Our most recent iteration of our Reacts fan surveys ties a bow on the starting lineup question for next year’s Bucks. Earlier in the offseason, we learned that a slight majority of respondents prefer Kevin Porter Jr. as the starting point guard over Ryan Rollins and newcomer Cole Anthony. I think it’s safe to assume that Giannis and high-profile free agent signing Myles Turner will make up the starting frontcourt. So it’s no wonder that the discussion revolves around the two and three, after both
positions had revolving doors last year. But the same cast of characters is back, who do fans want to take the floor on Opening Night alongside the aforementioned trio?
For Game 5 of Milwaukee’s first-round series against Indiana last spring, Doc Rivers mercifully changed his starting quintet to feature Gary Trent Jr., AJ Green, KPJ, and Bobby Portis alongside Giannis. In Porter’s case, this was brought about by Damian Lillard’s torn Achilles. The other three? Because Brook Lopez, Kyle Kuzma, and Taurean Prince each had rough series in their own ways. Lopez is now out of the picture, but images of Prince struggling to defend young Pacers wings while going from one of the NBA’s best three-point shooters in the regular season to just 2/9 are still fresh in fans’ heads. And Kuzma, well… the images are either of him doing nothing in his 0/0/0/0/0 (plus two personals) Game 1 or blowing layups (5/15 inside the restricted area during the series).
Prince and Kuzma each started for the Bucks down the stretch, both out of position as they slid down one notch on the positional spectrum from their natural spots at small and power forward, respectively. Somehow, that big four-man grouping with Giannis and Lopez had a +5.9 net rating, so it made sense to give it a go in Game 1. It became clear very quickly that it wouldn’t work, so by Game 2, fans were clamoring for a change, which came too late. At the end of the regular season, while Dame sat out with a blood clot, the Bucks closed games with KPJ, Giannis, Portis, GTJ, and AJG to great success: a ridiculous +51.2 net—the Bucks’ best lineup with over 20 minutes played (they only had 42, though). While that group’s net rating wasn’t as good against Indy (still +6.3!), it’s pretty clear that something works here.
Naturally, fans prefer running this group back next year. 93% of our voters want Trent to start, which he didn’t do for almost the entire year last year—probably a mistake not moving him back into the starting five at some point after he returned from a few early-season games missed with back spasms. Green didn’t start much at all, but was effective enough on defense and has good size to play the two. Trent does as well, but starting either at the wing leaves a big gap between Giannis and either guy, even with their 6’7” (Green) and 6’9” (Trent) wingspans making up for their 6’4”–6’5” listed heights.
The other question is how this will work now that Turner is involved. We’ve seen the results with Portis, and that option remains, but (small sample size warning) Trent, Green, Porter, Lopez, and Giannis were +75.8 in 17 minutes. Even in 20 minutes with Prince replacing Green, they were +6.3. So whatever limited data we have to extrapolate from, a Turner/Giannis/Trent/Green/Porter lineup could be their best option, especially in winning time.
Whether or not we see that from jump street is a different question. Prince started 73 contests last year—second most on the team—but there’s not a whole lot of desire for him in our survey to reprise that role. Kuzma also isn’t a popular choice, even alongside Trent, though if I had to bet money, I’d put it on Doc starting Kuz at the three in October. I don’t like it any more than you do, but maybe he’ll surprise us.
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