Sitting at 3-1 and 1-0 in the ACC, the Virginia Cavaliers face what will likely be its toughest test of the season on Friday, as the high-flying 3-0 Florida State Seminoles descend upon Charlottesville as the eighth-ranked team in the country.
UVA’s offense continued its offensive hot streak last week against Stanford. Fueled by Chandler Morris and Trell Harris stringing together their best performances as Cavaliers, the ‘Hoos racked up 384 passing yards with Morris connecting with Harris on UVA’s first
three scores.
FSU, meanwhile, has played a JV schedule since its convincing win over then-eight-ranked Alabama, beating East Texas A&M 77-3 in Week Two and Kent State 66-10 last Saturday. Just three games into this season, the ’Noles are already sniffing their combined point total from all 12 games a season ago (185), sitting 11 points shy with 174. Like Tony Elliott and the UVA staff, Mike Norvell went to work in the transfer portal this past offseason, now fielding a team — with an offense led by familiar foe Tommy Castellanos — that looks unrecognizable after an abysmal 2-10 campaign a year ago.
Kickoff from Scott Stadium is set for 7:00 PM and ESPN will have the broadcast. Here’s a look at what to know ahead of the matchup:
Three Players to Watch
QB Tommy Castellanos
Castellanos makes his return to Scott Stadium as part of a much-improved team after leaving Boston College in the offseason. He’s been consistent to start his senior season, accounting for 594 passing yards, 139 rushing yards, and six touchdowns. While the stats are somewhat skewed this early in the season when taking into account FSU’s opponents and the early subbing in the second halves of two of those games, Castellanos has been efficient all around, owning the third-best quarterback rating in the country at 91.6.
Not allowing him to affect the game as a runner will be critical. The Georgia-native used his scrambling ability to frustrate Alabama’s defense and extend drives, a facet of Friday’s game where the return of Kam Robinson should show up often. Whether defensive coordinator John Rudzinski chooses to spy on Castellanos or not, having an eraser like Robinson to make the important tackle when things break down will be much-needed.
S Earl Little Jr.
Little Jr. plays the ‘Rover’ position for the ‘Nole defense, a safety/linebacker hybrid, and he does so with bad intentions against the run. He was everywhere against Alabama, finishing with a team-high nine tackles (four solo) in the win. He’ll mainly line up in the back end of FSU’s 3-3-5 defense, but is more than willing to stick his nose into chaos in the run game as seen below.
He’ll make things tougher on the Cavalier backs as they try to challenge the second level, and he is a ball-hawking threat to Chandler Morris in the passing game. In Little Jr’s four targets so far, he’s yet to allow a completion and has one interception.
WR Micahi Danzy
Danzy, a redshirt freshman, has been lighting in a bottle for Gus Malzahn’s offense. Despite only touching the ball nine times in three games, the speedster has managed to find the endzone three times all on the ground, including a 32-yard end-around touchdown against the Crimson Tide. His receiving prowess has shown itself since that game, owning four catches for 126 yards in the past two contests combined.
Against the most athletic skill group UVA has faced so far in NC State, the ’Hoos struggled to contain runs to the outside and gave multiple easy chunk plays through the air. The run defense was better against Stanford with Kam Robinson back in the lineup, but the Cardinal still found a way to hit on explosive passes down the field. That can’t happen against the speed of Danzy and others for this game to stay close. Regardless of where offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn lines Danzy up and however Castellanos gets the ball into his hands, the ’Hoos best be ready to stop #19 at all times.
Two Keys to Win
The secondary must take a massive step forward
The ‘Hoos sit tied for 47th in the country in overall scoring defense, but are 73rd in passing yards allowed. What has hurt the back end so far are the downfield explosive plays to wide-open receivers. UVA has already allowed three receptions of 60 or more yards, much to do with head-scratching coverage mishaps between the corners and safeties. FSU’s triple threat of Danzy, Duce Robinson, and Squirrel White will be hard to stay in front of as is, but the ‘Hoos cannot add to that strain by allowing self-inflicted miscues to turn into gifted explosive plays.
Continue to keep Chandler Morris upright
The offensive line has dazzled throughout the first four games, allowing just one sack so far — a mark that’s tied for second-best in the country. Tony Elliott announced earlier in the week that starting center Brady Wilson remains day-to-day with a calf strain. The offensive line depth will be tested against an aggressive and multiple FSU pass rush, regardless, but if the ‘Hoos must replace an experienced piece like Wilson come gametime, it could spell some trouble.
It goes without saying, though, that Friday’s matchup will bring a different level of speed and physicality greater than the likes of NC State or Stanford. The FSU defensive front consists of a healthy combination of size and experience, with the average size of each player on the two-deep equating to 6-foot-4, 289 pounds, most of whom are upperclassmen. They used that size to bully Alabama at times, getting home for three sacks in the game, in addition to forcing Ty Simpson to flee the pocket throughout. On a night where rushing yards are likely to be as scarce as any game so far, allowing Morris ample time and space to dish the rock to the big three of Jahmal Edrine, Trell Harris, and Cam Ross becomes all the more important.
One Prediction
This really is a ‘prove it’ game for both teams. Both have successfully punched down on inferior competition to start the year, and both are looking to jumpstart their ACC campaigns. It’s two of the nation’s top-five offenses with glaring similarities, managed by two offensive coordinators who both seemingly strike gold with every other play call.
UVA needs to start fast, whether it be a first-drive touchdown or a timely stop, and harness the energy of what should be a crowd of around 50,000 inside Scott Stadium, assuming the weather stays moderately dry. This Cavalier offense will give the ‘Noles the most trouble they’ve faced so far, but I give the defensive edge to FSU in large part to UVA’s inconsistencies in the secondary, and that’s where I see this game swinging in favor of the road team.
It won’t be a 14-10 rock fight, but I still think the point total falls below the over/under of 58.5, given the atmosphere and time in between formidable opponents for both teams. UVA keeps it interesting and stays close the entire way, but the ‘Noles make a few more plays to leave with the win.
Prediction: FSU 27, UVA 24
