Welcome back to the third edition of the Mock Draft Dive, where we’re looking at who draft pundits predict the Celtics to take in the upcoming draft.
We are less than two weeks out from the draft, and with Giannis rumors swirling and the Finals close to their conclusion, everything feels up in the air. Do the Celtics even stand pat at No. 27? It’s a divisive question, and one we’ve pretty much experienced on an annual basis since Brad Stevens took over team-building decision-making.
But what’s a mock
draft dive without a pick to talk about? Let’s just all embrace the hypothetical for now. First we looked at the prospects of selecting Karim Lopez (which is seeming more unlikely with each passing week), then Arizona’s Koa Peat (that still feels possible). Now, we turn to the faux-front office decision of selecting Iowa State’s Joshua Jefferson based on a mock from Sam Vecenie of The Athletic.
Here’s what Sam had to say about the selection:
As far as non-lottery prospects go, Jefferson was pretty high up there for one of my favorite scouting reports to build. And dogonnit (I’m not allowed to swear on the blog, but imagine I’m swearing), the fit makes a good deal of sense.
A passing maestro with a well-rounded game, what Jefferson lacks in top-tier athletic traits he makes up for with a high IQ and an unselfish play style. At 22 years old and with 130 college games under his belt, Jefferson closed his second season at Iowa State averaging 16 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists on the way to All-American and All-Big 12 honors.
The Iowa State star’s passing is the obvious focal point of his game, translating into his post-ups, off-the-dribble kickouts and transition outlets. His touch is impeccable, and his vision among the very best in this class, if not the best in the class.
I wish I could properly explain just how instinctual his playmaking is. Arguably the most entertaining thing about watching Jefferson no-look a pass to a cutter is not actually the play itself, but what comes immediately after: the opponent’s sluggish reaction.
Watch a highlight reel and count how many times you see a group of defenders crowding the paint physically melt into their shoes as they stare at an uncontested layup that snuck right past them.
Imagine thinking you have all the bases covered. Everyone’s communicating, shifting to the ball, closing off passing lanes. Maybe you send help on the ball to ramp up pressure as the shot clock dwindles. Yeah, maybe they get a shot off, but it won’t be a good one, and then, in less than a second, the ball hits Jefferson’s hands and is instantly re-routed into unaccounted space.
How defeating.
As the central figure to head coach T.J. Otzelberger’s offense, Jefferson made the lives of his teammates so much easier. There are great post passers out there, there are forwards that can run a delay action and hit cutters from the top of the arc, and there are fast break kick-starters that can push the ball ahead. Jefferson did all of that, all the time, in every game I watched.
For the Celtics specifically, I’m imagining that passing impact coming as a short-roll threat, something the Celtics lost a bit of after their free agency overhaul last summer.
The Celtics aren’t just looking for a playmaking forward though. It’s Jefferson’s calling card, but what about the rest of his offense?
As a shooter, he’s clearly been putting in the work to grow that part of his game, and his confidence doesn’t appear to be a significant issue, but there are big questions about how much of a threat he is as an outside shooter.
Jefferson attempted 110 3-pointers this past season after just 147 attempts across his first three years in college, and he was just okay. He shot 34.5% from deep, largely coming out of pick-and-pops. Those are the threes you want to see Jefferson look comfortable shooting.
If he can pick-and-pop, and a defense has to respect it, that only makes things easier when he’s looking to keep the ball moving.
But the shot has to be respected. And at the moment, I can’t imagine a defense putting too much attention towards a hard closeout.
Beyond his outside shooting, Jefferson loves to get into a post-up, but the way he sets up shop actually makes it a more reasonable transition into the NBA game, even if it’s not something you’d see a ton of as his usage and volume gets significantly cut down.
He’s not a “take it on the block and clear out” kind of player. He’s capable of working his way into the paint with a live dribble, and he’s generally quick to make a decision of attacking through the defender with intent to score or pushing the ball back out to a shooter.
On defense, Jefferson is a good rebounder and a capable shot-blocker, but his lack of vertical pop certainly hurts his chances of being a high-level rim protector.
A lot of his best interior defense came in help situations, finishing the play by swooping in for a swat attempt. Tasked with defending a back-down big, he’s probably not going to deter too many rim attempts.
Iowa State often utilized him as a help defender, taking advantage of non-shooters left in the corner, but in pick-and-roll coverages, it was a lot of hedges and drops, both of which he was adept at without giving up advantages. While he doesn’t play too high above the ground, he does move his feet well when dropping back.
He anticipates passes well when roaming, and is a disciplined straight-up shot-contestor, so he should be at the very least a serviceable power forward option, but it does pose an interesting question of how he fits in Boston on that end.
In their current form, the Celtics preferred Neemias Queta to be the roamer protecting the rim, and in an ideal world, a switchable power forward would take the brunt of the interior ball-stopping to buy time for Queta to provide shot-blocking reinforcements.
Jefferson is sort of like if the versatility of Kyle Anderson was placed in a more traditional power forward form. He has one elite skill in his playmaking, a few quality skills in his post scoring and help defense, and some question marks in his outside shooting and athletic makeup.
One of the draft’s older prospects, he offers a high floor for early rotation opportunities, which works for the Celtics if they’re opting for an “improve on the fringes” offseason philosophy.
Consider me on-board with the pick if that’s the route they ultimately go.
Where do you stand on Jefferson as a possible Celtics selection?
