Throughout the offseason — including around free agency, after the draft, and when this year’s NFL schedule was released — we’ve been following the Cleveland Browns’ odds to win the Super Bowl, to win the AFC North, and the over/under odds on certain wins/losses.
Overall, the odds had been fairly steady or leaning slightly toward a slightly optimistic lens on the Browns’ upcoming season after the hiring of Todd Monken as head coach, and a solid-looking draft class. Not addressing the quarterback position
still kept them with low Super Bowl odds and finishing fourth within the AFC North, though, and when the regular season schedule came out, the Browns were only favored in two games (against Las Vegas and Atlanta).
Then came the trading of Myles Garrett. Besides the quarterback position, it’s not often that losing one player can shake up a team’s odds, but a Defensive MVP can be deemed an exception to the rule. I waited a few days for the dust to settle, so let’s take a look at how the Browns’ odds have changed (or not changed), according to FanDuel. For reference, I am comparing today’s odds to odds from mid-May, when the schedule was being released:
- Super Bowl Odds: The Browns are still 250/1 odds to win the Super Bowl, so nothing changed here. Sometimes, when you’re near the bottom of the barrel in the biggest category of all, you see a little less movement (although the trade did propel the Rams up to Super Bowl favorites).
- AFC North Odds: This is where we see our first big change. In May, the Browns had 16/1 odds of winning the AFC North, but those odds are now down to 22/1.
- Over/Under Wins: We ran a piece around the schedule release time, focusing on whether the Browns could reach the over on 6.5 wins (+125). Even though you can bet on other over/under win totals on FanDuel, for the sake of comparison, we’re still focusing on 6.5 wins. The odds on hitting the over on that are now +170.
If you placed a bet after the draft on the Browns, obviously you’ve already lost some value. However, if you think that a Monken-led team can be the surprise of the league, and that newcomer Jared Verse can be a respectable replacement on a strong defensive team, then maybe now is the time to get more bang for your buck.
