It’s come down to this, once again. For the third time in five seasons, the Braves’ first playoff opponent will be a Phillies team that they beat up on in the regular season and distanced themselves from in the standings. But, when you force two teams — any two teams — to play a short series with nothing but home field advantage given as an edge, none of that really matters. Advancing means winning two of three, not being the better team. It is what it is.
The plus side, for the Braves and for us,
is that the Braves will finally, barring some last-minute Wile E. Coyote shenanigans, get to deploy Chris Sale in a playoff game. Sale is third in fWAR among pitchers since the Braves acquired him, with at least 80 fewer completed innings over three seasons than the the two guys ahead of him, but was unavailable due to injury at the end of the 2024 season, and the less said about 2025, the better. The veteran left-hander ranks fourth in fWAR on the season — among full-time hurlers he’s third in ERA- (51), second in FIP- (55), and third in xFIP- (67). Basically, he’s fourth and not higher because of the Braves’ load management; he’d likely be second with about 12 more innings and the same pitching success.
The other funny thing about Sale and this game is that at first through a quirk of the schedule, and then as deliberately engineered by the Braves, he has faced the Phillies four times already this season. He was somewhere between good and dominant every time:
- April 18 in Philadelphia: 7/1 K/BB ratio, a solo homer allowed in seven innings, Braves win 3-1
- April 26 in Atlanta: 9/2 K/BB ratio, one hit and no runs by the Phillies over the six frames that he pitched, Braves win 6-2
- September 4 in Philadelphia: 7/1 K/BB ratio, Phillies score on an Alec Bohm double and solo homer, Sale goes six, Braves win 5-2
- September 11 in Atlanta: 6/2 K/BB ratio in seven innings, Phillies plate three on Derek Hill’s bases-loaded double in the second, Braves win 6-5 in one of the wildest comebacks of the year.
So, the Braves have little reason for consternation as far as this matchup goes. Though ZiPS sees the series as as much of a toss-up as possible, it gives the Braves about a 60 percent chance of winning this game. The FanGraphs game-by-game methodology is similar, at 58 percent.
I read a thing a while ago that the postseason impact on pitchers’ stats is largely driven by homers rather than anything else, despite the cooler autumn weather. Sale is basically the perfect example of this:
- Career, regular season: 69/68/71, 30.8% K%, 5.7% BB%, 36.2% FB%, 11.1% HR/FB%
- Career, postseason: 140/103/81, 30.9% KB%, 8.6% BB%, 38.2% FB%, 20.6% HR/FB%
Yeah, the walk rate is a little higher, but… the big difference is homers. Not really more fly balls, just more… homers. So long as he doesn’t get tagged for a longball or two, the Braves should theoretically be fine… except that anything can happen in a single game, hence the odds of winning of no more than 60 percent.
You’ll notice I haven’t said much about the Phillies at this point. That’s by design because I don’t have much to say. The Phillies barely clinched a playoff spot. They finished the season 28th in wRC+ — I’m not sure if that’s a new record for lowest rank / worst wRC+ to make the playoffs. They were actually in the top half in xwOBA, though. Their team is all about their pitching, but it’s hard to give an effective pitching preview because of how they shuffled their rotation to finally clinch a spot on the season’s last day.
On paper, the Phillies are starting Jesus Luzardo, who ranks right behind Sale with 5.5 fWAR to Sale’s 5.8. Luzardo is really good (66/64/70), and ate the Braves alive with a complete game shutout in Philadelphia in September. But, he then went on the shelf with shoulder woes, and recovered to throw a quick inning in Sunday’s clinch game. How many innings will he go? Is this a normal start or a specific limited outing to get the Phillies on the right foot to begin the game? We have no idea. Andrew Painter (125/108/101) could follow a bulk guy on normal rest… or not. The Braves will probably make things easier for themselves if they can force a Luzardo removal, but given the way this offense has performed over the arc of the year, I’m not holding out hope for anything in particular.
Anyway, playoff baseball. At 2:00 pm ET, for some reason. Something will happen, and people will probably overreact to it. That’s how it goes.
Game Info, NL Wild Card Round Game 1
Game Date/Time: Tuesday, September 29, 2:00 p.m. EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV/Streaming: NBC, Peacock (this is your reminder that as much as MLB loves national TV money, it doesn’t actually want you to watch these games)
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM
