The Dallas Mavericks, New Orleans Pelicans, and Memphis Grizzlies are well out of the play-in race and have their sights set on the loaded 2026 NBA Draft. As of this post, the three teams are separated by one game, with Memphis (23-44) having two fewer losses than Dallas (23-46) and New Orleans (23-46). As the season comes to a close, which teams are determined to scratch out a few wins, and which want to drop as far as possible? Here’s a look at where each team stands, how the draft affects them,
and what the plan should be for the remainder of the season.
The NBA season has less than a month remaining, finishing on April 12. And it can’t come soon enough for the Mavericks, Pelicans, and Grizzlies. By then, the team with the worst record will have the sixth-best odds in landing a top-four draft pick (34.8%), including an 8.3% chance of landing the number one overall pick. Seventh has odds of 34.4% for a top-four pick and 8.2% for the number one overall. Eighth drops to 26.3% for a top-four pick and 6.0% for number one.
The Mavericks (23-46)
Dallas is hoping to stay on the magic carpet ride from last year’s draft, which landed them Cooper Flagg, the consensus number one overall pick. The 2026 draft is the last time the Mavericks will own their own pick until 2031. After the failed Anthony Davis experiment that shipped him off to the Washington Wizards at the trade deadline, Dallas shifted priorities to the upcoming draft. Since the deadline, the Mavericks are 4-15 and have dealt with a plethora of injuries. Shortly following Davis’s departure, the Mavericks made the decision to shut Kyrie Irving down for the rest of the year, hoping he comes back fully healthy next season.
With so many things going wrong this season for Dallas, they are hoping the one thing they can do right is get lucky with the ping pong balls again. Cooper Flagg is putting together a phenomenal rookie campaign, and his play is more than enough justification to keep watching the Mavs, but they should be losing (and losing a lot). The best way to fast-track the rebuild is to land a star for the second draft in a row. The remaining schedule for Dallas.
vs: ATL, LAC, GS, MIN, ORL, LAL, CHI
at: DEN, POR, MIL, LAC, PHX, SA
Of those 13 games, 9 are against teams with a .500 record or above. If the goal is to finish 6th in the tank race, this schedule should help, as it’s the third-hardest remaining schedule in the NBA. The goal for the Mavericks should be simple. Let Cooper Flagg be Cooper Flagg and lose organically. The best path forward for the Mavericks is to find a co-star (a real point guard) for Flagg.
The Pelicans (23-46)
New Orleans is a different story. The Atlanta Hawks own the Pelicans’ pick in this draft, so Zion and company have no incentive to be bad (they just are). But the Pelicans have been playing better basketball as of late. Since its historically bad 8-31 start, New Orleans has righted the ship, going 15-15 in their past 30 games. It’s clear the team wants to win, and with a good young core, it makes sense. That young core includes Trey Murphy III, Jeremiah Fears, Yves Missi, Derik Queen, and Zion Williamson, all of whom are 25 or younger. The Pelicans also have additional vets who help the team squeeze out wins: Jordan Poole, Saddiq Bey, Dejounte Murray, and Herb Jones.
The Pelicans have had their own wave of injuries, most notably to Dejounte Murray, who returned in February after tearing his Achilles tendon in February 2025. Since his return, New Orleans has had some semblance of a decent basketball team, and with so much young talent, it’s no surprise the Pelicans are playing better than their record. Here is how the remaining schedule looks for New Orleans.
vs: LAC, LAC, CLE, HOU, ORL, UTA
at: NYK, DET, TOR, POR, SAC, BOS, MIN
Of the 13 remaining games for the Pelicans, 10 are against teams .500 or above, the fourth hardest remaining schedule in the NBA. If New Orleans wants to make sure Atlanta doesn’t land a top talent in this draft, it’ll need to keep winning. With a fresh start next year and up-and-coming talent, the Pelicans will be poised to get out of the NBA’s basement
The Grizzlies (23-44)
Memphis, like Dallas and New Orleans, hasn’t caught many good breaks. After their ascension to the second seed in the West in 2023, it’s been a major fall from grace for the Grizzlies. Much of their downward spiral has been due to the off-court issues of superstar Ja Morant, who has seen more time off the court than on. Memphis tried to change paths at this year’s trade deadline, holding several discussions with teams on Ja Morant, but couldn’t find a suitor. They did move former Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. to the Utah Jazz at the deadline, signaling the unofficial rebuild.
The Grizzlies have also had numerous injuries. Santi Aldama, Scotty Pippen Jr., Zach Edey, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have all suffered season-ending injuries. Morant has a nagging elbow injury that could also sideline him for the rest of the season. With not much to work with and the Grizzlies owning their own pick, it makes sense for them to optimize their draft position. Morant could have played his last minutes as a Grizzly. Jackson Jr. is gone. Desmond Bane was traded in the 2025 offseason. The core is broken, and it’s time to develop a new one.
Memphis has young talent, but lacks a true number one. But if your roster has pieces like Jaylen Wells, Zach Edey, Cedrick Coward, GG Jackson, and Taylor Hendricks, all of whom are 23 or younger, you’re off to a good start. Here’s a peek at Memphis’s remaining schedule.
vs: DEN, BOS, SA, HOU, CHI, PHX, NYK, TOR, CLE
at: CHA, ATL, MIL, DEN, UTA, HOU
Of the 15 remaining games for the Grizzlies, 12 are against teams .500 or above. This is the NBA’s toughest remaining schedule. With the rebuild all but fully underway, the Grizzlies have a chance to add a top-tier talent to a solid, young core. And being a small market, you typically have to draft your talent. Not many superstars have Memphis, Tennessee at the top of their destinations list.
A photo finish
Given the motivations of the teams, the Pelicans will likely end up with the 8th spot in the draft, winning the most out of these three teams down the stretch. The Mavericks and Grizzlies both have difficult schedules to end the season and are incentivized to tank to optimize draft position. Although the Grizzlies have the toughest remaining schedule, most of the games are at home, whereas the Mavs will be spending more of their time of the road.
It’s impossible to tell who ends up with the 6th and 7th spots in the draft, but as Dallas learned in 2025, even the smallest percentage of margin matters. But in either spot, both teams are looking to turn the page and rebuild to contention with an absolutely stacked 2026 draft.
