Indiana football is set to take on Miami in the College Football Playoff National Championship game on Monday night at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. As of Sunday afternoon, the Hoosiers are an 8.5-point favorite over the Hurricanes with an over/under of 47.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
Indiana, the No. 1-seed, got here by beating No. 9-seed Alabama in the Rose Bowl and No. 5-seed Oregon in the Peach Bowl, winning both games in blowout fashion. Miami, the No. 10-seed, got here by beating 7-seed
Texas A&M on the road, No. 2-seed Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl and No. 6-seed Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl.
Here’s three keys that will prove decisive in the national championship:
The trenches
No matchup will be as important as Indiana’s offensive line taking on Miami’s defensive line.
The Hurricanes’ defensive front performing well is crucial to creating favorable conditions for a Miami win. It’s one of the best position groups in the country with a pair of star edge rushers and strong play from the defensive tackles. They’ve created havoc against opposing offenses all season.
Miami can keep Fernando Mendoza from getting into rhythm passing the ball by getting consistent pressure, helping keep him from finding receivers downfield. It’s what the Hurricanes have done well all season, the team is built around it.
Indiana’s offensive line has seen its share of talented pass rushers against Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon. The Hoosiers aren’t lacking for experience, but Miami’s line presents challenges they haven’t seen before. They don’t have to outright win the matchup, just provide enough time at key moments for Mendoza to operate.
Quarterback Fernando Mendoza
In turn, Mendoza has to be able to do his job.
Mendoza can help out his offensive line by not holding onto the ball too long if he can’t find a receiving option. The run has been there for him, he’s picked up yards with his legs in those situations in the postseason, moreso than the regular season. He also has to have a heightened sense of pocket awareness, getting the ball out safely if he feels a free rusher coming his way. If Miami blitzes, he’s gotta be able to adjust and throw into the open space it creates.
Indiana has been excellent offensively throughout its playoff run, with the run game creating opportunities in the pass game. Mendoza has to find success whether or not that remains true, keeping the ball safe before and after it leaves his hands.
Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines
Haines has been one of the best defensive coordinators in the sport these past two seasons.
It’ll be his job to stop Miami’s offense from creating a favorable situation for them to win the game. The Hurricanes’ offense does so through long, sustained drives powered by the run game and short passes to speed on the outside, letting them pick up additional yards after the catch.
Carson Beck has been excellent quarterbacking this offense through the playoff because he’s done his job, moving the sticks with his arm or picking up the necessary yards with his legs if the situation calls for it. He’ll take a deep shot if it’s available, but that’s not the look he’s hunting for. The run, powered by a strong offensive line, has been just as effective in helping Miami’s offense stay on the field while the defense rests and looks to play disruptor on its next series.
Haines’ defense has been tremendous in holding opposing offenses to low scoring totals all season, it’ll have to do so while forcing Miami off the field.
