As the Red Sox approach Opening Day, it’s time to start taking at look at the other American League playoff contenders. First up, a team that finished with one more win than the Sox in 2025.
What’s This Team’s Deal?
After a heartbreaking loss to the Blue Jays in Game 7 of the ALCS kept the Mariners from their very first World Series, they are looking to maintain that momentum and do one better in 2026.
They are hungry for more, and it’s not just the players; the front office has gotten in on the act too. President of baseball
operations Jerry Dipoto’s infamous 2023 quote, where he professed to aiming to win only 54% of the time, typifies the past approach. Not this season. The Mariners believe their time is now, and they have made offseason moves to take charge of their own destiny. They locked down Josh Naylor at first base. They signed Brendan Donovan to stabilize third base; both of these players improve the offense as well.
Their starting rotation, which has remained nearly unchanged for the past three seasons, barring fluctuations for injuries, remains upper echelon, though unfortunately Bryce Miller will likely start the season on the IL.
How Good Are They?
Many are already predicting they will represent the American League in the World Series. At this point, Jon Morosi thinks they have the most balanced, talented distribution of players of all the teams in the AL.
Recent Mariners rosters have leaned into streaky players, and some like Julio Rodriguez, who take time to warm up. This has led them to rely too much on Cal Raleigh for offense. In 2026, that weight should be distributed more evenly with a full year of Naylor and the addition of Donovan. They are reliable bats, not just defensive upgrades. Second-year player Cole Young, who will likely start at second base, had some impressive moments in the summer, including whaling the longest Mariners home run of the season. An extended and ugly slump cost him the starting job, but spring training reports suggest he used his winter productively, returning as an improved hitter and defender. If he can be part of the infield turnaround, as well as provide flashy pop from time to time, the Mariners will have finally put the pieces together.
Typically, as with most teams, there is some uncertainty around the bullpen. Morosi and others note that Mariners relievers pitched a lot of innings in the postseason, and several (notably Andres Muñoz, Gabe Speier, and Eduard Bazardo) also played in the World Baseball Classic. Did they have enough time to reset over their shortened offseason? Time will tell. There are a number of new relievers, like old friend Alex Hoppe, who are getting some serious looks in spring training. For others, it may be more like the front office kicking the tires. Expect the Mariners to bolster the bullpen at the trade deadline no matter what, at least as a line of defense against injury.
Most Likable Player
The Mariners are full of likable players but for our purposes, it comes down to two:
- Cal Raleigh is the backbone of this team. His historic 2025 season included doing just about everything: supporting the pitching staff, winning the Home Run Derby, hitting 60 HRs, captaining the team deeper into the postseason than they have ever been before, and being the most serious MVP runner-up in years. With his New England family ties, grinder mentality, and Red Sox Nation’s potboiling anger over Aaron Judge beating him out for said MVP, he’s the guy.
- Rob Refsnyder. I was sorry to see him leave Boston, but if he had to go, I’m glad I can still watch him with the Mariners.
Least Likable Player
The whole team is genuinely likable, but Randy Arozarena raised eyebrows during the WBC by beefing with Raleigh. (Not his parents though! Notably not his parents.) If this tension doesn’t get resolved or blow over once Arozarena and Raleigh are teammates once again, Arozarena will be the bad guy.
Old Friends
Although the teams have resisted repeated calls for high-profile trades with each other, there are a number of old friends to keep an eye on this year:
- Rob Refsnyder (sniffle)
- Cooper Criswell, who is off to a good start in the Mariners organization
- Alex Hoppe, former Sox prospect who may see the bigs this season as right-handed relief, but will likely be up and down between Triple-A and Seattle
- Eduard Bazardo, who pitched very well in the 2025 postseason
- Gabe Speier, who began his career with the Red Sox minor league system, but was traded away years ago in the package for Rick Porcello
Honorable Mention
Dominic Canzone, Brewster Whitecaps alum.
Schedule vs. Red Sox
The Sox and Mariners will face each other in the regular season for two three-game series. The Sox visit T-Mobile Park June 19-21, while the Mariners head to Boston August 31-September 2.
Season Prediction
It would be extremely unlikely for Raleigh to repeat with another individually historic year, but he will channel that competitiveness and drive toward the greater good of the team. The AL West is the Mariners’ to lose. Last year, they were 90-72 and won the AL West by three games. With their strong pitching and improved overall roster, they’ll gain five wins and finish the regular season 95-67, sitting pretty for a deep run in October. They’ll likely make the Series against the Dodgers, barring some catastrophe on either side. And if that happens, given how well-matched the Blue Jays (who barely escaped the Mariners’ clutches) and Dodgers were in 2025, it will be a fair fight.
