Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Pro Football Focus and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
For most of the day, the Colts defense stopped the Titans from moving the ball.
Tennessee managed only 20 first downs and a 71.4% Drive Success Rate — and even that may be inflated by a late garbage-time touchdown.
The defense managed only two three-and-outs on the day, but they kept the Titans out of the red zone on seven of ten drives, forcing an interception, five punts, a turnover on downs, and a long field goal attempt.
TEAM TOTALS
Mouseover for definitions: PPD, Adj PPD, W-L, Pyth Wins, PPG, Yds, DSR, Strt Fld, yds/ply, EPA/ply, adj TSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP%
The defense ranks 7th in Points per Drive this week, which is slightly better than most of the underlying defensive metrics. They ranked 12th in Drive Success Rate, 10th in EPA per play, 11th in yards per play, 11th in success rate, and 11th in play conversion rate.
Points are what matter, so I’ll gladly take the 7th-place finish — but the defense actually played a bit worse than that in terms of ball movement. This is a classic “bend don’t break” defense, which isn’t as good as a “don’t bend, don’t break” defense, but I’ll take whatever works.
Looking across all games, the Colts defense appears strong on the surface — holding opponents to the 6th-lowest points per game — but that figure is highly misleading. Points per Drive is a far more predictive measure of future performance, and by that metric, Indianapolis drops to 15th.
Even that ranking comes with context, as the Colts have faced several below-average offenses. When adjusting for opponent strength, my model places the defense 25th on the year, though that may represent an “over-adjustment” given the limited schedule. As the season progresses, that number will stabilize, but for now it’s fair to say the defense grades out somewhere between 15th and 25th. I know that’s a wide range, but the point is — it’s not 6th.
PASS TOTALS
Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, Adj EPA/d, PSR, Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sck, Sck Y, Sck Fum, Scrm, Scrm Yds, Scrm TD, Scrm Fum, 1st/db, ny/d, cmp %, aDOT, CPOE, Air Yd, YAC, 20+ #/Yd
The Colts held the Tennessee passing game in check, limiting Cam Ward to the 6th-worst EPA per dropback. His Success Rate was slightly better (14th-worst), but his red-zone interception tanked his efficiency. He also posted the 9th-worst yards per dropback and the 10th-worst pass play conversion rate. I’d comfortably call that a top-10 defensive performance against one of the worst passing teams in the NFL.
On the year, I have the Colts pass defense ranked 19th after adjusting for opponent strength — and given the injuries they’ve dealt with, I’ll take it.
RUSH TOTALS
Mouseover definitions: wgt RSR, adj RSR, YDS, CAR, TD, 1st, Fum Lost, RSR, 1st/c, YPC, 10+ #/Yd, 3rd, EPA/c,
In a change of pace, the Colts defense was strong against the run. Although they allowed 4.4 yards per carry (8th most) and the 10th-highest EPA per carry, they kept a lid on first downs, holding Tennessee to the 7th-lowest run-play conversion rate of the week. Adjust for situation, and that translates to the 5th-best defensive weighted Rush Success Rate in Week 8.
On the year, however, the news isn’t as good. After opponent adjustments, the Colts run defense ranks only 21st, allowing the 11th-highest run-play conversion rate in the league — driven by a league-worst 82.6% third-down conversion rate.
CONCLUSION
Tennessee doesn’t have a good offense, but holding an opponent to 14 points — with seven of those coming in garbage time — still qualifies as a solid defensive day. Indy was good against the pass and strong against the run, getting stops when they needed them by forcing a turnover and a failed fourth-down attempt.
I just wish the cumulative season effort looked as good. The Colts are a below-average defense against both the run and the pass, so when they face strong offensive opponents, if they can’t re-produce their 6th ranked take-away success, it could spell trouble — terrible, terrible trouble.
