Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight standouts Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim will collide TONIGHT (Sat., June 6, 2026) inside Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 118.
After five years without a loss, Muhammad is suddenly riding a two-fight losing streak. Both defeats were competitive and opposite top-notch competition, but the question now must be asked: is the 37-year-old “Bully” past his best? Has he been figured out by the up-and-coming wave of 170-pound talent? Helping
us answer that question is Bonfim, who has risen into the rankings on the strength of a four-fight win streak. The 28-year-old Brazilian is looking to shift from prospect to contender, and what better way to do so than dispatch a fairly recent champion?
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Muhammad vs. Bonfim Betting Odds
- Belal Muhammad victory: -118
- Belal Muhammad via TKO/KO/DQ: +650
- Belal Muhammad via submission: +850
- Belal Muhammad via decision: +180
- Gabriel Bonfim victory: -104
- Gabriel Bonfim via TKO/KO/DQ: +400
- Gabriel Bonfim via submission: +450
- Gabriel Bonfim via decision: +490
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Muhammad Wins
Belal Muhammad is a chameleon. A well-rounded and tactical veteran, Muhammad has won fights with relentless pressure and dedicated evasive movement alike. That’s only possible because he’s skilled everywhere, capable of flipping up his approach to suit his opposition.
Against Bonfim, pressure is very obviously the better tactic. Muhammad doesn’t want to stand at long range with the Brazilian and trade kicks — he was just outpointed in such a fight by Ian Garry. Instead, Muhammad has to get in Bonfim’s face just like he did versus Leon Edwards and Sean Brady, keeping continual pressure to fatigue his opponent.
We have seen Bonfim gas out and collapse previously in his sole UFC loss to Nicholas Dalby. More recently, he started strong and faded in the second half of his controversial win over Stephen Thompson. Pace is one of Muhammad’s great weapons, and he can implement it by boxing his way into takedowns and continually forcing Bonfim to work hard.
“The Bully” has five rounds to break his opponent.
How Bonfim Wins
Bonfim is an undeniable talent. He’s remarkably slick on the canvas, a legit BJJ black belt with 13 wins via tapout. He’s also a powerful kicker with a sharp jab, and his recent dissection of Randy Brown was a very impressive display of improved striking.
Bonfim wins this fight, like most others, on the canvas. The problem with that strategy is Muhammad is generally a very difficult man to drag to the floor. If Bonfim sprints into takedowns out of the gate, he may succeed in grounding Muhammad for a bit, but the effort will definitely drain him.
To defeat Muhammad, Bonfim really has to put it all together and demonstrate an improved gas tank. At distance, Bonfim will have to stick-and-move, walking Muhammad into jabs and doing attritional damage with his kicks. When Muhammad overextends, that’s when Bonfim can time his takedowns, expend less energy, and hopefully lock down some dominant positions.
It would be quite the feather in Bonfim’s cap were he to become the first man to submit Belal Muhammad.
Muhammad vs. Bonfim Prediction
The style match up strongly favors Muhammad here. He’s about as hard-nosed and gritty as they come, more than capable of enduring some early adversity to work his way back into the fight and take over as fatigue sets in. The only real concern is the age difference. Muhammad has been in some wars and is getting up there, so it’s reasonable to assume he’ll get smoked by some youngster in the not-too-distant future.
I don’t know that Bonfim is the guy though. He’s not an otherworldly hitter, and Muhammad still seems too sharp to give up his neck in the first round. Likely, Bonfim’s combination of youth and dynamic grappling allow him to take the opening round, but Muhammad pays him back before too long.
