Yesterday, I tackled the tabulation for Josh Allen to eventually become the NFL’s all-time leader in total touchdowns. Disclaimer: despite being the most prolific per-game touchdown scorer in NFL history, he has a long way to go.
On that article, I got this comment, which prompted research and some quick math that has led to this very article:
Let’s dive into the numbers. And thanks for the comment, BBFan4Ever!
With 79 career rushing touchdowns in the regular season — already the most in league history
by a quarterback — Allen enters the 2026 season 85 rushing scores behind Smith for the all-time lead.
Allen currently averages .617 rushing scores per game. He’s scored double-digit touchdowns on the ground in each of the past three seasons.
For the sake of this hypothetical, let’s say Allen plays in all 51 regular-season games over the next three years (17 x 3) and maintains that rushing-touchdown rate. Sure, the Bills probably wouldn’t mind if touchdowns were dispersed away from Allen a bit more in his 30s, yet I don’t expect Allen to suddenly just stop scrambling or Joe Brady to eliminate the “Allen QB power” from the playbook inside the 10 or 5 yard line.
If Allen stays at .617 rushing touchdowns per game over the next three seasons, that will amount to a little over 31 more rushing scores, bringing his career total to 110.
That would mean, entering the 2029 season, when Allen will be 33 years old, he will be 55 rushing scores away from owning the all-time rushing touchdown record.
From there, let’s break down the per-season rushing touchdowns Allen would need to become the record holder:
Through Age 38 season (six seasons after his Age 33 season): 9.16 rushing TDs
Age 39: 7.82 TDs
Age 40: 6.87 TDs
Similar to Allen chasing Tom Brady’s all-time total touchdowns record of 677, the Bills quarterback eventually owning th rushing-touchdown record will be more about longevity than anything else.
Smith played 15 seasons and also has the most career carries in NFL history with 4,409, which is 571 totes clear of legendary back Walter Payton in second place.
In his career, as a running back, Smith averaged .726 touchdowns per game, which is remarkably not too far ahead of Allen’s current pace of .617. Overall, Smith appeared in 226 regular season games in the NFL. Allen enters the 2026 season at 128.
If Allen ultimately holds this record, he will probably need to play until he’s 39 or 40 years old.
Do you think this is a record Allen will eventually hold?
