The San Diego Padres starting rotation will receive a boost to start next week when right-handed starter Griffin Canning will make his long-awaited Padres debut.
With his rehab window coming to a close on Sunday, Canning will most likely make his last start with El Paso on that date and then join the team Monday. After pitching Sunday, his first start would not come before Friday.
Up until this weekend, Canning has been on a six-day schedule with the Chihuahuas. When he makes his start on Sunday it will
be his first time starting on four days rest.
Adjusting the rotation
The Padres will also have a log jam with their pitching staff when Canning joins the team. None of the current starters can be sent to the minor leagues and it is unlikely the team wants to risk trying to sneak any of them through waivers.
On first look it would seem that Matt Waldron would be the odd man, but the organization has invested a lot of time and work into developing Waldron into an effective starter. He has shown improvement with each of his starts this season. Letting a pitcher who can get through five innings with three or fewer runs walk away is unwise for any team. Pitching coach Ruben Niebla has shown a lot of faith in what Waldron can eventually become, it is unlikely that will change.
Is a six-man rotation possible?
Can the bullpen be reconfigured to allow an opener/long man other than Ron Marinaccio or Kyle Hart?
The possibilities could include sending a bullpen arm to the minors and keeping six starters, allowing for a six-man rotation in the short-term and an opener or piggy-back situation for a few weeks. These problems usually work themselves out in baseball. The solution should be interesting to follow.
Difficult stretch ahead
The Padres have a 10 games in 10 days stretch starting Friday through Sunday, May 10. They also have 19 games in 20 days over the next three weeks. A six-man rotation would not be out of the question for that marathon.
Canning coming off best season
Canning has not pitched in MLB since he ruptured his Achilles tendon on June 26, 2025, while pitching for the New York Mets. Before his injury he was having the best season of his career.
The 29-year-old had a 7-3 record and a 3.77 ERA with 70 strikeouts in 70.1 innings pitched before the injury. The Mission Viejo native signed a free agent contract with the Mets after playing the first years of his career with the Angels.
Drafted in 2017, the Angels brought him up in 2019 and he pitched five seasons with the team. He missed 2022 with a back injury.
After signing with the Mets, Canning showed his most ground-ball heavy season yet. Always having a tendency to keep the ball on the ground, Canning had a 51.6% ground ball rate that ranked in the 87th percentile among all pitchers. Up until 2025, he had a 36.1% to 42.4% rate through his previous seasons.
Canning features six pitches in his mix with a fastball that he threw 35% of the time in 2025 and has an average velocity of 94 mph. He threw his slider 31% of the time and it averages 87.7 mph. He also mixes in a changeup, knuckle curve, cutter and sweeper.
The pitch mix used while with El Paso will be different than what he will likely employ in less dry conditions. The Pacific Coast League is a notorious hitters’ league and few pitchers do really well there.
Before the injury, Canning also pitched to a 21% K-rate, a 25.5% whiff rate and a 45.7% hard-hit rate in 2025. Those were all better than the MLB average.
Build up complete
In his fifth start with El Paso on Tuesday, Canning threw five innings with four strikeouts and one earned run allowed. He was removed from his previous start in the second inning after a 35-pitch effort and 46 pitches overall. With this start he had 68 pitches through those five innings. The goal is likely to get his pitch count up a bit more before he joins the Friars.
Over those five starts, Canning has 15 innings pitched and a 3.60 ERA with two homers allowed 12 walks and 18 strikeouts.
