Well, that one went completely according to the Brewers script. The Cubs hit three homers. The Brewers were not fazed. They had no homers. Or even triples. They did have 13 hits and drew five walks. They turned that into nine runs and coasted to an easy win. Neither team saw any of their “A” relievers hit the field. This game was completely the antithesis of the previous series with the Padres. Allow me to state the obvious: The Cubs are much better styled to play the way those games went than this
one.
I have a friend down here in Florida who I bowl with on Fridays who is a Brewers fan. I said to him Friday night that I hoped it would be a close, hard fought series. I can’t see the Cubs blowing the Brewers out. They are just too fundamentally sound. I thought the Cubs might be able to win a close series. If it gets lopsided, I thought the Cubs would be overmatched.
Like so many of you, I thought it was a mistake to start Matthew Boyd in this game. The historic numbers of pitchers on three days rest during the Wild Card era have been terrible. I’m not half the student of postseason ball that I am of regular season ball. But my perception is that if a guy is going to throw on three days rest, it’s generally an elite pitcher. I love Matthew Boyd and everything he did for this team this year. He’s not elite.
Go further though. The only reason to have a pitcher throw on three days rest is to gain something you don’t already have. Let’s assume for a second that you believe that it is crucial to have Boyd start twice in the series. By starting Game 1 on Saturday, Wednesday is the third day of rest. Thursday is the fourth day of rest. So either you bring him back again on three days of rest, or he pitches in Game 5 on Saturday. Alternatively, he could throw in Game 2 on Monday. Off Tuesday-Friday. Then he would start Game 5 on four days rest.
So you didn’t gain anything. In the old school seven game series, with two days off, if you had a pitcher throw on three days rest for Game 3, you could bring him back to make three starts. That is potentially gaining something. This strategy did not. And it screams of desperation and that you don’t believe in the other guys. Of course, you all know that I’ve been a supporter of Colin Rea all year long. I’d have handed the ball to Rea and had no second thoughts.
Might Rea have been ambushed anyway? Maybe. The Cubs have no starters who are going to blow away an excellent offensive team like the Brewers. Start Rea, mix and match and get through it. Then Boyd gets Game 2. Now it sounds like Shōta Imanaga gets Game 2. Hopefully he finds his “A” game. Personally, I’d have wanted him in Chicago where he might benefit from the wind blowing in. He’s been crushed by the long ball all year long. I don’t love handing the Brewers a weapon that isn’t regularly in their arsenal.
Hey, my phone has never rang and I suspect no one is ever going to hire me to a coach a team. I’m just a guy with a keyboard. I don’t have to manage personalities or egos. I know Boyd surely felt he was ready for this start. But he just wasn’t sharp. That’s an all too foreseeable result for any pitcher on short rest. Hey, it’s not like you were at best probably 45 percent to win the series. Punting a game was a totally reasonable choice.
It’s meant to be difficult for the Wild Cards to advance a second time. The three Wild Cards that won first round games were 1-2 Saturday and the two losses were both lopsided. The Tigers were the exception. They took the Mariners to extra innings and won. Do you know what they didn’t do? Tarik Skubal, in the team photo for best pitcher on the planet, didn’t throw on short rest. He’ll throw Game 2 on Sunday and give the Tigers a real good shot at starting out on the road with a pair of wins. Max Fried, of the Yankees, also gets Game 2. To be fair, it’s a different scenario with the two AL teams starting with back-to-back games and a much more ordinary schedule.
We’re going to turbo through the rest of this, because there just isn’t a whole lot to see here.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 166, 42 BF (8 IP)
- Brewers: 148, 36 BF
The Cubs are in the disaster zone at 20.75 PPI. Once you go above 20, you can pretty much assume disaster. Obviously that was the case here. The Brewers get in at 16.44 which is the “yellow zone.” This is where the game starts going bad. They get a little giveback in that one of the reasons they are there is because they struck out 12. Running up pitch counts by striking out a ton can work, but it isn’t really a repeatable strategy. The Cubs had six hits and drew three walks. Obviously, the Cubs hit three homers. Otherwise, that output isn’t often going to produce three runs.
Neither team used any of their leverage relievers. Aaron Civale surely won’t be seen before the series moves to Chicago. But then, he’s kind of a break glass in case of emergency guy. It is unclear if Ben Brown or Michael Soroka will be good one one day of rest after throwing 43 and 38 pitches each. Boyd actually threw the least pitches at 30. I guess you go ahead and use Boyd for Game 4. Hopefully you can get there.
Star Performances:
- Aaron Civale pulled this game out of the dumpster. If they hadn’t gotten that length, might they have had to consider a position player in a playoff game? He got 13 outs, three of them strikeouts. He allowed three hits.
- Ben Brown gave them two innings. He did walk two and allow a hit. There just wasn’t much positive. He did strike out three.
- Matt Shaw had a pair of walks.
I have no quibbles with anyone who suggests there were no stars.
Postseason Game 4: Brewers 9, Cubs 3 (2-2)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Michael Busch (.087). 1-4, HR, RBI, R
- Hero: Matt Shaw (.009). 0-1, 2 BB
- Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.002). 1-4
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Matthew Boyd (-.365). 0.2 IP, 8 BF, 4 H, BB, 6 R (2 ER), K (L 0-1)
- Goat: Mike Soroka (-.135). IP, 10 BF, 5 H, 2 BB, 3 ER, K
- Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.023). 1-4, HR, RBI, R
WPA Play of the Game: Brice Turang’s double with no outs in the first to tie the game. (.100)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Michael Busch’s homer leading off the game (.099)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Previous Winner: Dansby Swanson 170-141 over Jameson Taillon (396 total votes).
H&G Top/Bottom:
- Andrew Kittredge +4
- 4 Players +3
- Matthew Boyd/Brad Keller -3
- Ian Happ -6
Up Next: Game 2 is very late Monday night. Neither team has officially announced a starter as of the time of this post. Expect plenty more coverage here at BCB ahead of the game.
