toney’s plate as the season progresses.
Above– This is beyond an even/leavin’ and it’s the defense that looks like it’s on offense. Eventually JKS under throws the ball but the Clemson CB still looks like the intended target. Clemson DB’s do have ball skills but I worry more about the WR’s not fighting and high pointing more than Mensah not putting up a good ball.
Above– Cal ran counter vs. Clemson with some success. I would love to see Congdon kicking out and Lofton wrapping for Miami. Let the big guy smack a DE in the face.
Above– The Clemson DL still has great hands and they have multiple pass rush moves in their arsenal. For all the ‘falling off’ the Tigers have done they have ability on defense and DL. Max Buchanan has to keep his eyes up, chest square, and wait to strike.
Above– Here are two Tiger defenders in the backfield and neither makes the stop. Clemson isn’t at the tier they once were and Mark Fletcher and Girard Pringle are the backs I would feature vs. them.
Above– Bubble swing to the deep shot… is this the week we see a Toney trick play come out of the bag? They tried one vs. Wake Forest if I’m not mistaken and the throw wasn’t there. Maybe this week??
CLEMSON KICKING GAME
Above– The ‘Canes kicking game is flawed and I can see something going drastically wrong vs. a PR like Bryant Wesco Jr. Miami needs to emphasize tracking and tackling on Punt this week.
The Forecast
The Canyonero Keys to Victory main theme from summer was that this matchup would be a “Cadillac of Games” matchup. I still think this is a big game, and so do the powers that be at ESPN/ABC. The three individual keys are:
1- Tighten up the kicking game. If Miami allows a punt return TD or an explosive KR from Johnson Jr. early on the Death Valley crowd could get rowdier than rowdy. That non-offensive scoring could keep the Tigers alive in a game they shouldn’t be able to keep up in offensively.
2- Stop the Clemson run game. Davidson went off vs. Cal and the ‘Canes can’t miss tackles and dive at the heels of a good back like Davidson. LSU held him to 2.9 YPC but he ripped off 6.6 vs UNC. If Miami is a playoff contender they have to handle him like LSU, not like the Heels didn’t.
3- START CONGDON AT LG. It’s time, start the freshman at left guard. Ben Congdon had a plus game against CMU and I realize they’re just a G6 team, and a bad one at that, but it was a clear and obvious improvement over the other LG. Let the young fella go to work, I thought Ryan Rodriguez looked improved next to him as well.
Score Prediction: Miami by 14. Even at home the Clemson offense won’t be able to keep up with the ‘Canes scoring machine of Mensah and Toney. Add in the OL starting to gel and Tait Reynolds facing off on primetime against Marquis Lightfoot… I just can’t see the Tigers putting up more than 14 on Miami and the ‘Canes will score 28+.
