Wow that was ugly. After a four-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees, the Orioles are making like the snowbirds, leaving the Bronx for the sunnier climate of Miami, and frankly, it’s a relief.
The Marlins are a less scary opponent, but they can’t be taken lightly, either. (And these hot-and-cold Orioles have had a way of playing down to the competition, so you can never get too cocky.) At 16-19, they’re holding down second place in the NL East. They, too, have hot-or-cold tendencies: they took two
of three from the mighty Dodgers last week, but have also recently dropped series to St. Louis and Milwaukee.
The Marlins, unusually, are a good-hitting team this year. They’re not much in the power department with a fourth-lowest 25 homers, but their collective .252 average outranks all but seven teams. As a team, they’ve been led by three players playing out of their minds: shortstop Otto Lopez (.341 BA and a MLB-leading 45 hits in 33 games), second baseman Xavier Edwards (.336 BA, .896 OPS) and catcher Liam Hicks (.309 BA, .923 OPS). Hicks, in just his second year, has nearly exceeded his WAR from 120 games his rookie season. Former Orioles friends haven’t excelled: Kyle Stowers has missed time due to a hamstring, and infielder Connor Norby has just been just-OK, with a .238 average and 107 OPS+ so far.
Miami’s starting pitching staff has been a weakness over the last two seasons, despite having a guy like Sandy Alcantara fronting it. This year, the rotation is just above average, while the team’s main weakness lies in the bullpen. The team has blown nine games in which they had a lead, which seems like a sizeable number to me. Closer Pete Fairbanks is on the 15-day IL with nerve irritation, and others, like Anthony Bender, Andrew Nardi and Calvin Faucher, have been ineffective.
Following injuries to Trevor Rogers and Dean Kremer, a pitching-strapped O’s will be countering with Chris Bassitt, Brandon Young and Cade Povich. Young and Povich in particular are giving Little Engine That Could vibes: you root hard for them, but frequently view them as outmatched.
Game 1: Tuesday, May 5, 6:40 ET
Chris Bassitt (2-2, 5.46, 17 SO) vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.04 ERA, 31 SO)
Alcantara opened 2026 with his franchise-record sixth straight Opening Day start, throwing 7 shutout innings against the Rockies. He followed that up with a complete-game shutout of the White Sox on April 1, striking out seven and allowing just three hits in a 10-0 romp. After his rough 2025—a full season back from Tommy John surgery that produced a 5.36 ERA—this looks more like the vintage Alcantara, with a fastball that generally sits around 97 mph and maxes out around 101. His 3.04 ERA comes with a solid 1.16 WHIP.
Signs Chris Bassitt is figuring it out: he’s given up one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts. Signs he’s not: the Royals tagged him for five runs on eight hits on April 22. The veteran righty has a career 3.68 ERA. I choose to believe.
Game 2: Wednesday, May 6, 6:40 ET
Brandon Young (2-1, 6.14 ERA, 9 SO) vs. RHP Eury Pérez (2-3, 4.46 ERA, 39 SO)
Eury Pérez is 23 years old and already seems to have lived a lifetime in pitcher years. He debuted in 2023 at age 20, posting a nice 3.15 ERA in 19 starts. Then he missed all of 2024 with Tommy John. A 4.25 ERA on his return seemed like a dip, but he had a strong 1.05 WHIP and 3.67 FIP. This season has been his worst so far: his 4.63 FIP suggests he’s getting hit, hard, and so does a 13.9% barrel percentage in the bottom seventh percentile of pitchers. The strikeout stuff is very much present, but he’s also walking more hitters than he ever has. This is the matchup the Orioles need to take advantage of.
Thrust into the rotation by Dean Kremer’s quad injury, the big Texan has had one good start in three tries: a scoreless five innings against the White Sox on April 6. Since, he’s given up three runs in 5 ⅔ innings against Boston and—gulp—ten runs in four innings against Houston. There’s been talk about Young working on his offspeed pitches in the offseason: if so, this would be a good time to see it.
Game 3: Thursday, May 7, 6:40 ET
Cade Povich (1-1, 4.41 ERA, 11 SO) vs. RHP Max Meyer (1-0, 3.30 ERA, 33 SO)
Drafted third overall by the Marlins in 2020, Max Meyer is currently Miami’s best starter in sheer WAR (1.1, edging out Alcantara’s 1.0). Through seven starts he has a 3.30 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 30⅔ innings, averaging 9.9 K/9, with opponents hitting just .207 against him. Length isn’t a strength of his, yet, as he’s averaging just five innings per outing, but he’s been effective. His most recent start saw him throw five scoreless innings against the Giants.
The only southpaw in the rotation right now, Cade Povich is always teetering on the edge of success in the major leagues, it feels like. But inevitably he’ll flash his significant strikeout potential, then lay an egg. This inconsistency works out to a kind of consistency, as he posted nearly identical ERA’s in 2023 and ‘24: 5.20, give or take one hundredths of a point. Like Young, Povich was not supposed to be in the rotation, but that’s where we are. In three starts so far, he’s allowed eight runs in 16.1 innings.
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It’s hard to feel massive optimism about the Orioles right now, fresh off a sweep in the Bronx and putting out a starter lineup of Bassitt, Young and Povich heading into Miami. Injuries stink, but this backup plan feels more typical of a rebuilding year than what fans were promised for these next few seasons. Maybe I’m just a grouch. We’ll see if these early May doldrums end up characterizing the season.
So, Birdland faithful, how do you think the Orioles will fare in their trip to the 305? Sound off in the comments.
