It was a full bullpen meltdown that prevented the Mariners from leaving Cleveland with a series win, and the missed opportunity to land a shutdown reliever at the trade deadline continues to loom pretty large. The M’s salvaged a win on Sunday and will make their way to the other minor league stadium being used by a major league team this season. With the schedule turning tough for the Astros, the Mariners need to take advantage of these series this week.
| Mariners | Rays |
|---|---|
| Game 1 | Monday, September 1 | 4:35 pm |
| RHP Luis Castillo | RHP Shane Baz |
| 51% | 49% |
| Game 2 | Tuesday, September 2 | 4:35 pm |
| RHP Bryan Woo | RHP Drew Rasmussen |
| 47% | 53% |
| Game 3 | Wednesday, September 3 | 4:35 pm |
| RHP George Kirby | RHP Adrian Houser |
| 55% | 45% |
| Overview | Rays | Mariners | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batting (wRC+) | 97 (10th in AL) | 109 (3rd in AL) | Mariners |
| Fielding (OAA) | -19 (13th) | -22 (14th) | Rays |
| Starting Pitching (FIP-) | 101 (7th) | 103 (9th) | Rays |
| Bullpen (FIP-) | 90 (3rd) | 101 (11th) | Rays |
The Rays led the AL Wild Card race for much
of the spring, but an absolutely horrendous month of July sunk their playoff hopes. They had a busy trade deadline, moving on from a number of players while bringing back a bunch of major league talent that should help the club in the near future. For now, they’re kind of stuck in the weird no man’s land of the American League: not good enough to compete for a playoff berth this year, but not truly rebuilding like the White Sox. They’ll be in the playoff mix next year, and hopefully back in Tropicana Field for the foreseeable future.
A note about Steinbrenner Field, the Single-A ballpark the Rays have been calling home this year: it’s been one of the most home run friendly fields in baseball this year. Its home run park factor is the fourth highest in the majors this year and the afternoon and evening winds have played havoc on batted balls this year.
| Player | Position | Bats | PA | K% | BB% | ISO | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Simpson | LF | L | 346 | 10.4% | 5.2% | 0.053 | 86 |
| Yandy Díaz | DH | R | 556 | 14.7% | 7.6% | 0.185 | 122 |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | L | 464 | 25.2% | 7.3% | 0.229 | 121 |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | R | 552 | 20.3% | 5.8% | 0.272 | 121 |
| Josh Lowe | RF | L | 350 | 22.6% | 8.0% | 0.158 | 92 |
| Jake Mangum | CF | S | 340 | 14.7% | 4.4% | 0.071 | 87 |
| Bob Seymour | 1B | L | 36 | 41.7% | 2.8% | 0.114 | 43 |
| Carson Williams | SS | R | 30 | 36.7% | 6.7% | 0.179 | 99 |
| Hunter Feduccia | C | L | 55 | 25.5% | 14.5% | 0.065 | 21 |
The star of this lineup is undoubtedly Junior Caminero. He got off to a bit of a slow start, but since mid-May, he’s posted a 146 wRC+ with 31 home runs. More importantly, he stopped grounding into so many double plays. A few months ago, he was on pace to set the single season record for GIDPs, but he’s hit into just six since the start of July. The rest of the Rays lineup is in full throw-prospects-at-the-wall-to-see-who-sticks mode. They called up their top prospect Carson Williams a week ago and long-time farm hand Bob Seymour got the call as well. Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe are both still around, giving some respectability to the top of the lineup, but this offense is a lot different than the team the Mariners swept back in early August.
Probable Pitchers
| Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Baz | 144 | 24.3% | 8.8% | 17.4% | 47.4% | 5.19 | 4.66 |
| Luis Castillo | 151.1 | 20.8% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 41.8% | 3.75 | 4.07 |
| Pitch | Frequency | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam | 44.6% | 96.9 | 100 | 112 | 122 | 0.344 |
| Cutter | 13.9% | 90.0 | 104 | 108 | 96 | 0.337 |
| Changeup | 10.8% | 89.4 | 82 | 92 | 150 | 0.273 |
| Curveball | 27.2% | 84.8 | 126 | 88 | 117 | 0.255 |
| Slider | 3.5% | 86.7 | 109 |
Shane Baz was one of the Rays top pitching prospects a few years ago, but he blew out his elbow just nine starts into his big league career and missed most of 2022, all of 2023, and most of 2024 thanks to that injury. That injury wiped out a few prime years of development and his ceiling has looked a lot lower than it did when he first debuted. His calling card is a nasty hard curveball that generates plenty of swings and misses. The rest of his arsenal hasn’t caught up with his breaking ball, leaving him vulnerable if batters can lay off the big hook. His recent injury history has also led to some workload concerns as this year is the first time he’s thrown more than 100 innings in a single season in his professional career. It really seems like he’s struggling through some late-season fatigue as he has an ERA of 8.47 in seven second half starts.
| Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | 129.2 | 22.6% | 5.6% | 11.0% | 48.6% | 2.64 | 3.42 |
| Bryan Woo | 164.2 | 25.6% | 4.8% | 12.2% | 40.1% | 2.95 | 3.56 |
| Pitch | Frequency | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam | 34.6% | 95.8 | 114 | 106 | 106 | 0.283 |
| Sinker | 23.5% | 95.4 | 118 | 98 | 128 | 0.317 |
| Cutter | 31.0% | 90.2 | 108 | 111 | 102 | 0.286 |
| Changeup | 1.3% | 89.4 | ||||
| Curveball | 4.5% | 80.5 | 91 | |||
| Sweeper | 5.0% | 84.6 | 118 |
From a previous series preview:
Drew Rasmussen has by far been the Rays’ best pitcher this year. His 2025 All-Star campaign has been characterized by the dominance of his slider which has been one of the best in baseball among starters. The 89 mph slider accentuated his four-seam fastball which, while averaging around 95 still catches hitters off-guard when they sit waiting for the slider. He also has a very effective sinker which he can go to in order to get a ground ball.
| Pitcher | IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Houser | 94.2 | 16.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 49.5% | 2.85 | 3.72 |
| George Kirby | 102.2 | 24.3% | 6.1% | 12.1% | 43.9% | 3.94 | 3.54 |
| Pitch | Frequency | Velocity | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam | 11.9% | 95.1 | 92 | 70 | 94 | 0.287 |
| Sinker | 46.4% | 94.3 | 101 | 73 | 107 | 0.342 |
| Changeup | 15.4% | 85.7 | 95 | 114 | 97 | 0.339 |
| Curveball | 13.9% | 81.6 | 69 | 92 | 105 | 0.300 |
| Slider | 12.3% | 87.2 | 91 | 61 | 113 | 0.307 |
From a previous series preview:
Deadline acquisition Adrian Houser has had a shockingly good 2025 campaign to this point. After spending 2024 getting hit all around the National League, he’s had an incredible resurgence as an American League pitcher. He spent the first half of the season with the White Sox where he was their best starter. He’s only made one start so far as a Ray, where he was blown up to the tune of 5 runs on 11 hits in 5.2 IP. He’s primarily a sinkerballer, and he’ll mix in the rare changeup, curveball, four-seamer, and slider with about equal frequency. His sinker is good at getting him a ground ball, hitters are still successful against it to the tune of 115 wRC+ against that pitch.
The Big Picture:
| Team | W-L | W% | Games Behind | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | 75-62 | 0.547 | — | W-W-W-L-L |
| Mariners | 73-64 | 0.533 | 2.0 | L-W-L-L-W |
| Rangers | 71-67 | 0.514 | 4.5 | W-W-W-W-W |
| Angels | 64-72 | 0.471 | 10.5 | L-L-L-W-W |
| Athletics | 63-75 | 0.457 | 12.5 | W-W-L-L-L |
| Team | W-L | W% | Games Behind | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 76-61 | 0.555 | +3.0 | W-W-W-W-L |
| Red Sox | 76-62 | 0.551 | +2.5 | W-W-L-L-W |
| Mariners | 73-64 | 0.533 | — | L-W-L-L-W |
| Rangers | 71-67 | 0.514 | 2.5 | W-W-W-W-W |
| Royals | 70-67 | 0.511 | 3.0 | W-W-L-W-L |
| Guardians | 68-67 | 0.504 | 4.0 | W-W-W-W-L |
The Astros dropped a pair of games to the Angels over the weekend allowing Seattle to keep pace in the AL West. Houston finishes its wrap-around four-games series against the Halos today and then will host the Yankees for a series beginning on Tuesday. A five-game winning streak has allowed the Rangers to sneak back into the playoff picture. Texas leapfrogged the Royals in the standings over the weekend and will travel to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks this week. Elsewhere in the Wild Card race, the Yankees took care of business against the White Sox last weekend, but the Red Sox lost their series to the Pirates. The Guardians will look to keep their slim playoff hopes alive in a three-game series in Boston this week. Meanwhile, the Royals lost their weekend series to the Tigers and will host the Angels this week.
