Ahead of the 2026 season, all Dallas Cowboys fans had Week 10 circled. The Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers rivalry dates back to the 70’s, but recently the Cowboys have come up short more often than not.
Heading into Week 10, the two teams are not playing on the same level. Sitting at 7-1 the 49ers are staring the NFC number one seed in the face, while the Cowboys are currently fighting for their lives to make the postseason.
With both teams banged up and final injury reports issued, we can finally
get an idea of what the key matchup for this contest will be, and the Cowboys best path to victory is pretty clear.
The 49ers defense is currently seventh in the NFL in EPA/play and 14th in success rate, but their number one rush defense in the NFL helps weight those rankings. If the Cowboys are able to pull of a massive upset, the Cowboys will need to win through the air, early and often.
Through nine weeks, the 49ers have the 12th-ranked defense in the league in terms of dropback EPA allowed and the 10th-ranked defense in the league in terms of success rate allowed. Despite ranking 20th in rushing success rate allowed, the 49ers rank first in rush EPA. With no clear path to running the football successfully, this game falls into the hands of CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Ryan Flournoy, and even KaVontae Turpin.
With Pickens cleared to go, the Cowboys will be at full strength on offense for the first time in a few weeks, minus Jake Ferguson. On the other side of the field, the 49ers secondary is quite banged up.
Starting cornerbacks Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green are questionable for the game, after both logging limited practices on Friday, after both being DNP’s on Wednesday and Thursday. Starting nickel Upton Stout is also questionable for the game after practicing in limited fashion all week.
The 49ers are pretty thin from a depth perspective in the secondary if even one of their starting corners are unable to go, but if they end up missing multiple players, the Cowboys wide receivers should be able to dominate this matchup.
Even if all three guys suit up, the Cowboys wide receivers can find plenty of wins against this unit. After sitting out last week, Pickens holds no injury destination heading into the game and seems to be near full strength for the first time in over a month.
With Pickens back in the lineup and Turpin expected to return, the Cowboys should have their full complement of weapons to attack a banged up secondary of the 49ers. If the Cowboys want to upset the NFC favorites in Week 10, they will need all four of their starting receivers to impact the game in a big way, making this the key matchup to watch on Sunday.
