Who’s ready for some New York Jets football!? I’m not the only one who believes this week is the true test that will help us finally gain an accurate sense of what to expect this season. The young Titans in a new system? Too unproven. The Packers in the rain? Too uncommon. The Detroit Lions, a dome, and one of the few teams with an unmistakable identity for the past few seasons? Perfect!
The best part of this game is that we know what the Lions are. We know how good their players are, how successful
their coach has been, and that this team will be playing competitive football in January. To see Aaron Glenn’s Jets beat this team would be indisputable proof that the Jets are on the rise. Even the strongest of Aaron Glenn haters would have to give him his flowers.
Now, of course, the Lions have allowed 30+ points in both games played this season, but it’s weird. They were up 21-0 against the Saints before Tyler Shough saved my fantasy team and led the Saints to a much more respectable 31-30 final score. Then they were down 21-0 against the Bills before coming back (not as closely as Shough did) and finishing 41-31.
My immediate thought is: how many points can the Jets score against the Lions? How would the Jets respond to being down 14-0, let alone 21-0? With all the offensive weapons on the team, a healthy, cohesive offensive line, and a “gunslinger” at QB, I think we all expected a huge step for the offense this year. 20 points per game is undoubtedly a nice step up from 17.6 last year, but still in the bottom half of the NFL. Aaron Glenn’s Jets have scored 30 points twice (including his head-coaching debut), and it seems they’ll need to cross that threshold to have any chance of beating a team that scored 31 apiece in Weeks 1 and 2.
Loose Ends
When Frank Reich was hired as the New York Jets’ offensive coordinator, I was excited to see how he’d elevate sophomore tight end Mason Taylor’s production. A couple of months later, the Jets drafted Oregon sensation Kenyon Sadiq with the 16th overall pick and completely lifted the ceiling of this offense. Now he has a 6’5” big body with steady hands, and a 6’3” 240-pound unicorn with 4.39 speed and a developed route tree.
Fast forward to this Sunday, and Mason Taylor has been ruled out. Kenyon Sadiq has looked fantastic every time he’s touched the ball, but the problem is he’s touched it only six times in two games. He caught all three of his targets in Week 1 and ran for a TD on his only carry of the game. He had two catches in Week 2, and after one, he hurdled smoothly over a leaping Packers defender. Let’s see how that compares to the other tight ends drafted in the first round recently:
It should be noted that McBride was behind Zach Ertz (14 targets in the first 2 games) on the depth chart, and Colston Loveland was behind Cole Kmet (3 targets in the first 2 games). While Mason Taylor (3 targets in the first two games) has a role, Sadiq is by far the most talented player in the Jets TE room. How glorious would it be to see him get a target count like Kyle Pitts, Brock Bowers, or Tyler Warren? Tyler Warren is especially interesting because he’s the only other player on the chart to have at least one carry in his first two games.
Everywhere Frank Reich has gone, tight ends have been a valuable part of the offense, but we have yet to see that develop for the Jets. Perhaps this is the week to get it on track, even without Taylor, since the Lions allowed three catches, 51 yards, and a touchdown to Juwan Johnson to start the year. This past week, those same Lions allowed seven catches, 95 yards, and 1 touchdown to Dalton Kincaid.
This is one of those perfect storms where everything should be coming together this week for Kenyon Sadiq to have a much bigger impact on the outcome of this game. Frank Reich’s offense, Mason Taylor’s injury, and Detroit’s leaky defense against opposing tight ends. Will this storm result in raining Sadiq yards and another touchdown?
Highly Offensive
Jared Goff is currently in the midst of the third-longest active streak of passes without throwing an interception in NFL history. Jahmyr Gibbs is the most popular pick for best running back, while Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown also command respect as elite players in their respective positions. They were the 4th-highest-scoring team per game last year and are in the same spot this year.
There’s been a lot of fanfare in the Jets community about having the “league’s top defense,” but I’m here to (regretfully) inform you that stat is misleading. They have allowed the fewest yards, yes, against the league’s second-worst offense full of rookies, and a descending team that was significantly hampered by the rain. I’ve been loving the Jets’ tackling and their overall run defense, but even that may be a mirage when you consider Marshawn Lloyd was starting in his second-ever game and the lowly Titans averaged 4.9 yards per carry.
Stopping Detroit will be no easy feat, but the Bills laid out a nice blueprint the Jets could potentially follow. Detroit is built to play with a lead – they have an elite running back and one of the game’s most accurate and composed pocket passers to manage the game. When their run game is flowing, play action opens up the pass game, and they completely dominate the game.
Playing from behind is a completely different story for them – they’re forced to throw more, and Goff is forced to take more chances instead of relying on his running backs. This year specifically, the Lions offensive line has declined, so in obvious passing situations they’re less capable of protecting Goff than in previous years. As soon as the Bills scored their opening-drive touchdown, they forced a three-and-out and scored another touchdown. By the time Detroit found any rhythm, the game was already long over, and the Bills kept scoring.
The Jets’ best hope is to draw first blood and put the Lions in obvious passing situations so David Bailey and Will McDonald can go to work. Only seven teams in the NFL have more sacks per game than the Jets, and the Jets can climb even higher up the ranks due to Jared Goff’s lack of speed. He’s coming off a game where he was sacked four times, like Jordan Love was when the Jets came in, sacked him three times, and forced a fumble.
In this case, offense will certainly be the best form of defense. The more Jared is kept on the sideline, the better. The more they have to throw and abandon the run, the better. If you’re excited about the Jets’ yardage and points-allowed numbers, please let me know in the comments how you think they’ll fare against a team averaging 31 points and 362 yards per game.
Chess, Not Checkers
My biggest criticism of Aaron Glenn is that he has struggled mightily at the little things that give his team an advantage. Time management, complementary play-calling, and situational decision-making all play a huge role in game outcomes. This isn’t a common skill set – no Jets coach of the last decade succeeded in this area, but it seems like Glenn is especially bad.
What makes that interesting is that his former head coach, Dan Campbell, also isn’t that good at it. Dan is super aggressive to a fault and has seen his seasons end because of his reckless, risky decisions. It’s almost as if Aaron Glenn has overcompensated for that as a Head Coach and is now overly cautious and afraid to act when actions need to be taken (such as calling a timeout with one minute left).
I don’t have any fancy stats for this one – this is simply which coach can outsmart the other. Matt LaFleur had Aaron Glenn looking like an amateur – are we about to see another amateur hour? With Glenn knowing Campbell’s philosophy and all of his tendencies, can he bait Campbell into making a situational decision that hurts the Lions? Can he use Campbell’s aggressiveness against him and set a trap he falls into? Pay attention to time-out usage, play calling, and how each half ends. Of course, if it’s a blowout, this won’t matter as much but I’m expecting these talented Jets to put up a fight.
