Nebraska returns to Lincoln on Black Friday looking to steady the ship, but oddsmakers aren’t buying in. After being ragdolled by a punishing Penn State team, the Huskers enter the short week as a 6.5-point
underdog to Iowa on their home field, according to FanDuel. It’s not a shocking line given Nebraska’s ongoing struggles stopping the run and the fact that freshman quarterback TJ Lateef is making just the third start of his career.
A One-Sided Rivalry
Recent history hasn’t been kind to Nebraska in this matchup. Iowa has dominated what has become a one-sided rivalry, winning nine of the last ten meetings. And while many of those games have been tight, low-scoring, one-possession slugfests, the Hawkeyes’ trademark composure in the fourth quarter has consistently been the separator.
Nebraska has made strides in close games under Matt Rhule, but if they want to flip this rivalry’s momentum, they’ll need to be locked in from the first snap to the last.
Defense Under Pressure
The primary concern for Nebraska is obvious: stopping the run. Iowa brings a physical, straight-ahead rushing attack that will test the Huskers’ defensive line for four quarters. Add in dual-threat quarterback Mark Gronowski, and the challenge becomes even steeper.
While Nebraska’s defensive metrics still look strong on paper, the eye test tells a different story. Long stretches where the defense can’t get off the field, missed run-fit assignments, and inconsistent tackling have shown up far too often. Those issues can’t continue against a team built to punish them.
A Chance at Win No. 8—and Momentum
Despite the setbacks, Nebraska still has plenty to play for. A win would secure an eighth victory and position the Huskers for a potential bowl trip to Tampa—both of which would inject real momentum into the program heading into portal season.
Nebraska has the tools to make Friday a contest. But to give Lateef and the offense a chance—and to let special teams tilt the field—the Huskers must keep Iowa’s ground game to a manageable level. Do that, and the door opens. Fail to do it, and Iowa’s script plays out the same way it has nine times in the last decade.
Black Friday has delivered chaos before. Nebraska will need a heavy dose of it to knock off the Hawkeyes this time.
