Listen, I know many of you reading this read the title and think you already know the answer.
“No!” is the most likely refrain were I to post somewhere else, looking to spark discussion or creating some kind of snap poll that looked for a majority vote. Based on his performance this year where it matters, I’m not sure that I would blame you. A 6.82 ERA thanks to his allowing 26 runs in 33 innings are not numbers one wants to see from one of it’s supposed high leverage relievers.
Yet I am here to tell
you, dear reader…..Jose Alvarado has indeed stunk up the ballpark in 2026. He’s allowing a ton of runs, walking too many hitters and falling behind in too many counts as to make at bats uncompetitive for him before they’ve really even begun. There really is no way to dance around these facts. It leads to the question of, can he and his season be salvaged to let him be something important down the line in the season?
There was a question that was asked of Justin Verlander this All-Star weekend where his answer really interested me.
What Verlander is saying is something we should be thinking more about as the game moves forward. Stuff models are very useful in the modern game as they are the ways pitchers learn new pitches, refine what they have already, basically all the ways they can get better at their craft. His point about hitters being able to tell a pitcher information about his pitches is getting a little lose along the way makes sense and is further broadening the divide between baseball purists and “the nerds”.
Alvarado is a great case here as his under the hood stuff, according to Baseball Savant, his season hasn’t been too bad. Take a quick peek at it and there is a lot of red going on, a good thing for a pitcher to have as it means a lot of what we are looking for in pitcher effectiveness is in the top percentiles.
He’s doing a lot of things the team wants him to do well, he’s just not seeing the results in the counting stats we see on a scoreboard. Looking at if from a subjective point of view, it’s something that everyone can see plain as day, that he is giving up a ton of runs in a few innings. Whatever trust there was to bring him into high leverage situations seems to be evaporating quickly. Which begs the question: why does the team continue to put him into high leverage situations? Is his stuff that good that he continues to warrant looks in those situations?
It really does depend on what you think of how people evaluate “stuff”. Fangraphs takes Stuff+ for each pitcher and ranks them for each pitch they throw. If we narrow the leaderboards to 20 innings pitched to make sure that Alvarado is included, he has some of the best pitches in the game:
- sinker: 120 Stuff+ (t-15th among 339 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)
- curveball: 147 Stuff+ (2nd among 208 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)
- cutter: 115 Stuff+ (6th among 203 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)
From this model, Alvarado has some of the best stuff in the majors as a reliever and is a great choice to be brought into a game when it is tight. Yet, how can he be so bad when his stuff is this good? This is where the hitters telling a pitcher if his pitch is any good comes into play. Hitters this season have a .481 slugging percentage against his sinker and a . 444 slugging against the cutter. They are simply hammering the good stuff he is pitching with. This is backed up by his Location+ number, especially for the sinker.
- sinker: 93 Location+ (t-244th among 339 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)
- curveball: 66 Location+ (200th among 208 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)
- cutter: 101 Location+ (108th among 203 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)
The location he has with his pitches is simply horrendous, which leads to hitters being able to hit the ball better, which leads to worse results no matter how good your stuff is according to the pitch models. Until Alvarado can start to locate his stuff better, he’s going to continue getting hit hard. So there’s no hope in his being able to turn it around, right?
Not necessarily.
There is also the argument for Alvarado being unlucky, an argument that can be made by looking at his BABIP. That number right now is an unsightly .440, twenty-three points higher than the next closest pitcher according to Fangraphs. When I first looked at that, it seemed abnormally high, even for a team with the defense the Phillies currently has. If you wanted to know if that was unprecedented or not, using Stathead, I looked up how many pitchers have had a BABIP of .425 or higher and thrown at least thirty innings as a reliever only in a season over the past forty years.
There are four.
And Alvarado has the highest BABIP of them quartet.
It doesn’t help that he has that pretty terrible defense behind him, which has to be taken into account a bit when considering that number, but there is an amount of unlucky-ness that occurring when he is on the mound that is leading to the results he has. You can see it in the quality of contact he has running with.
Listen, Alvarado has not been very good this season. Using “bad” might be a little strong in arguing about it, but I wouldn’t argue too much were you to go that route. However, I’d also ask that we pause before writing him totally off for the season. Alvarado is working with some good stuff as we can see based on different pitch models. That’s a great foundation from which to be a reliever. Where he’s throwing it needs work, an issue that has dogged Alvarado his whole career. If he’s able to reign in the command even a bit the rest of the way, there is the chance that either he starts getting a little luckier with balls put in play, or he’s able to strike hitters out a little more often and not have to involve his defense as much.
Can he be salvaged? Sure.
It’ll all depend on him.
