The Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-3) return home with their tail between their legs but an opportunity to right the ship against the reeling Michigan State Spartans (3-5) at 2:30 p.m. CST on Saturday, Nov.
1.
Can Michigan State score on offense?
Second-year starting quarterback Aidan Chiles has not taken the step forward this year that many Spartan fans may have hoped for in the preseason. He has had an especially tough time in conference play. Through five Big Ten games, Chiles is completing 57.3 percent of his passes and averaging 147.2 passing yards per game. Since throwing for three touchdowns against USC, he has only had one passing touchdown in his last four games. Inaccurate passes and questionable decision-making have plagued Chiles during this stretch.
He will use his legs to extend plays and pick up yards, as he has 81 rushing attempts for 227 yards and six touchdowns on the ground, but ball security has also been an issue for Chiles.
The fact that Chiles has been sacked 21 times this season leads us to the glaring issue on Michigan State’s offense: The offensive line. Not only have they struggled in pass protection, but they’ve failed to create consistent running room for leading rusher Makhi Frazier. Frazier is coming off his best game of the season after rushing for 109 yards and averaging 7.8 yards per carry against Michigan, but the rest of the season has been a bit of a slog.
Outside of Frazier, the other two offensive skill players you need to know are wide receivers Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly. Building off a solid freshman season, the 6’3” Marsh gives Chiles a big target in the passing game, and he leads the team with 42 receptions for 479 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Kelly, who is more fast and elusive in his route running, is not far behind with 30 receptions for 435 receiving yards.
Please tell me the Gophers will be able to score
Former Minnesota defensive coordinator Joe Rossi is having a rough season.
The Spartans rank 76th nationally in run defense (149.4 rushing yards allowed per game), 87th in pass defense (230.8 passing yards allowed per game), and 117th in scoring defense (32.5 points allowed per game).
Since the start of conference play, Michigan State has struggled to pressure the quarterback. They are averaging 1.6 sacks per game against Big Ten competition, but if you remove the five sacks they recorded against Nebraska, that number drops to 0.4 sacks per game. The Spartans have also struggled to be disruptive at the line of scrimmage, only averaging three tackles for loss through their five-game losing streak.
Rossi’s preferred style of defense has never been aggressive. He does not blitz a lot and prefers to play coverage, keeping everything in front of his defenders to limit explosive plays and force offenses to sustain long drives. It doesn’t seem to be working in East Lansing, even with a defense loaded with upperclassmen starters.
The secondary has been plagued by coverage breakdowns and miscommunications, leading to too many open receivers and easy completions for opponents. The lack of a pass rush has not helped. Michigan State is also bending far too often, ranking 117th nationally in third down defense. And they are breaking once opposing offenses reach the red zone, surrendering scores on 31 of 35 opponent trips.
But who will score more points on Saturday?
Minnesota has taken care of business at home this season, and I think they’ll come out ready to play after laying an egg in Iowa City a week ago. Minnesota 27, Michigan State 17.
