The idea is dangerous to entertain. Caleb Downs is among the best players in this year’s NFL draft class. Any thought that he could wind up with a star on his helmet feels foolish. We can’t let ourselves believe it. There is no way. Why subject ourselves to that hurt and pain?
A light flickers, though. Recently ESPN’s Peter Schrager mocked Downs to the Cowboys at 12 overall and the faint heartbeat it provides is one we want to believe is the sound of a drum in the distance. Maybe the cavalry is coming.
Peter Schrager explained his mock in depth
Recently we had the chance to talk to Schrager, just a day after his recent mock where he sent Caleb Downs to the Cowboys at 12 overall. It is particularly interesting that he of all people would mock Downs to Dallas as he has nailed the Cowboys’ first-round pick in each of the last two years.
Here is Schrager’s logic.
“So last year when I had Booker going in the first round I caused a lot of problems with Cowboys fans saying there is no way they’re certainly not taking offensive line and then they took offensive line because I knew that they loved him. Downs, I look at their new defensive coordinator, and I look at what his specialty is… it’s defensive backs. And I’m telling you I know Christian. He is a 34-year old who is all about creativity, high energy, and smarts. Caleb Downs… Matt Patricia told me… when he joins whatever team he joins he will immediately be the smartest player on that defense and the face of the franchise.”
“No one thought he could possibly slip out of the top 10. I look at this draft and I look at the positions and the values and what these teams need. Safety has almost been a luxury for a lot of these teams as they view the draft and I point to Kyle Hamilton. Supposed to be a top 10 pick, goes 14. Derwin James. Supposed to be a top 10 pick, goes 18. You look at any mock draft last year… Nick Emmanwori was going in the first round. He falls to the second round. So by the trends I don’t necessarily think a team is going to take a safety in the top 10 above an elite corner, above an elite pass rusher, above a wide receiver, if they have needs at those positions.”
“The Cowboys have defensive back needs. I think it is a perfect fit and I think the match between new defensive coordinator and the way that he speaks, and I’ve known him for years, the way that he preaches versatility and the ability to play mulitple spots along that defensive backfield if needed… that’s everything Caleb Downs has been who we have been watching since he was at Alabama and been hearing about for it feels like a decade.”
“So to me Caleb Downs is the perfect fit and I think he might be there at 12.”
It feels like our collective pushback against this idea is in the doubt that Downs would even make it to 12. I think I speak for most in saying that if he’s there he has to be the pick.
Schrager’s point about safety being a premium pick of sort is fair. The NFL has not exactly seen teams place a huge priority on them. If Downs were to slip past the top 10 then it would only take one more pick for the Cowboys to be in business.
Schrager joined us to talk about how he is utilizing NFL IQ, an interactive hub created by the NFL and AWS (Amazon Web Services) and powered by Amazon Quick, to help establish how he is approaching the draft. This technology allows him to apply data to context in the name of yielding the most accurate overall results. He noted that he was able to do this specifically in his mock a pick after Downs to Dallas with Makai Lemon going to the Los Angeles Rams what with how Lemon’s athletic profile was assessed. This is the same business intelligence environment the Next Gen Stats research team uses to track data, test metrics, and generate broadcast insights throughout the season. The NFL IQ AI Assistant is helping to streamline that entire process and is clearly a part of the future (and really the present).
Are you buying what Peter Schrager is selling? Do you really think this is possible?
Let us know in the comments below.
