It’s a big day for the Spurs as they kick off their first Western Conference Finals appearance since 2017, and it’s against none other than an old rival who has given the Spurs a few very tough tests in their short existence in the Oklahoma City Thunder. Going up against the defending champions without homecourt advantage and with an unproven roster is daunting, and it’s easy to start getting nervous when you start really crunching the numbers. However, I’m choosing to look at the this serious from
an optimistic view, and here is where I’m at:
1. The Spurs beat OKC in the regular season by daring average-ish shooters to shoot. This has already been pointed out, but here’s a short summary of the strategy: Wemby completely abandons Caruso, Dort, and others in the corner to guard the glass. I don’t think this is a sustainable strategy- I wouldn’t bet on Caruso to miss 10 wide open 3s this series, much less in an individual game. I thought the Wolves would be better equipped to exploit the Spurs use of Wemby zoning down low with Naz Reid, in particular, in the corner. But they never really leaned on that heavily enough. If we stick with that defensive strategy, OKC will find a way to exploit it. If we don’t have a clean counter, that could lead to OKC in 7, either through their main rotation players shooting better, or by dropping them from the rotation and playing guys like Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, as JG points out. But the latter has downstream effects that I’ll discuss later.
2. Both teams are noticeably improved since they played in the regular season. The Thunder added more depth and versatility, and shooting, by adding McCain and providing a bigger role to Ajay Mitchell.
Meanwhile, the Spurs added more shooting, depth, and versatility through exponential internal growth. Even if Castle is an average to slightly above average shooter, instead of the elite shooter he’s been in the playoffs, that is a drastic swing in the Spurs favor. Most of our losses came from both not shooting well, and not shooting enough from distance. Castle, Harper, and Bryant all demonstrating improvement and confidence is a big change in our favor (each improved over 10 percentage points from January-on).
I give the Spurs a significant edge here, because it means we don’t have to mess with our rotation or our rhythm to get it on the floor- there’s no change in confidence. If there is foul trouble or an injury, guys like Harrison Barnes and Luke Kornet know who they are and what they can do and they don’t get impacted by shifts like the Thunder benching someone would. If the shooting holds up or stays slightly above average, the Spurs are well equipped to thoroughly handle OKC- we’re looking at a Spurs in 5 or 6 type scenario like against the Wolves.
If both of the above are true, that OKC is capable of exploiting the Spurs primary defensive strategy and our counterpunch will be less effective; while simultaneously we’ve experienced massive sustained internal development, then I would predict fireworks and offensive explosions and Spurs in 7, because not enough has changed in the Thunder’s favor.
Some other keys
1. Stephon Castle’s turnovers and fouls. If he’s taking care of the ball and on the floor, the Spurs win. I would think of it this way: “if Castle has as many assists and made 3s as fouls and turnovers, Spurs win; if he fouls out or has more than 4-5 turnovers, we lose”.
2. Wemby discipline. While JG points out “the little things”, I would point more specifically to Wemby’s discipline. If he is overaggressive going for blocks, it’s going to open up a lot for OKC- high variance type plays that would favor the Thunder. If he doesn’t handle their physicality and cheap shots, it’s a big win for OKC. If he starts to force things and turns the ball over or takes bad shots, it’s a big win for OKC. He has to be mentally and physically prepared to be near perfect on both ends and stay available for 36 minutes per game.
3. Can Keldon, Kornet, and Harper get even close to winning non-Wemby minutes? The benches will be big deciding factors. The Spurs had a minus 31 net rating in 107 minutes versus OKC in minutes where Kornet was the only big on the floor. Now, some caveats: Kornet was starting for many of those minutes, and Wemby was coming off the bench recovering from injury. Wemby hopefully won’t find himself on a minutes restriction this series, so there should be fewer non-Wemby minutes to lose. But we need to lose them by significantly less than we did during the regular season to have confidence. If Kornet and the bench group can have a neutral net rating, I would have a lot of confidence the Spurs can win and win big.
Final prediction: Spurs in 6.
I think Steph will control his turnovers, and I think he will be diligent in showing his hands and trying to avoid fouls on SGA. There will be a game or two that get away in both aspects. Wemby will force some things on offense and chase some blocks to overcompensate, and we’ll blow a game or two not having enough to overcome it. But for the other four games, Steph continues his leap. We’re disciplined, execute, and get enough shooting from Steph, Harper, and others to keep the floor spaced out. Tony dominates Fisher, Wemby dominates Chet.
