Let’s start this off with some good news: If the Braves play straight-up mediocre .500 baseball from this point forward, they should still have enough wins to get them back into the Postseason. The fantastic level of form that they reached during late-March and throughout April and most of May has essentially ensured that the Braves have a nice little “nest-egg” of sorts to play with as far as their Postseason chances go.
PECOTA still has the Braves at a 74 percent chance of winning the NL East and
a 98 percent chance of making the Postseason in some form. FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds also paints a rosy picture by giving them an 80 percent chance of winning the division and a 97 percent chance of making the Postseason. In the grand scheme of things, it’s fine. It may be “Blackheart” Lio Rush’s version of “fine” but it’s fine nonetheless.
With that being said, it’s hard not to feel a bit alarmed by what we’ve seen from the Braves since mid-May. There were concerns about the starting rotation heading into this season and while the rotation did a fantastic job early on in order to dispel most of those concerns, they’ve finally started to rear their ugly head and it’s been pretty concerning! Since May 18, Atlanta’s rotation has collectively produced an ERA of 5.20 (ERA- 125) and a FIP of 4.64 (113 FIP-). Both of those numbers are near the bottom of Major League Baseball and a lot of that has to do with the fact that outside of former White Sox hurlers Chris Sale and Martín Pérez, the rest of the rotation has been struggling mightily.
Grant Holmes looked better last night but he still has trouble getting through two turns on the lineup on any given night, much less getting any deeper than that. Spencer Strider was pretty inconsistent while he was healthy and now he’s out for the foreseeable future and it doesn’t help that JR Ritchie has essentially been baptized by fire as Strider’s replacement. Bryce Elder’s magical ride has come to a screeching halt and his most recent start where he got blown up for eight runs in a single inning of six innings of work represented the clear nadir for both Elder and this rotation at the moment.
Sale (60 ERA-, 42 FIP-) and Pérez (81 ERA-, 80 FIP-) are the only regulars who have an ERA- and FIP- below the league average of 100 since May 18 — everybody else is far over. Grant Holmes is the “best” of the bunch with an ERA- of 116 and a FIP- of 158. As bad as Elder has been (169 ERA-, 121 FIP-), Strider was actually a little worse with an equivalent ERA- of 169 and a worse FIP- of 157. JR Ritchie has tried his best but so far that’s resulted in an ERA- of 240 and a FIP- of 187.
The bullpen has essentially been carrying the pitching staff since mid-May, as they are currently leading baseball in ERA- since May 18 (65) and are top-five in FIP- at 85. No matter who they’ve called upon in the bullpen (whether it’s been high-leverage guys like Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez or Dylan Lee or the rest of the relievers like Dylan Dodd, Reynaldo López, Tyler Kinley, Didier Fuentes and even Carlos Carrasco being called upon to eat innings), everybody’s known their role and gotten the job done while the rotation has largely struggled. Their performance has been one of the only things keeping this current downturn in form from being an actual mid-season collapse.
As a matter of fact, the bullpen may be the one thing holding this entire team together at the moment because the offense has absolutely cratered for about a month or so. From Opening Day until May 17, the Braves as a team hit .265/.328/.444 with a wOBA of .337 and a wRC+ of 113 with the team wRC+ being second in all of baseball only behind the Dodgers. Ever since May 18, however, things have changed drastically. Atlanta has been hitting .232/.296/.377 at the plate with a wOBA of .306 and a team wRC+ of 87. Ever since mid-May, Atlanta has essentially been rolling out the third-worst offense in all of baseball with only the Padres and the Guardians being worse.
Now, a lot of that probably has to do with the fact that Drake Baldwin was missing for quite some time during that span and also Ronald Acuña Jr. has also been sitting on the sidelines for long stretches as well. It also didn’t help that during that period when both Baldwin and Sean Murphy were gone, Atlanta actively decided to play throwback National League baseball where they were effectively using the catcher as the pitchers’ spot in the lineup. Bless Sandy León and Austin Wynns for trying but León putting up a wRC+ of -84 in 37 plate appearances is truly astonishing and it was also painful to see Wynns add to that with a -73 wRC+ over 14 additional plate appearances. It’s clear with the addition of Joey Bart that the Braves have done a complete 180 in what they value in backup catchers since clearly León’s defense and experience behind the plate was not enough to overcome the overall black hole of plate production that he was delivering during his time out there.
Also, Ha-Seong Kim’s plate performance has been shocking and not in a good way. Any time where the Braves put out León and Kim at the same time, there were going to be two hitters in the lineup where it would’ve been a shock to see them get a hit. It’s something you just can’t have and it’s why the light-hitting Jorge Mateo has been getting plenty of opportunities and why Atlanta has also been desperate to keep Mauricio Dubón in the lineup no matter where he plays. Things got to the point where Matt Olson played right field at the tail end of a game last week because of the domino effect of substitutions that resulted in Walt Weiss making sure that Kim didn’t have to take an at-bat while the field shuffling was going on. He’s got to get it going soon but it’s also one of those cases where it’s tough to keep giving him plate appearances while he’s this terrible at the plate.
Atlanta has been getting positive contributions from Michael Harris II, Ronald Acuña Jr. (when healthy), Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies and Mauricio Dubón but it’s clear that they can’t carry the team when there are multiple hitters carrying a negative wRC+. Austin Riley’s inability to get going has also been frustrating to observe as well. Guys like Mike Yastrzemski, Eli White, the aforementioned Mateo and Dominic Smith are trying their best but it’s also clear that they are in a position where they need to perform out of their shoes in order to keep the offense afloat on a nightly basis in recent times.
I’ve regularly had Alex Anthopoulos’s preseason opinion on this team running through my mind for most of this season. He was right when he said that if this team was going to bounce back, the offense would need to return to good form after spending the better part of two years wandering in the wilderness. We saw that play out with the scalding-hot start that this team got off to to begin the season. Now we’re seeing the offense’s fortunes coincide with the team’s fortunes and it’s frustrating to see.
With all of that being said, I do have real hope that Atlanta’s offense will get things together. While watching them struggle lately has been truly frustrating, it’s not a hopeless situation. On the other hand, the starting rotation needs help and they need it badly. Folks have been screaming about the need to add to this rotation since this past offseason and now it has become glaringly clear what needs to be addressed at the deadline. I’ve already stated my opinion on whether or not the Brave should go after Tarik Skubal if the opportunity presents itself but even if they don’t swing for the fences in that regard, it’s clear that Atlanta should be trying to figure out a way to improve this rotation between now and the deadline.
Whether that’s simply bringing up Hurston Waldrep or going after some arms from teams that are planning on selling at the deadline (and there will be a handful), if the Braves are going to be serious about confirming their Postseason spot and also hopefully doing some damage when they get there, the rotation has to be improved. The bullpen is carrying the load for the pitching staff and the lineup has shown that they can make it happen at the plate for a decently-long stretch. On paper, the rotation has been the weak spot for the longest time and now they’ve mostly come crashing back down to earth after spending the early portion of this season in glorious orbit.
It’s clear that the Braves aren’t going to simply walk away with the division now that the Phillies are showing some real signs of being serious in recent weeks. The Braves still have a fairly nice lead in the division and as long as they don’t truly collapse then the Postseason is well within their grasp. Still, it’s becoming very clear that the team won’t be able to simply put it into cruise control down the stretch. There are some real concerns with this team at the moment and hopefully we’ll see them get addressed at some point soon. We’ll see what happens, though.
