The Friar Faithful have spoken. In a recent Gaslamp Ball survey poll, more than 54% want the San Diego Padres to re-sign Michael King this offseason.
Usually, that wish would be unfulfilled because of the volatile market for free agent starting pitchers. Last Spring Training, many in the media projected him to be the top starter in this offseason’s class. But those expectations have changed.
Market reluctant to give King a big-money contract
King was expected to command a free agent contract worth upwards of $100 million, but his market value has decreased
significantly due to durability issues. King’s meteoric rise since moving from the bullpen to the rotation has sputtered because of time spent on the injured list.
Last season, he battled through a pinched nerve in his throwing shoulder and left knee inflammation that limited him to only 15 starts in 2025. King had a 5-3 record with an impressive 3.44 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 24.7% strikeout rate in 73.1 innings pitched. The right-hander also improved on his walk rate (8.4%) in his second year as a starting pitcher.
Despite the laundry list of injuries, there is a lot to like in terms of his success as a starter. King has been lauded for the use of his five-pitch arsenal (headlined by a sinker, four-seam fastball, changeup, sweeper, and slider) in shutting down opposing offenses.
Starting pitching a top priority for the Friars
Padres President of Baseball Operations and General Manager A.J. Preller has expressed no concerns about King’s health, but that does not guarantee the organization will offer him a long-term contract to remain in San Diego. However, there is nothing more for King to prove his value to the franchise.
If re-signed, he would anchor an otherwise paper-thin starting rotation. Dylan Cease is also a free agent and expected to sign elsewhere. Yu Darvish recently underwent UCL surgery that will keep him out of the 2026 season. The is no guarantee that Joe Musgrove will return to being an effective starter after missing the entire 2025 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. The only guarantee is Nick Pivetta will be one of the Friars’ starters next season.
The rotation is facing significant uncertainty, so the Padres are looking to add more starting pitching this offseason. King should remain atop their winter wishlist because he has been a rotation stalwart since his arrival in San Diego. Re-signing him prevents a complete overhaul of the starting rotation.
Free agency can be unpredictable
King is 30 years old, and the Padres may offer a shorter high-risk, high-reward contract that allows him to prove his durability on the mound. His recent injury issues make it unrealistic for him to receive a long-term deal. But the Friars cannot afford to get in a bidding war for his services with one of baseball’s big spenders.
The usual suspects, such as the New York Mets, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Chicago Cubs could target King. The Friars must monitor the market’s interest in him, but they cannot fall into the trap of bidding against themselves.
The current trend in free agency is teams becoming increasingly cautious about offering starters contracts that span nearly a decade. Instead, they’re willing to pay top dollar on short-term deals. It eliminates the threat of having a megadeal putting a stranglehold on the franchise financially for years to come.
The competition for King should be fierce.
