I don’t think I quite realized how defined the top 3 in the Cardinals system would be. It makes sense, after the votes had been tallied, and I definitely knew that JJ Wetherholt was the favorite for #1
and Liam Doyle the favorite for #2. I didn’t even think about who #3 would be, but I suppose I wouldn’t be surprised by Raniel Rodriguez falling third either. But cumulatively, it is strange and certainly a first since I’ve started this that the first three votes were all about as close to unanimous selections as you can get.
I imagine that stops here. I don’t even know if I’d feel comfortable even saying anyone is a favorite. I don’t think I have a guess quite frankly. Fangraphs listed eight players in its most recent iteration of their top 100 and another player not on that list landed on Baseball America’s top 100. Which is to say that there are, in theory, five legitimate candidates to be selected as the 4th best prospect. Let the games begin.
Comparable Player Corner
Yes, I am bringing this feature back. Instead of trying to read minds or predict the future, I just allow you guys to tell me where your preferences lie. In the near future, I will have to consider adding a prospect from the 2025 draft and when I thought about it, I realized I wasn’t really sure who to add first.
Tanner Franklin, 22 – RHP (72nd overall)
Scouting: 65/65 Fastball, 40/50 Cutter, 30/40 Command
Quick and dirty report – I’m not going to bother with his stats, he threw 6 total pro innings. Reliever out of college, the Cardinals are trying to convert him to starting based on his fantastic fastball. Obviously, he’s a project and it’s not super likely he’ll start, but his fastball also gives him a strong chance to be a good reliever.
Ryan Mitchell, 19 – OF (55th overall)
Scouting (Pipeline): /60 Hit, /50 Power, /55 Run, /50 Arm, /50 Fielding
Pipeline does not list current scouting, just potential which is probably for the best for a guy who has not yet made his pro debut. Mitchell was listed as a shortstop when drafted, but he was announced as a centerfielder. His potential at least suggests an all-around good player.
Yeah this really comes down to which kind of prospect do you prefer. Do you prefer the likely reliever who has a chance to be a dominant starter or do you prefer the high school prep athlete (and based on the interview I watched after he was drafted, a very smart one) who is all potential right now?
strawpoll.com/Qrgew4W8jyp
New Adds
I have a very similar structure for who I will decide to add for the next three weeks. For the next three weeks, I’m adding two players. At that point, we reach 10 people on the ballot and I think that’s enough honestly. But I’ll take advantage of adding two players. There are, to way oversimplify my process, two kinds of players I add: there’s a player who was on last year’s list, where I have a very clear frame of reference on when they might be selected; and then there’s the player who is essentially a complete unknown, where trying to guess where they’ll land will prove difficult.
So because those are the basic archetypes, for the next three weeks, I’ll be adding one of each player. For this week, a top 10 player last year who you know is kind of weird himself honestly. He improved his stock and then needed Tommy John. Where he’ll be placed is anyone’s guess despite him being the more known pick. I’m talking about Tekoah Roby, selected 10th last year. The complete unknown player was quite literally unknown at this time last year: Deniel Ortiz. Anyone with his stats needs to be put on the voting sooner rather than later.
Joshua Baez, OF – 23
Stats (High A): 168 PAs, .317/.404/.483, 10.7 BB%, 21.4 K%, .166 ISO, .400 BABIP, 152 wRC+, 108 DRC+
AA: 331 PAs, .271/.374/.509, 12.4 BB%, 20.2 K%, .238 ISO, .294 BABIP, 141 wRC+, 125 DRC+
Scouting: 30/35 Hit, 45/60 Game Power, 60/70 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 40/50 Fielding
Baez is one of the more unique prospects I can ever remember following. Not in terms of his ability necessarily, or the stats he puts up, or his scouting report. No, I can’t remember a player who so changed his fortune so suddenly to where the before and after look like different players. Across two levels in 2024, he struck out in 35.5% of his plate appearances. Last year, it was 20.6% across the two levels.
And that wasn’t the only thing that changed. Strikeouts was really the only negative of his game, but boy was it a negative, but his walks kind of improved (though not drastically) and his power definitely improved. Granted, it must be said, it is easier to have power in Springfield than either Peoria or Palm Beach, so you know that’s part of it. Nonetheless, he’s a brand new prospect, we hope, and he did it fairly late in his pro career (fifth season!)
Leonardo Bernal, C – 22
Stats (AA): 107 G, 455 PAs, .247/.332/.394, 10.8 BB%, 16.9 K%, .146 ISO, .274 BABIP, 103 wRC+, 113 DRC+
Scouting (FG): 35/50 Hit, 35/45 Game Power, 50/50 Raw Power, 40/30 Speed, 40/55 Fielding
While we’re talking about progression as a prospect, Bernal made an interesting one from High A to AA. In High A, he had mediocre K/BB numbers and good pop lead to a 119 wRC+. In AA this past season, he had fantastic K/BB numbers but not a lot of power leading to a 103 wRC+. While it seems like he was a worse hitter, his BABIP fell from .333 to .274. That pretty much entirely explains the difference.
Which if you believe in the Baseball Prospectus stat deserved runs created+, which I am going to be incorporating into the stats now, was unlucky. Bernal’s one question is even simpler than Baez’s: do you believe in the low BABIP? A .300 BABIP and he probably has a similar hitting line to his 119 wRC+ last season.
Brandon Clarke, 23 – LHP
Stats (Low A): 3 GS, 9.2 IP, 47.2 K%, 5.6 BB%, 68.8 GB%, .125 BABIP, 0.93 ERA/0.98 FIP/1.32 xFIP/3.66 DRA
High A: 11 GS, 28.1 IP, 31.2 K%, 18.1 BB%, 62.5 GB%, .254 BABIP, 5.08 ERA/4.17 FIP/4.74 xFIP/4.75 DRA
Scouting: 60/60 Fastball, 70/80 Slider, 40/50 Change, 30/40 Command
I have also chosen to incorporate deserved run average, or DRA into the stats. I am surprised Clarke’s DRA was that high in his 3 games at Low A. I’m actually not sure how it could be that high given his 47% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and super high groundball rate. So I might take that particular number with a grain of salt. His DRA in High A, however, looks very similar to his other stats at that level.
If Clarke’s pitches are scouted remotely correctly, that would suggest Clarke could be a reliever at the MLB right now. Of course, his command might prevent him from being good right now, as you can see by the 18% BB rate.
Jimmy Crooks, C – 24
Stats (AAA): 98 G, 430 PAs, .274/.337/.441, 8.4 BB%, 26.5 K%, .167 ISO, .352 BABIP, 105 wRC+, 106 DRC+
MLB: 15 G, 46 PAs, .133/.152/.244, 0 BB%, 37 K%, .111 ISO, .185 BABIP, 5 wRC+, 67 DRC+
Scouting: 35/40 Hit, 40/45 Game Power, 50/50 Raw Power, 20/20 Speed, 60/70 Fielding
I think it might be lost in the shuffle that Crooks is rather young, despite kind of not seeming like it. Last year was his age 23 season. Most years, we’d be pretty excited about a 23-year-old catching prospect known for his defense who had an above average hitting line at AAA and made his MLB debut. Getting more specific tends to lower the optimism from that baseline.
But he’s kind of in the perfect farm system to get overlooked with two other big time catching prospects, both quite a bit younger than him. In front of him is a very offensive-oriented catcher who is trying to prove he can throw out runners and a very defensive-oriented catcher who honestly probably looks a lot like the version of Crooks who works out. He’s right in that middle ground.
Tink Hence, 23 – RHP
Stats (Three levels): 8 G, 21.1 IP, 27.9 K%, 15.1 BB%, 45.8 GB%, .255 BABIP, 2.95 ERA/3.80 FIP/4.18 xFIP, 4.56 DRA
Scouting: 45/45 Fast, 50/55 Slider, 60/70 Change, 45/55 Command
Hence is in a weird spot. He’s within the mix of pitchers currently recovering from Tommy John surgery, except Hence did not have Tommy John. He is in theory healthy at the moment. Unless I missed a report that is. And yet, he doesn’t exactly feel like a healthy pitcher. I think his 2026 will be a big year for him. I think it’s important that he shows some sort of health. He needs to actually throw innings at a certain point. I might even say he’s likely to get moved to the bullpen if his 2026 isn’t particularly healthy either, despite being only 23 right now.
But also, go look at his numbers from the 2024 season. He was very good in AA. He’s ready for AAA, whenever he’s healthy enough to pitch there.
Quinn Mathews, 25 – LHP
Stats (AAA): 24 GS, 99 IP, 26.1 K%, 16.8 BB%, 41.8 GB%, .302 BABIP, 3.73 ERA/4.30 FIP/4.78 xFIP/4.53 DRA
Scouting: 50/55 Fastball, 50/55 Slider, 45/45 Curve, 60/60 Change, 45/60 Command
It might be beneficial in the long run that Mathews had the 2025 that he did, even though most – myself included – largely expected him to not only debut last season, but to make as many as 20 starts. That didn’t happen. Part of it was his fault, part of it was that nobody really got injured, and part of it was that he didn’t need to be added to the 40 man. As a consequence, we are a year later and he’s kind of in the same situation as he was a year ago – we think he’ll make a good many starts, but he’s behind some guys more likely to make the roster. In this year’s case, the guys ahead of him can be sent down, for the most part, so it’s more possible.
And when I say it might be more beneficial, he had some growing pains maybe better experienced in the minors, but also his service time clock has yet to start. Unless he makes the majors earlier than expected, the Cardinals are looking at 7 years of team control. Well, depending on the CBA of course.
Deniel Ortiz, 21 – 1B/3B
Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285/.406/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+
High A: 130 PAs, .336/.438/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+
Drafted in the 16th round of the 2024 draft, Ortiz did not play the rest of that year. So at this time last year, none of us knew who Ortiz was. There was no reason to pay attention to him. Now there is. Fangraphs does not have a scouting report on Ortiz, so I don’t actually have any scouting information to give you. But really, if he’s voted onto this list, it wouldn’t be for the scouting anyway.
The crazy thing about Ortiz is that he had that season at 20-years-old. It’s unusual for a late rounder to have the kind of season Ortiz had, but when it happens, it tends to be an older prospect, like Matt Carpenter in the 13th round. So the usual downside of hoping it’s not just an old guy beating on guys a few years younger is not present here. Ortiz is the young guy.
Tekoah Roby, 24 – RHP
Stats (AA): 10 GS, 47 IP, 31.1 K%, 6 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .273 BABIP, 2.49 ERA/2.90 FIP/2.73 xFIP/4.56 DRA
AAA: 6 GS, 31.1 IP, 22.6 K%, 6 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .319 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/4.01 FIP/4.04 xFIP/4.50 DRA
I chose Roby ahead of other players basically because he had a good 2025. Most of the other choices didn’t really have a great 2025, or at the very least, it certainly didn’t raise their stock. Now, whether the Tommy John surgery immediately puts him back to where he started at the beginning of 2025 is another matter. But when he pitched, he was great.
And here is the poll to vote on the 4th best prospect in the Cardinals’ system.
strawpoll.com/w4nWWO3zdnA
