Purdue is mortal, as it turns out.
In my heart of hearts I knew there was very little chance of Purdue going 40-0 this year to go down as the greatest college team of all time, but moments like the final nine minutes of the first half against Texas Tech, where Purdue goes full thermonuclear and evaporates a good team, happen. You wish you could bottle that to pull out at crucial moments (say this past Saturday). That’s the Purdue that looks utterly unbeatable.
The reality is that even great teams have
a bad day. It is when you have a bad day (and if you can overcome it) that defines those teams. In 2023 Purdue had its worst day at the worst time against FDU and it went down as the worst loss in NCAA Tournament history. The next year its “bad day” was probably the loss at Nebraska, where the Huskers shot the lights out, but the end result was ultimately meaningless.
That’s where we stand now. If we can all calm down and stop demanding crazy things like Fletcher Loyer (Purdue’s leading scorer and a 46% three-point shooter) being benched for Omer Mayer we can see that Saturday might just have been Purdue’s bad day. There is one every season. Purdue is still a very, very good team that, when at its best, can be matched only by very few other teams. If we were magically running things back and playing Iowa State against on Saturday in a rematch I would pick us without question, because there is no way in hell we’re playing that poorly in a big game at home again. Purdue’s offense was very bad and its defense fell apart as a result. It’s not like it is a bad loss in any way, shape, or form.
If Purdue gets to the end of the year at 28-3 it will be forgotten entirely. It will win the Big Ten and get a No. 1 seed, and there is zero doubt in my mind about that. We’re more likely to beat ourselves, like Saturday, than have another team just straight up beat us.
Purdue Boilermakers Profile
Record: 8-1, 1-0 Big Ten
NET: 9
KenPom: 6
Bracket Matrix Consensus Seed: 2
Tier 1 Wins (KenPom) Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75: 13 Alabama (Away), 19 Texas Tech (Neutral)
Tier 2 Wins (KenPom): Home 31-75 Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135: 55 Akron (Home), 66 Memphis (Neutral)
Tier 1 Wins (NET) Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75: 11 Alabama (Away), 18 Texas Tech (Neutral)
Tier 2: Home 31-75 (NET) Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135: 40 Akron
Bad Losses (Sub-100 NET or KenPom): None
Evansville Purple Aces (4-6, 0-0 MVC) – NET 293, KenPom 281 – Since we last checked on the Aces they beat Ball State 64-52 at home but lost to Western Kentucky by a point on the road 80-79. They are getting better, but still barely in the top 300. Their next game is Saturday at Notre Dame.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies (5-5, 1-0 Horizon) – NET 134, KenPom 147– The first time this year people had great fears about Purdue was when the Boilers briefly trailed Oakland in the second half. Now the Golden Grizzlies have a win over Purdue (Fort Wayne edition) 101-92 to start conference play. They followed that up with a decent 98-97 win over Toledo.
Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2, 0-0 SEC) – NET 11, KenPom 13 – One could argue that Purdue’s really good road win at Alabama kind of cancels out the Iowa State loss. They racked up a home win over Clemson 90-84 in the ACC/SEC Challenge 90-84 and beat UTSA 97-55 on Sunday. They can make a huge statement on Saturday in Birmingham with a game against No. 1 Arizona.
Akron Zips (6-2, 0-0 MAC – NET 40, KenPom 55) – Akron continues to look like a surprisingly good win. They probably have a long climb to be an at large team, especially when they lost their only two games against Tier 1 teams in Purdue and Yale, but they are still the class of the MAC. Ion the past week they beat Bucknell 97-77 and Tulane 88-71. This weekend they have a neutral site game against a decent Murray State team.
Memphis Tigers (4-4, 0-0 American) – NET 126, KenPom 66 – This is the win that has the best chance to drastically improve as time goes on, and Memphis did its part by beating New Orleans 86-70 and Baylor 78-71 in the past week. Things will look even better for them if they can win at Louisville on Saturday.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-2, 0-0 Big 12) – NET 18, KenPom 28 – The Red Raiders handled LSU in Fort Worth pretty easily in an 82-58 win and like so many other good teams, they have a great neutral site game this Saturday in Dallas against Arkansas.
Eastern Illinois Panthers (2-6, 0-1 Ohio Valley) – NET 329, KenPom 332 – This team is very bad and this was a paycheck game. They lost their conference opener to Lindenwood 82-74, but on Sunday we get to see how they recover against Iowa State in Ames.
Iowa State Cyclones (9-0, 0-0 Big 12) – Net 3, KenPom 2 – I begin with a preface: Iowa State is a good team. The national media this week is hyping them tremendously. Yes, they won by 23 points in Mackey Arena where no one wins by 23 points, but Fletcher Loyer and TKR combined to shoot 3 of 16 from the floor and score 9 points. They average 28.3, so them having their worst day in a very long time gives you 19 of those 23 points. Purdue shot poorly, was pushed around uncharacteristically on the glass, and struggled defensively. Nothing went right. Right now it is Iowa State’s turn to get blown by the media, but it is a long season. I trust us more in the long run.
Marquette Golden Eagles (5-5, 0-0 Big East) – NET 169, KenPom 92 – The Golden Eagles lost their big rivalry game at Wisconsin 96-76, so this is a better litmus test to see if Purdue is just coming off of a bad day or if there are larger issues. As long as the Boilers cruise to a win on Saturday all is well.
Auburn Tigers (7-3, 0-0 SEC) – NET 33, KenPom 29 – Auburn is a fascinating team. They beat NC State 83-73 in the SEC/ACC Challenge, but got blasted by Arizona 97-68 in Tucson this past weekend. Two of their three losses have now been by 30+ to the top 2 teams in the poll right now, but they have a narrow one point loss to Houston as well.
Kent State Golden Flashes (9-1, 0-0 MAC) – NET 146, KenPom 128 – Kent State’s win streak is now at nine after beating Roberts Wesleyan 111-68 and Austin Peay 96-84. They are a team that might challenge Akron in the MAC for the automatic bid.
Likely NCAA Teams: Alabama, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Auburn, Akron (Autobid)
Could play to the Bubble: Marquette, Memphis
