Mariners Game #104 Preview and Discussion: 7/24, SEA at TEX

Cue the tumbleweed and the ocarina (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images Big Tex gets a chance to be bigger than Texas tonight. Bryce Miller, owner of the nickname, will face off against the Rangers in Arlington at 5:05 PT. Since coming back fr

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What is the story about?

Big Tex gets a chance to be bigger than Texas tonight. Bryce Miller, owner of the nickname, will face off against the Rangers in Arlington at 5:05 PT. Since coming back from an oblique strain that cost him the first quarter of the season, Miller has been having the best year of his career. He’s striking out 29.5% of batters while walking just 4.1%, a K-BB% that’s good for fourth-best in MLB (min. 60 IP), nestled right between the folks in the Cy Young conversation. The rest of the top eight is Miz,

Skubal, Cease, Wheeler, Schittler, deGrom, and Skenes. Unfortunately, Miller’s fastball velocity, and his results, have been on a downward trajectory over the past month.

He’ll face off against MacKenzie Gore, jewel of the Rangers’ offseason. On one hand, he’s pitched much better than his 4.80 ERA suggests, with xERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA about a full point lower. On the other hand, about 4.00 still isn’t what the Rangers were hoping for. And even worse, he’s historically been a much worse performer in the second half, sort of the anti-Julio.

Lineups

J.P. Crawford is still out of the lineup, so Weston Wilson gets another start at third base. But with Dominic Canzone having worked his way into starts against lefties, the only other change from the typical lineup is that Mitch Garver will DH. It’s masked in his overall stats from all the times he had to face righties while Cal Raleigh was on the IL, but Garver’s been actively good against left-handed pitching this year. He’s at a 107 wRC+ against southpaws, and even amid his decline over the past three years combined, he’s at 114. For context, across MLB, designated hitters have a 108 wRC+ against lefties over the past three seasons.

While this still seems like the same era of Rangers baseball as 2023, this is quite a different looking lineup than their World Series run, especially when Corey Seager’s out.