Mizzou’s final two games of the regular season are both on the road as No. 22 takes on No. 8 Oklahoma as one of only two ranked matchups of the day. ESPN’s College Gameday heads to Eugene for USC at Oregon
and plenty of other SEC games round out the Week 13 slate. Let’s make some picks after a couple of weeks off.
Odds presented by our partners over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Stava: 26-13
Deck: 19-10
Gustafson: 17-12
Hurst: 17-8
Matejka: 14-11
No. 22 Missouri Tigers at No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (-7.5) (11:00 a.m. CST on ABC)
Sammy Stava: Missouri has the potential to make this game competitive. We’ve seen them compete with Alabama and Vanderbilt but just not breakthrough. Going on the road against Oklahoma might just be too tall of a task with what looks like true freshman QB Matt Zollers getting the start. Sooners make enough plays to win this one. 24-20 OU.
True Deck: Similar to what I said in pregamin’, I don’t see Missouri matching up well against Oklahoma. I think that solid teams have their way against the Tigers and I could see this game falling into a similar situation as A&M. I’ll take the Sooners plus the points, 28-19.
Matthew Gustafson: Oklahoma’s defensive front is going to make life incredibly difficult for the Tigers and make it an uphill battle to put points on the board. Combine that with home field advantage and every game being a must-win for the Sooners’ playoff chances, and it might be too much for Mizzou to overcome. I think the Tigers keep this one close with the help of another strong defensive performance but fall 24-17.
Nathan Hurst: This game actually resembles last year’s match up in quite a few ways. The two big differences, however, are that 1) it’s in Norman this time, and 2) It’s Mizzou with the freshman quarterback and Oklahoma with the journeyman experienced signal caller. I think this one will be close and Mizzou will cover the spread, but ultimately the Sooners will win a gross one, 19-13.
Josh Matejka: I’d feel better about this game if Beau Pribula were actually returning, but it appears that Norman might be one week too soon for him. The Tigers’ defense is on a roll, and that’ll keep them in a game against anyone. But Oklahoma’s run defense will do enough to bottle up Hardy and Roberts, putting a Top 10 road upset on Matt Zollers’ shoulders. I’m not seeing it. 27-16 Sooners.
No. 15 USC Trojans at No. 7 Oregon Ducks (-9.5) (2:30 p.m. CST on CBS)
Sammy Stava: Oregon comes in at No. 7 in the latest CFP rankings. That may seem like a comfortable spot for them, but they probably can’t afford to drop another home game. They won’t as they’re the more complete team than USC. 35-31, Ducks.
True Deck:I think that Dante Moore and Oregon have proven that they are a top notch program this season and I don’t feel exactly the same about USC. Especially in Eugene, I think the Ducks take care of business. Like Sammy said, Oregon is the more complete team. 42-28, Ducks.
Matthew Gustafson: Oregon is a playoff-caliber team, but I just don’t think the same is true of USC. With the Ducks at home, I’m expecting them to knock the Trojans out of CFP contention. Oregon wins 38-28.
Nathan Hurst: USC has had a fairly resurgent season compared to their recent mid teams. If this game was in L.A. I might actually think about picking the Trojans because Oregon hasn’t really blown me away this season. That said, it’s in Eugene, so I’m going to pick the Ducks 31-27.
Josh Matejka: I don’t know what to make of either of these teams, but I do have a steadfast belief in Dan Lanning as a coach that gets things done when it counts (unless we’re talking about the latter stages of the CFP.) Let’s say Ducks win in a nail-biter, 38-34.
Kentucky Wildcats at No. 14 Vanderbilt Commodores (-8.5) (2:30 p.m. CST on ESPN)
Sammy Stava: Vandy takes care of business at home against an improving Kentucky team to set up next week’s game at Tennessee with a CFP bid on the line. Diego Pavia and the Dores get it done on their Senior Day (PLEASE let this be Pavia’s last home game). 31-20, Commodores.
True Deck: I think the fall off of Vandy is here. This game, with SEC Nation in the building, has high CFP stakes on the line and I could see Kentucky playing spoiler. Give me the Wildcats to cover and WIN, 27-24.
Matthew Gustafson: Vanderbilt will be motivated to win this one as they hold on to their CFP hopes by a thread. Kentucky does not have anywhere near the same level of motivation entering this game, and that helps provide the difference as Diego Pavia puts on one last show in Nashville (unless the ‘Dores go to the Music City Bowl, that is). Vandy beats the Wildcats 31-24.
Nathan Hurst: I picked Kentucky to cover the spread in this one in Best Bets this week and my opinions have changed. I do think Vanderbilt will ultimately win, but the Wildcats are on a three-game winning streak and have finally found a competent quarterback. Give me the Commodores 20-17.
Josh Matejka: Diego Pavia will take advantage of his last home game as a Commodore… that is, until he appeals for another 3 years of eligibility this offseason. 35-23, Dores.
Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 17 Texas Longhorns (-8.5) (2:30 p.m. CST on ABC)
Sammy Stava: Arkansas is still winless in the SEC but have been in almost every game it seems like. With Texas out of the running for the CFPM, there might be a case here for the Razorbacks to upset the Longhorns. Though I still see Arch Manning and the Horns getting it done especially at home, 31-20.
True Deck: I think this is a fun matchup and while I think Texas, on paper, is one of the best teams in the country, I still think there are some questions for that team. Arkansas obviously hasn’t had any luck in its favor this season when it comes to SEC play, but I think they find a way to at least cover. Give me the Longhorns outright, but the Pigs to cover, 32-28.
Matthew Gustafson: Arkansas has been a tough squad to beat, and I might even consider picking an upset if this was in Fayetteville. But suffering close loss after close loss has to wear on a team, and the Razorbacks’ suspect defense will do them in. Give me Texas, 35-24.
Nathan Hurst: Arkansas hasn’t quit yet, despite an innumerable amount of close losses. I think this week is finally the week we see the big Q word. I think Texas blows them out of the water in Austin 38-17.
Josh Matejka: Arkansas is still fighting, but I get the sense the close losses are starting to wear on them. Arch Manning isn’t perfect, but he won’t need to be against the Razorbacks defense. Texas takes it at home, 34-20.
No. 20 Tennessee Volunteers (-3.5) at Florida Gators (6:30 p.m. CST on ABC)
Sammy Stava: A night game at The Swamp? Florida might only be 3-7, but the Gators are probably better than their record shows and should at least be competitive in this one. Vols still have the makeup of the better team, however. 28-24 Tennessee.
True Deck: Pretty surprising line originally but then you look into it and Florida is hungry for a win, and Tennessee might be due for a loss. I think this one goes to the wire but the Gators pull it out for some late-season madness. Give me Florida in an exciting one, 49-41.
Matthew Gustafson: Night game in The Swamp is a phrase that no opposing team wants to hear, and the Gators have the raw talent to match up with Tennessee. But I wonder if three consecutive losses, including a blowout defeat at the hand of Kentucky, begin to take their toll here. I’ll take Tennessee, 31-27.
Nathan Hurst: Tennessee hasn’t won a game in Gainsville in decades. Florida has continued to play hard despite losing their coach in a lost season and I don’t expect that to change this week either. That said, I am picking Tennessee to pull out a close one that is down to the wire. 27-24 Volunteers.
Josh Matejka: Tennessee’s next two games are fascinating and Florida has a case as the best 3-7 team to ever exist. I get why Florida isn’t favored here, but -3.5 seems almost like underrating them. I still say Tennessee gets the win, but it’ll be a looooooong night for the Volunteer faithful. 24-23.
