When the Washington Nationals traded for Nathaniel Lowe, they thought the team’s multi-year first base crisis had been solved. He had posted a wRC+ of at least 114 and an fWAR of at least 2 in each of the last four seasons. However, as we know, Lowe fell off a cliff in 2025 and that means the Nats are still looking for a long term first baseman.
Going into the season, I and many others were very confident that Nathaniel Lowe would be a stabilizing presence for the position. After all, he had been the definition of consistent. Sure, he did not have the power of most elite first baseman, but he got on base at a high clip and played good defense.
However, those strengths vanished in 2025. He still walked at a decent clip, but less than he had in the previous two seasons. His strikeout rate went from 22.1% to 26.5% with the Nats. Lowe had a really tough time getting to high fastballs. His issues catching up to heat also made him more vulnerable to off speed pitches outside the zone because he was pressing to catch up to the heater. This at bat is a good example of that.
Lowe was also a liability in the field. He came with a gold glove and a big reputation as a defender. However, his lack of movement skills were exposed in the field. Lowe’s OAA went from 7 to -5, a massive drop off. His fielding woes also cost the Red Sox in the playoffs.
So clearly, Lowe was not the answer, he is not even on the team anymore. However, Josh Bell performed well after he replaced Lowe at first base. For most of the season, Bell was the DH, but after Lowe’s August DFA, he played first base.
His defense at the cold corner was pretty rough. Bell does not seem comfortable throwing the ball and he is not as good at picking balls in the dirt as Lowe. However, I did feel like his range and effort were better.
With first base though, the bat is what matters, and Bell was hitting for most of the season. After a miserable April where he tried to sell out for power, Bell went back to his old approach. That worked like a charm. From May 1st onwards, Bell hit .265 with a .351 OBP and an .807 OPS. He also hit 18 homers and drove in 50 in that time.
Those are the kinds of numbers you want from a first baseman. Bell is also a good guy to have in a young clubhouse. If I were Paul Toboni, I would consider bringing him back either as a DH or 1B, if you strike out on a bigger name.
Bell actually had his best offensive season since 2022 and he did so while being one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball. Despite being 33 years old, Bell clearly still has some gas left in the tank. With his age and well known inconsistency, Bell is not the long term option at first base, but he can be a stop gap.
If the Nats want to go into the free agent market to get their answer at the cold corner, there are some options. The two big prizes are Pete Alonso and Josh Naylor. Alonso would be the dream, but I would be surprised if the Lerner’s spent that kind of money. Even if they did, I am not sure an analytically minded guy like Toboni would splash the cash on a first baseman over 30.
Naylor seems more realistic. He is only 28 years old and would be cheaper than Alonso. Naylor is coming off a big year where he hit close to .300 while hitting 20 homers and stealing 30 bases despite his 2nd percentile sprint speed. There will be a lot of suitors for Naylor, but the Nats should be in the market.
If they can’t get the big fish, guys like Bell, Rhys Hoskins, Paul Goldschmidt and Ty France are other options. Not the sexiest choices, but all are fine as stop gap options.
However, the thing about stop gaps is that they need to be holding the spot for somebody. Who are these guys holding the spot for though? On the farm, there are a couple interesting 1B options, but no stud prospect.
I like Yohandy Morales, but I do not love him. He struck out over 30% of the time in AAA, while hitting the ball on the ground over 50% of the time. I don’t love that combination. Morales has big power upside though.
The Nats drafted Ethan Petry in the second round of this past draft. He is a hulking slugger who I think has a chance to be the long term answer. However, he is a couple years away and far from a sure thing.
So what do the Nats do next year at first base? They tried Luis Garcia Jr. over there a couple times, but I am unconvinced by that experiment. For me, they should go after some sort of stop gap option or get a big fish if they can.
Try to land Naylor, but if that does not happen, Josh Bell or Rhys Hoskins would be at the top of my list. Not everything is going to be fixed in 2026. Despite the rebuild lasting for many years now, there is still a long way to go. That is why Mike Rizzo got fired.
Hopefully the Nats get more production out of the first base position next year. However, the future of the position is still hazy. Nathaniel Lowe was supposed to be the guy, but that did not work out. That failure has left the Nats searching for answers at a position they have been unable to solve for years.
