Sitting here eating leftover Halloween candy, I’m at a loss.
Contextualizing Michigan’s 28-21 win over Rutgers is proving more difficult than explaining the appeal of candy corn. “Well, it’s crunchy, more so waxy, but still chewy, and it tastes like being picked on at recess.” In a sense, winning is winning, and Michigan showed cultural resolve fighting to victory without the carrot of a Big Ten title or College Football Playoff berth dangling in front of them.
It’s also Rutgers — two-win, lowly Rutgers.
Why was this game close? Teetering between conflicting sentiments, I think Michigan is simply the epitome of the entire college football season, which is shaping up to be the wildest since 2007.
2007 is the gold standard for chaos in a sport predicated on chaos. By the numbers:
- A ranked team lost to a lower ranked or unranked opponent 62 times during the regular season
- Top-10 teams lost 29 times
- The No. 1 team lost four times
- The No. 2 team lost seven times, all in the final nine weeks of the season
- The No. 1 and No. 2 teams lost in the same week three teams, including in Weeks 13 and 14
- Multiple top-10 teams lost in the same week in nine of the 14 weeks of the regular season, including five top-10 losses in Week 5
- LSU, the eventual national champion, lost twice as the No. 1 team, in Week 7 to Kentucky and Week 13 to Arkansas
- Michigan lost in the season opener to…you remember.
This season, a top-two team has now lost four consecutive weeks and the sports transitive property has never been shattered to this degree. Minnesota beats Michigan and Iowa, and takes Indiana to overtime. The Gophers also sandwiched in a 41-13 loss to Purdue. BYU beats Notre Dame one week and then loses to UCF the next. The Fighting Scott Frosts follow that victory up by welcoming Baylor — which just fired its head coach — to the Bounce House and proceeded to be deflated by 32.
USC bullied Ohio State on Saturday night and delivered the biggest win of head coach Lincoln Riley’s underwhelming tenure there, 30-18. It was the largest defeat for the Buckeyes since Jim Knowles was unable to come up with a stop in the 2022 Michigan game. But last week, Riley was almost out of the job. USC was dominated 24-7 by Wisconsin, the lowest-scoring game and the lowest point of Riley’s tenure at USC. Wisconsin followed up that performance by losing 30-0 to Iowa last week.
College football has changed more week to week than pre-election polling. Just when you think you understand a particular team, inexplicably, the trend is flipped on its head. Michigan, in particular, has proven to be Jekyll & Hyde, not only week to week, but series to series at times.
The Wolverines are capable of winning and losing against any team in the country. Michigan is one penalty, interception and field goal away from being a top-five team in the country. Seriously. But Michigan is also a bonus second away from having one of the five worst losses in program history. Whenever the defense is suffocating, the offense struggles to move the ball 10 yards. When the offense is rolling — which is RARE — the defense gives up the big play. When both have some juice, special teams allows a kick return touchdown or a field goal is shanked into Section 18.
Against Rutgers, offensive coordinator Jason Beck proved he got the memo from fans, pundits and Kyle Whittingham alike after the vapid performance against Indiana. The offense put up more than 400 yards (266 through the air and 161 on the ground), committed zero turnovers, and scored 28 points on Rutgers — a season-high against a Power 4 opponent.
Moreover, Tommy Carr was fantastic. Yes, it was Rutgers, but this is a true freshman in his second career start playing behind a colander offensive line without the assurance of an impenetrable defense. Carr finished 22-of-27 — a Michigan freshman record 81.5 completion percentage — for 266 yards, one touchdown, no turnovers and two rushing touchdowns. It was the first three-touchdown, zero-turnover performance by a Michigan quarterback since J.J. McCarthy in the 2024 Rose Bowl.
However, here’s the issue with the offense.
Similar to the Iowa game where Michigan put up more than 400 yards of offense, yet only scored 19 points, there are too many empty calories weighing down Beck’s scheme. Against Rutgers, Michigan was balanced in its attack, 12-of-16 on third downs, and possessed the ball for nearly 40 minutes. Even the inept 50/50 option plays were largely eradicated. How did this team not score 40 points at least? Sure, kicker Trey Butkowski reaffirmed the origin of the prefix of his last name with two missed kicks and four misses in his last six. But 30 points should have been the bare minimum with this amount of offensive production.
Defensively, it was the classic 90/10 performance. For 90 percent of the game, Michigan looked like the ‘01 Ravens with heavy pressure and overwhelming physicality. Defensive coordinator Jay Hill respects Pauly Shore movies more than this Rutgers attack. The other 10 percent of the time, it was a comedy of errors that would have paired nicely with Benny Hill music as the Wolverines allowed more points to a team that only completed three passes than any opponent all season.
Michigan games against Rutgers have been weird this entire decade. In 2021, the Wolverines needed a final-possession forced fumble to cling to a one-touchdown victory — a game in which they were out-gained 352-275. The following year, the Wolverines trailed 17-14 at the half before exploding with a 28-point third quarter. Even in 2023, Rutgers took an early 7-0 lead on a 69-yard pass play and kept things interesting into the third quarter. Why should the 2026, the weirdest season of them all, be any different?
Here are a few examples of the good, bad and everything in between from Saturday. Let’s start with the bad.
11-Personnel Duo
When is it offensive line coach Jim Harding’s turn? There are “Fire Beck” signs showing up at away games and Whittingham has taken any leftover shrapnel, but Harding’s unit specifically has regressed more than any on this team. I imagine him sitting in meetings like Homelander, watching everyone else get blamed for his group’s failures.
Since taking over, the line has been inconsistent at best and incompetent at worst. On the opening drive of the second half, Beck draws up a bread-and-butter play this unit has been comfortably running for years — Duo. If you asked me any time between 2022 and now for one run play I felt 100 percent confident in, it’s Duo. For those of you who are new here, Duo is a gap scheme run that is read by the running back using zone principles. Often referred to as “Power with the puller,” Duo can be hard to differentiate from inside zone, except that the double teams work vertically.
Film God Ted Nguyen of The Athletic wrote, “I believe it’s an effective play because it’s a gap scheme concept that allows blockers to fire off the ball and execute physical double teams, while the threat of the ball being able to attack anywhere on the line of scrimmage keeps linebackers subdued for a second.” A description of the quintessential Michigan play.
Beck even ditches the Rhino and utilizes 11-personnel to lighten the box and create space. This is a perfect 2nd-and-6 call. At the snap, wide receiver JJ Buchanan comes in motion to add a little eye candy and this movement alone draws the attention of multiple Scarlet Knights. There’s only one problem, though…NOT. ONE. SINGLE. LINEMAN. WINS.
Center Jake Guarnera and right guard Brady Norton together cannot displace the three-tech, right tackle Blake Frazier is stood up behind the line of scrimmage, left tackle Evan Link just holds on as his man drags him into the play, and left guard Nate Efobi gets dog-walked down the line of scrimmage. It’s easy to yell “Run the ball between the tackles!” from the couch, but when the offensive line can’t clear out a five-man box against the worst run defense in the Big Ten, the blame shifts to the execution. And/or the person in charge of helping the group execute.
How can a play like this happen this far into the season?
At first glance, it looks like Efobi should be traded to Eastern Michigan for a box of Slim Jims. But watch it more closely. Guarnera prematurely snaps the ball before the quarterback’s hand clap. Everyone is caught off guard and the defensive tackle flies through the line and blows up the play. This was a designed split zone that had a great chance of hitting if the ball is simply snapped when it’s supposed to be snapped. Grant Newsome may have taught the boys to pass protect like a TSA pat down, but they got movement in the run game. Harding needs a large slice of the blame pie for the offense’s struggles.
Like Jim Harbaugh said, “The offensive line to me is important. If I asked you the question, what position group depends on no other position group to be good, but every other position group depends on them to be good — what position group is that? Offensive line. They’re not relying on any other position group to be good, but yet every other position group relies on the offensive line to be good.”
But it wasn’t all bad. The offense scored on the opening drive of the game for the first time since Western Michigan and showed potency in the passing game. Take this, for example.
11-Personnel Y-Cross
Once again it’s 11-personnel — noticing a theme here — but tight end Mason Bonner is detached in the slot in a 2×2 look on 2nd-and-10. Both split ends clear out space with Go-routes, Bonner (near slot) is going to work a 15-yard Over route and settle down into the soft zone, and Buchanan (far slot) is going to run a Hitch route underneath to create more space. But the star of this play is the offensive line.
Rutgers runs a T-T stunt with the nearside defensive tackle crashing over to work the B gap and the far-side defensive tackle looping all the way over to attack the near-side C gap. Guarnera passes off the crasher flawlessly to Efobi, who has no problem staying connected. Guarnera then re-engages for a double team with Norton. Frazier does a fantastic job working the double team with Norton before the looper emerges and once he shows, Frazier rides him out of the play to create a pocket big enough for Carr to lie down and take a nap.
Carr wants to take a shot to wide receiver Channing Goodwin (far-side split end), who is a hot route option, but he sees the Cover 2 safety cheating over. The pump fake moves the safety just enough, Carr resets his feet and connects with Bonner for a big gain. Before moving on, watch the nasty route running by Buchanan. It’s designed to be a five-yard Hitch, so he runs 10 yards, slams on the brakes, and then works back inside against leverage as the helpless defender falls down. Good job all around on this play!
Michigan’s offense took strides on Saturday, but it still feels too little, too late for Beck. We will spread some blame to Harding and the offensive line, but this is his offense at the end of the day. Even when Beck is good, it still looks hard. The empty-calorie-stat padding that isn’t reflected on the scoreboard is the antithesis of a Michigan offense. In 2023, Michigan was ranked 69th in total offense and 14th in scoring offense. The only number that matters is the score and Beck hasn’t hit 30 against a Power 4 team two-thirds through the season. He isn’t coaching for his job this week, he’s coaching for his next job.
Jay Hill is also coaching for his next job. But that might be a head coaching position of his choosing. Let’s start with the good.
3-3-5; Cover 1 Robber Nickel Blitz
Somewhere, Jesse Minter is smiling. God knows he needs it after the Lamar Jackson news. The nickel blitz was Minter’s favorite play call during his time at Michigan. And when you have a player like Mike Sainristil working the pressure, who can blame him for spamming it? Facing a 3rd-and-8, Hill dipped into the past for this beautifully designed blitz.
Across the front, near to far, are Chase Taylor, Benny Patterson, Enow Etta, and Lugard Edokpayi Jr. When the ball is snapped, Taylor is going to take the long way on his rush to widen the left tackle and open up space in the B gap. Simultaneously, Patterson is going to work across the face of the guard into the A gap to further widen the B gap and Etta is going to set the edge. Here’s where the magic happens.
Smith Snowden is going to go first shooting the B gap. He is going to fake to the inside of the rush lane before jumping to the outside into the running back in pass pro. In basketball terms, he’s setting a pick. This vacates the inner alley of the B gap and clears Troy Bowles for blast-off.
The quarterback looks to deliver a throw, but small forward Edokpayi has dropped into coverage as a robber! Looking to evade, the quarterback steps up and is brought down by a pack of Wolverines, including Snowden, who instinctively works back around to the only possible lane. From schematics to execution, this play was flawless. But two veterans working the nuance of a pass rush is one thing. The development of the pups is what gets me really excited about this defense.
3-3-5; Cover 2 Man
Tariq Boney is playing as well as any true freshman edge rusher in the history of Michigan football. But it’s not just physicality and effort — his technique and processing are those of a fifth-year senior. On this 2nd-and-10, Boney recognizes it’s a zone read, chops his feet, sits and forces the give to the back. Also, note that Taylor is scraping over the top to set the edge behind Boney should the edge fly into the backfield.
Despite the benefit of numbers to that side, Patterson visibly knocks the tackle off his track, beats the guard coming to help, and grabs the running back in the backfield. Just for good measure, Boney tracks the play from the backside to help Patterson finish the tackle. All three players highlighted are teenagers. As great as the performance was, there were some rare missteps.
4-2-5; Cover Zero Blitz
Hill was not afraid to bring the heat of a thousand suns despite being burnt by the longest touchdown reception by a Rutgers player in 12 years. There was nothing schematically wrong with that play — Snowden just fell down. It doesn’t take Bill Belichick to break that one down. But Hill wasn’t deterred.
The aggression was only amplified in the second half and resulted in the second straight game in which the defense did not allow a single reception in the final two quarters. But just like the first half, Michigan got burned by one uncharacteristic explosive play.
On 3rd-and-4, the defense was eager to get off the field with its fourth consecutive three-and-out. Hill dials up a Cover Zero run blitz and aligns his chess pieces perfectly. Michigan overloads into the boundary with Chris Bracy, Patterson, Jonah Lea’ea, Etta and Nathaniel Staehling all aligned from the center over. Boney and Taylor cover the field side.
At the snap, Bracy is going to guard against the mesh, Patterson is going to blow up the puller, Lea’ea is going to twist, Staehling is going to fire through the B gap, and Etta is going straight through a MFer’s face. The only issue is it works a little too well.
Staehling flies through the line, but is unintentionally blown up by the destruction of Patterson’s hit on the puller. Bracy is playing the mesh and guesses wrong on the handoff, creating a lane to the inside. Mason Curtis comes in last for support, but he over-pursues, parting the seas for the running back to take off. Credit to Zeke Berry here for the chase down, as this is an incredible effort. In the future, you’ll probably see Bracy just explode on the ball carrier and leave the quarterback for Curtis. If the quarterback pulls, it’ll take longer for him to get to the edge with a wider angle, making it easier for Curtis to seek-and-destroy at full speed.
With so much noise around the Michigan coaching staff, I am reminded of the succession anecdote from Traffic. When Nikita Khrushchev was forced out as leader of the Soviet Union, he sat down and wrote two letters to his successor, Leonid Brezhnev. He wrote, “When you get yourself into a situation you can’t get out of, open the first letter, and you’ll be safe. When you get yourself into another situation you can’t get out of, open the second letter.”
Brezhnev soon found himself in a difficult situation, so he opened the first letter. It said, “Blame everything on me.” So he blamed Khrushchev for everything, and it worked. Eventually, he got himself into a second difficult situation he couldn’t get out of, so he opened the second letter. It said, “Sit down, and write two letters.”
With Michigan State up next, the only thing to expect is the unexpected. College football at large has taught us that this season. But this game carries extra weight for everyone involved. Especially those at the top. Make no mistake about it: Michigan State is a must-win. A win here gives the Wolverines bowl eligibility, a huge rivalry victory, and momentum heading into the final three games of the season, with a chance to ruin Ohio State’s season. A loss would unravel everything around this program and sow seeds of doubt in even the most steadfast, ardent supporters.
If Michigan loses to Michigan State, someone is going to have to sit down and write two letters.
