This weekend, the Baseball Hall of Fame will announce the results of its Contemporary Era ballot. It is a star-studded list of names, featuring Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Carlos Delgado, Dale Murphy,
Gary Sheffield, Fernando Valenzuela, and Yankee great Don Mattingly. Whether they are former All-Stars and MVPs who hit the original ballot as borderline cases, or all-time greats whose legacies are shrouded by scandal, it is a list that features fascinating Hall of Fame cases.
The Hall of Fame can be a tricky subject — it is easy to frame as just a simple and highly subjective accolade, and just as easy as the single greatest achievement a baseball player can have. It doesn’t really matter, and then again, it matters a great deal. It would be fair to guess it would mean a lot to a player like Don Mattingly.
On a statistical basis, despite the high peak, it is maybe a stretch to even call Mattingly a true borderline candidate, amongst other players from similar times and circumstances. As always, Jay Jaffe laid out the validity of his case at FanGraphs, and it is certainly a shaky one.
Mattingly’s career began in 1982, and kicked off with a pedestrian and relatively short first two seasons in the Bronx. What followed was one of the better peaks of any player in his generation. Starting in 1984, Mattingly rattled off six consecutive All-Star seasons, won the MVP with a career-high 35 homers in ‘85, and was arguably even better the next year, boasting a league-best 161 OPS+. He received MVP votes in five of those seasons, won four Gold Glove awards, and three Silver Slugger awards. Anyone reading this site is likely aware of how good he was at his best.
But then, right around age-30, the injury bug reared its ugly head. Mattingly began to become seriously affected by nagging injuries, particularly in his back. He played a handful more full seasons, but he was never quite the same, and retired after 1995, his age 35-season, never coming particularly close to the peak he reached in the late 80s.
The unfortunate and pre-mature ending to his career certainly did a number on what looked to be a Hall of Fame-level career — which brings us to his current situation.
Mattingly first hit the Hall of Fame ballot in 2001, debuting with 28.2 percent of the vote, well short of the necessary 75 percent, but also with plenty of cushion from falling off the ballot entirely. He would never again reach as high as that mark, spending the next 14 election cycles toiling around 10-12 percent. There was some support, but clearly not enough to get him elected through this avenue.
Despite the generally positive sentiment surrounding his legacy, and his importance to the Yankees franchise in a trying time with often little else to root for, Mattingly gained little traction in finding his way to Cooperstown. 2015 was his final year on the primary ballot, and his 9.1 percent mark was the lowest of his 15 years as a candidate.
But, he was also given an avenue for growing his resume, when he was hired as a manager. It was a venture that saw varying levels of success (and an odd Manager of the Year Award in 2020), but did little to build on his excellent but maybe not Hall-worthy career as a player.
He had his next chance at alternative entry into the Hall in 2018, when he was featured on the Eras Committee ballot. Still needing 75 percent on this ballot, Mattingly did not come particularly close in that year’s cycle. He was on the ballot again in 2020, and once again fell well short of the mark for enshrinement. The former Yankee captain had his next chance in ‘23 and actually made up some ground. With 50 percent of the vote that year, Mattingly was just four votes shy of induction — this was some real progress.
Now up for election again via the Eras Committee, that progress would seem to indicate a real chance for Mattingly. It is clearly a stacked ballot, and based purely on statistical merit, he may be the least deserving of the group. Where he stands above many of the names, however, is a lack of controversy surrounding PEDs, and his generally positive reputation in the baseball world.
Mattingly presents an interesting case for the Hall. I consider myself to be a generally “big hall” supporter, who is fine with honoring people who had great careers, but might not be Babe Ruth or Ted Williams. In all honesty, Mattingly even falls a tick below the people I often find myself supporting. With that being said, when considering some of the early and highly-questionable inductees to the Hall, and even more recent inductees like Harold Baines and his 38.8 career bWAR, Mattingly wouldn’t be a total outlier.
It would be hard to complain about a guy like Mattingly getting in, when considering some of those that already have a plaque in Cooperstown. So, with another shot at induction on the way, I think it’s fair to be hesitant on a player like Mattingly, if not opposed. If elected, however, he would be far from the most questionable player to reach the game’s highest honor.
