The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills are no strangers to one another. Their potentially AFC East-deciding game on Sunday will be the 133rd overall meeting in the series, and the second this season
after a 23-20 Patriots win in Week 5.
Since that game in early October, however, a lot has happened. So, to find out more about the Patriots’ Week 15 opponent, we spoke with Matt Byham of Pats Pulpit’s sister site Buffalo Rumblings, the SB Nation community for all things Bills.
Here is what he told us about the upcoming game and opponent.
1. What are the most significant improvements and regressions the Bills have made since these teams met in Week 5?
By and large, the Bills still “feel” similar to the team they were in Week 5. That is, they’re mysterious in a lot of ways. One looks at the stats, and things seem pretty darn good over at One Bills Drive. I won’t belabor you with them, but it’s pretty clear that Josh Allen and James Cook have the league’s attention. But stats man, they don’t tell the entire story.
Regarding Allen and Cook specifically, turnovers are up. With Allen that’s true overall as compared to 2024 — and too many of his turnovers have come in the red zone, which almost never happened before. Cook’s fumbles haven’t cost the team games, whereas it’s fair to say Allen’s had a few turnovers that contributed to a loss.
Another regression is the entire wide receivers room. They have their moments, but there isn’t a pass catcher on the team trending for even 800 yards receiving. That’s including Allen’s top target in tight end Dalton Kincaid. At receiver it’s still Khalil Shakir, but he’s not finding the same opportunity or success as he had in 2024. The receivers situation is a mess, and I expect them to invest heavily there next offseason. Some of the trouble is due to the alarming amount of players who are repeatedly injured. Some of it seems as though the receivers are ripe for criticism on their own merits, while still other concerns lie at the feet of offensive coordinator Joe Brady and his scheme. So what is it? Probably all of that and more.
Improvements? It’s on defense, at linebacker and safety. Shaq Thompson has come in for an injured Terrel Bernard and many are wondering if the improved run defense is due to that development. At safety, where Cole Bishop was an alarming liability early in action, now he’s being discussed as one of the top safeties in 2025. Why? He’s working alongside Jordan Poyer now. Poyer took over for Taylor Rapp, who went on Injured Reserve after playing hurt.
2. What similarities and differences do you see between Drake Maye and Josh Allen given their places in the MVP race?
As editor in chief of Buffalo Rumblings, I am not the foremost word on Drake Maye, so I ask for your patience with me as I likely stumble in trying to assess who Maye is and what he is not. I just don’t have the opportunity to digest film of him like I’d prefer to offer a more thorough point of view.
I see this similar toward trying to compare and critique the Porsche Carrera GT and the Lexus LFA. They’re amazing, even if it’s not the right group of “Top Gear presenters doing ‘Top Gear’ things.” Oh right, this is about quarterbacks. Carry on!
But look… it’s unfair to compare anyone to Josh Allen. That’s also true of his contemporaries in Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, maybe even Joe Burrow, and possibly a few others — all without looking back to a GOAT named Tom Brady. Allen found success early because of his incredible ability to ad-lib, whereas Maye appears (to me) to be a far more polished player early in his career, and someone really willing to take everything a defense will give him.
That willingness has also entered Allen’s game, but for sure it wasn’t always a part of him — and likely won’t ever be what his game is all about. A lot of that may stem from his beginnings where he wasn’t recruited by anyone and had to start at community college before landing at Wyoming. Allen has those intangible traits the likes of professional sports best, the all-time GOATs, even if he doesn’t ultimately end up in conversations with the best of the best.
Allen has proven capable of winning games almost entirely on his own, whereas I don’t know if that’s yet true of Maye. There is no quarterback whose team relies on him more than the Bills do of Allen. I like to call him Buffalo’s fire-breathing unicorn, and he’s allowed the team to miss on more draft prospects than many front offices should be allowed.
As to similarities? It’s the leadership and athleticism first and foremost to me. Maye has of course also shown a willingness and ability to make plays reminiscent in ways to Allen (look no further back than Week 5 escaping defensive tackle DaQuan Jones), but it’s still unfair to compare the two with expectations that they meet in the middle. If you’ll suffer me one more of these: To me, Josh Allen is to the concept of free jazz what Drake Maye is to the concept of math rock.
3. What’s the Bills’ plan B if James Cook can’t get going on the ground?
What’s this about Plan B? Observing what I have from offensive coordinator Joe Brady, there are but one or two options. I suspect that Plan B could simply be more of the same with Cook. This team loves to run the football, and they’re damned good doing it.
And look… Cook is an absolute stud who’s shown he’s every bit deserving of the contract he signed — and arguably should be paid more. The Patriots did well to contain him in Week 5, but I will be shocked if offensive line coach Aaron Kromer hasn’t dialed up something to better attack the heart of New England’s defense.
Say it fails? Well, you’re going to be watching a lot of runs by Josh Allen, and you’ll know they’re coming but unless the Patriots can do what the Houston Texans did, then he’s going to shed and shred the defense. There’s also the wide receiver screen game that Brady loves to feature with Khalil Shakir. That’s effectively a run, and sometimes he gets crazy while calling it to a tight end like Dawson Knox. The insanity shows up when they run those plays on 4th & 1 instead of just letting Allen pick it up or direct snap it to Cook.
The real bonkers moments are found in those times where the offense just shifts away from Cook, which includes his being relegated to the sideline often on third down and in must-score end of half/game scenarios. It’s been said that Cook isn’t a proficient pass blocker. I’m not certain that he’s as horrible as sold, but I also believe that he should be on the field for third down as the best player on the team not named Josh Allen. Why would you want Cook on the field to block anyway? Have him run a route as a receiving threat, while allowing your other quality running back in Ty Johnson stay in to chip then swing out for a screen. Furthermore, that Cook wouldn’t be a priority in must-score scenarios at any point in a game is mind boggling. Yet, here they are still doing such things far too often in 2025.
Who knows, though — Brady could decide that it’s best to have Allen throw 50/50 passes to wide receiver Keon Coleman, or that this is the weekend to feature Gabe Davis like it’s a playoff game.
I guess a lot of this comes down to what one expects of Vrabel and the defense. Is the goal to key in on Cook and throw caution to the wind instead against Allen and a cast of uninspiring wide receivers? Are the Patriots built to neutralize both Cook and Allen? It is true that the Bills are 2-3 when Cook doesn’t rush for 100 yards in 2025.
4. What’s the plan in the secondary if Christian Benford can’t play? Do you anticipate him being active on Sunday?
It’s not all that encouraging that the Bills called up cornerback Dane Jackson. Perhaps they dress him in case of an emergency, but Buffalo has shown to be overly cautious handling most injuries. He may try to give it a go at pregame warmups, but I anticipate him missing the game in order to avoid a bigger problem that would keep him out potentially into the postseason.
Without Benford, you’re likely going to see rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston slide over to his spot. Hairston began his NFL career sidelined due to a knee injury suffered during the early portion of training camp. When he finally returned to the fold earlier this season, it was in a split role with cornerback Tre’Davious White. That’s worked well, and to the pleasant surprise of many, White has looked really solid this season — especially as a tackler and in run support.
Hairston has elite speed, the type that can easily stick with the likes of Tyreek Hill in his prime. He is a rookie, and he’s made mistakes, but the admittedly small body of work has been encouraging. We’ll have to see if Maye believes Hairston is a cornerback to be targeted, or if it’s instead nickel cornerback Taron Johnson when he’s on Stefon Diggs. Everyone interested in this game knows how well Diggs played in Week 5, and unless Buffalo’s defense proves it was a phase, why wouldn’t New England do the same thing in Week 15?
5. What changes are you hoping to see in the Bills’ strategy this time around?
They just need to find a way to win. That, and emphasize a strategy that doesn’t lead to turnovers or turnover on downs thanks to “cute” or ill-advised play calls.
I don’t know if it’s necessarily a change in strategy that’s needed as much as a stronger commitment to excellence of execution. Does Buffalo run it down New England’s throats with 40+ carries based off of two or three run plays? Doubtful. If they did and it worked? More power to them. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady needs to throw away every “cute” play he has in mind during short-yardage situations.
That part of his work has been neutered a bit now that the team parted ways with wide receiver Elijah Moore and Curtis Samuel is on Injured Reserve now after what might actually be his 12th injury this season. I would expect the Bills to test the Patriots in the trenches, early and often due to personnel groupings borne out of injury necessity.
I’ve been calling for what seems like years now to see James Cook utilized more as a receiver, beyond just backfield screens and swings. But at this point, even those are welcome. Brady and/or Allen for whatever reason stray from Cook in that capacity, and instead welcome exposure by running those plays almost exclusively with running back Ty Johnson.
I want to believe the Bills have seen film of Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey and that someone has said “Jimbo can do the same things.” He can, and he should be given those chances.
With a wide receivers room that is deficient in many ways, oh so very many ways, it makes sense to me that they’d try to incorporate the backs more there. Instead, it’s been the tight ends who’ve benefited most, and it works when Dalton Kincaid is healthy. Beyond Allen, Kincaid is the key to Buffalo’s passing attack. In games he misses, the passing attack looks labored at best, and rudimentary or worse at times.
There is one other bit I’d be remiss in not mentioning. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have “faced” each other twice since Diggs was sent away. In both of those games, it was clear that it meant more to each than most other games. And in both games, it sure looked like Allen was pressing in ways almost as if to say “see, I don’t need Diggs to succeed.” Obviously that’s true to an extent, but Allen and Diggs were at their most elite while playing together.
The hope is that Allen has finally put all that behind him if it was a factor in either of the two prior games. It’s an interesting coincidence that the Bills have lost both games they faced Diggs. Will Allen take all that energy and harness it effectively? We’ll find out in a few hours what’s what!
