Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 111 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Nov. 8, 2025) on ESPN+ from inside
APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Vegas 111 features a welterweight main event between 170-pound standouts Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown, a five-round showdown with possible title implications for early 2026 and beyond.
Before we dive into the main and co-main events, which include the flyweight collision between 125-pound bruisers Matt Schnell and Joseph Morales, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 111 six-fight main card by clicking here. Get all the latest “Bonfim vs. Brown” odds and updated betting props courtesy of our fiscal friends over at FanDuel right here.
170 lbs.: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown
Gabriel “Marretinha” Bonfim
Record: 18-1 | Age: 28 | Betting line: -185
Wins: 3 KO/TKO, 13 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’1” | Reach: 72” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.54 | Striking accuracy: 45%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.53 | Striking Defense: 63%
Takedown Average: 4.03 (55% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 76%
Current Ranking: No. 14 | Last fight: Split decision victory over Stephen Thompson
Randy “Rude Boy” Brown
Record: 20-6 | Age: 35 | Betting line: +155
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 6’3” | Reach: 78” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.47 | Striking accuracy: 47%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.26 | Striking Defense: 54%
Takedown Average: 0.79 (39% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 73%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Knockout victory over Nicolas Dalby
Expectations were high for Gabriel Bonfim when he graduated Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in late 2022, submitting Trey Waters by way of first-round shoulder choke. In the three years following that performance, “Marretinha” has largely delivered, winning five of six with three submissions and a pair of post-fight performance bonuses which includes his “Fight of the Night” in a losing effort against Nicolas Dalby at UFC Sao Paulo. Bonfim was able to crack the welterweight Top 15 with his split-decision victory over Stephen Thompson at UFC Nashville, a back-and-forth fight that felt like it should have been a five-round headliner at APEX. Regardless, the performance proved Bonfim was able to deal with an experienced striker though critics will claim the Brazilian underperformed against a shopworn, 42 year-old relic from UFC yesteryear. I think this weekend’s fight against an unranked (but very dangerous) Randy Brown will help determine Bonfim’s trajectory in 2026. Still just 28, “Marretinha” may just now be hitting his competitive prime.
“Stephen Thompson’s a well-rounded guy, and the most experienced guy in the division. So of course, after watching and analyzing my fight with him, I grew so much,” Bonfim told UFC.com. “I grew more from that fight than from my loss (to Nicolas Dalby). He was a guy that I could not blink. I had to stay focused and dialed-in the entire time, I had to defend everything. If I blinked, he would kick. So I defended his kicks and (had to) be aware, very wary. He’s got good takedown defense. So just (for my) overall mindset and (for) me to be dialed in for the fight, that was the biggest growth I had from fighting Stephen Thompson. I really believe I will knock [Brown] out. I’m going to press him with forward pressure and volume, and I think eventually I’m going to land my punch and knock him out.”
Randy Brown has quietly amassed a 14-6 record in 20 fights under the UFC banner and is just a few weeks in front of his 10-year anniversary with the promotion. When “Rude Boy” first made his Octagon debut back in Jan. 2016, Robbie Lawler, Luke Rockhold, and Fabricio Werdum were all UFC champions; so yeah, it’s been a minute. Brown has won four of his last five and has all the physical tools to be a major player in the 170-pound title chase, but something is missing from his overall game. He routinely comes up short against the biggest names in the division, like Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena, among others, which keeps the Jamaican slugger from gaining any traction in the official welterweight rankings. That said, Brown was able to knockout Nicolas Dalby at UFC Kansas City back in April — the same Dalby who stopped Bonfim at UFC Sao Paulo. “Rude Boy” remains the betting underdog in this contest and at age 35, you have to wonder how much Brown has left in the tank after 13 years of abuse. I don’t know if Brown has enough time left on the clock to make a run at the top of the division, but you can bet he’ll be looking to play spoiler this weekend in “Sin City.”
“I’m preparing for Gabriel Bonfim to be ‘the guy,’ what he was when he burst on the scene: five rounds of an onslaught; non-stop pressure, knockout power,” Brown told UFC.com. “He can throw, his grappling (is great), he’s strong as an ox. That’s who I prepared for, that’s who I’m ready to face, and he’s gonna see the version of me that is ready for that. I beat him everywhere; I’m better than him everywhere. Only thing is, he’s an offensive grappler; that’s his bread and butter. He strikes with some people — they all strike with some people — but we’ll see what it looks like on Saturday because I know that ain’t gonna be the case. If it is, that’s gonna be a mistake. They think I can’t grapple, and that’s fine. I’ll keep the fight where I wanna keep the fight, but if it goes anywhere, I’ll be just fine.”
This is a very winnable fight for Brown, who is taller and has a longer reach. It all depends on how well he defends the wrestling attack from Bonfim, who averages more than four takedowns per 15 minutes of action. “Rude Boy” was grounded four times by Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos at UFC 302 and “Capoeira” is smaller than Bonfim, so I suppose this contest will be decided by the Brazilian’s gas tank. If he fades late, Brown is going to level him for the upset. The more likely scenario is that “Marretinha” grinds his way to a close nod on the judges’ scorecards.
Prediction: Bonfim def. Brown by unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales
Matt “Danger” Schnell
Record: 17-9, 1 NC | Age: 35 | Betting line: +220
Wins: 2 KO/TKO, 9 SUB, 5 DEC, 1 DQ | Losses: 5 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’8” | Reach: 70” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.13 | Striking accuracy: 40%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.17 | Striking Defense: 55%
Takedown Average: 0.49 (40% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 43%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Jimmy Flick
Joseph “Bopo” Morales
Record: 13-2 | Age: 31 | Betting line: -270
Wins: 2 KO/TKO, 7 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’6” | Reach: 69” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.02 | Striking accuracy: 40%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.11 | Striking Defense: 57%
Takedown Average: 1.23 (42% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 28%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Submission win over Alibi Idiris
Matt Schnell first rose to prominence as one of the flyweight contestants on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 24 back in 2016, where he blasted his way into the quarterfinals by disposing of Matt Rizzo by way of second-round submission. Schnell would eventually go on to lose to finalist Tim Elliott, but the promotion was still building its flyweight division and “Danger” got called up to the big show. The fact that Schnell is still employed by UFC nearly a decade later is impressive on its own and when you rack up back-to-back “Fight of the Night” bonuses (UFC 274, UFC Elmont) there’s no reason to let you go. That said, it’s been a rough couple of years for Schnell, who dropped four of his last six and got brutally finished in all four losses. On the plus side, “Danger” is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Jimmy Flick at UFC Kansas City last April.
“I don’t have to make anything happen,” Schnell said at the UFC Vegas 111 media day. “I think the past, I’ve kind of gotten wrapped up in that, ‘I’m a scrapper, I’ve got to go out there and make something.’ I don’t have to make anything happen. My two feet on that mat, my two feet on that canvas, we scrapping. I just have to be in the moment, read, react, fight the way I’ve always fought, and not overreach. But I think it’s important to make it a fight and not make it pretty and let him get his good grappling stuff off and get into those technical grappling aspects. Be gritty. Be mean. Do my best and cause some damage along the way. We’ll see who wins. It’s a scrap, though, baby. I know it is. It’s going to be a good one.”
Joseph Morales has one of the great comeback stories in UFC. “Bopo” had his first run inside the Octagon back in summer 2017, earning a contract after racking up a perfect 8-0 record on the regional scene. Unfortunately, Morales posted a 1-2 record and got released in late 2018. Undaunted, the Californian once again ran roughshod over local talent to earn a spot on TUF 33, winning the combat sports reality show trophy by submitting Alibi Idiris last August as part of the UFC 319 fight card in Chicago. Whether or not he can avoid the same fate he encountered in his first UFC run remains to be seen, but Morales doesn’t look anything like the 2018 version that cost him a spot on the 125-pound roster. In addition, the timing couldn’t be better, as the top half of the flyweight division is running out of viable contenders for 2026 and beyond — thanks to the dominance of current champion Alexandre Pantoja.
“My last performance was … I don’t wanna say flawless, but it’s as good as you can get, and to be able to repeat that (on Saturday) is my plan,” Morales told UFC.com. “I just wanna showcase that I got better in that short amount of time, and that I’ve got some tricks up my sleeve. I was surprised and caught off guard that I’m in the co-main event. I’m honored to be back, but having the co-main event spot is huge for me to be able to showcase my talents and my skills. I’m looking forward to being able to put on a performance for the fans and the UFC. I have to earn it; this is not something that is deserved. You don’t just come in here and deserve anything. You get what you get, and you’ve got to come in here and fight your ass off to make it up the ranks.”
It’s a bit surprising to see Schnell as such a heavy underdog for this fight when you consider his size and level of experience. To be fair, “Danger” has looked pretty bad in recent years and has been finished in eight of his nine losses. At the same time, Morales has been red hot as of late and looks to be a serious threat to the flyweight division. Expect an action-packed banger that sees a shopworn Schnell get dropped to the canvas, where “Bopo” follows and locks up a fight-ending choke.
Prediction: Morales def. Schnell by submission
Remember to get the rest of the UFC Vegas 111 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.
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