At the start of every season, we do a ‘Bold Predictions’ piece here on Amazin’ Avenue. Last year, my bold prediction was a sub-2.50 ERA for Kodai Senga. My thought process, at the time, seemed sound:
With stronger up the middle defense, a potential six-man rotation, and a coaching staff more aligned with the front office, things seem like they may be working in Senga’s favor. Already this spring, Senga’s velocity is back up to the high 90s, and his ghost fork is diving out of the strike zone like it did
in ‘23. If he can stay healthy, Senga is poised to have a monster season.
Welp.
Senga’s actual 2026 ERA was nearly three times the ceiling I set for it, finishing the year with a 7.34 mark. To say that everything went wrong for Senga is somewhat underselling just how terrible of a year he had, almost from the very beginning.
After two fine starts, in which he allowed two earned runs apiece over six and five and two-thirds innings, respectively, Senga’s season hit the skids in spectacular fashion. We all know that early season rate stats are never reliable, but let’s keep using ERA as the benchmark. After his second start, his ERA was 3.09. After his third, it was 7.07 and it never went south of that number again all season.
That is especially remarkable because, . But after his last start, his ERA was at a season high 10.08.
Senga spent six weeks or so on the Injured List with both spine inflammation and ulnar nerve irritation. When he came back, things didn’t exactly get better. He made three more starts before being demoted to the bullpen, and gave up thirteen earned runs, five home runs, and ten walks in those 12 and two-third innings.
So what happened? Well, the short answer is that his stuff somewhat disappeared and his walk rate ballooned. He was still getting strikeouts, and at a fairly similar rate, but what was gone was the weak contact that made him such a valuable member of the rotation. When Senga was getting hit this season, he was getting hit hard. He was bottom 5% in the all of baseball in wOBA against and walk rate.
The good news for the Mets was that once he moved into the bullpen, and especially since he was made the de facto closer with Devin Williams on the shelf, his performance not just leveled out, but he showed real skill at the role. He had just two truly bad outings as closer, while racking up eight saves. Simply put, in short bursts, Senga was good.
It is hard to lower your ERA out of the bullpen due to the natural innings limits that exist, but Senga dropped his ERA nearly three runs in his three months out of the bullpen. Once he made the switch to the bullpen, he gave up just nine runs in 30 and a third innings pitched, lowering his ERA from its season high 10.08 after his last start.
If Senga is comfortable with a bullpen role, this appears to be the way that the Mets can salvage the final year of his contract and give the team some more stability from the starting rotation. If not, it’s going to be another rollercoaster of a year for Senga and the Metropolitans.
In my defense, Senga’s ERA once he made the switch to the bullpen was 2.05. So, from a certain point of view, I nailed by bold prediction.
You’re welcome.
