We are more than a quarter of the way through Big Ten conference play, and five teams have separated themselves as legitimate regular-season title contenders. Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Illinois all have zero or one loss in league play and will be battling to be crowned champion.
Illinois won a share of the Big Ten regular-season title in the 2021-22 season, which remains the program’s only regular-season championship since the historic 2004–05 Final Four team. The Illini are currently
6-1 in conference play and have positioned themselves firmly in the mix for a second regular-season title under Brad Underwood.
Illinois finished 15-5 in league play during that championship season, but it will likely take at least 16 wins to sit atop the standings on March 8. The Big Ten is very top-heavy this year, and it will probably require 16 or even 17 conference wins to claim the title.
Last season, Michigan State won the league at 17-3, and Purdue did the same during the 2023-24 season. KenPom currently projects Purdue, Michigan, and Nebraska to finish 16-4, with Illinois and Michigan State slightly behind at 15-5.
According to Bart Torvik, Illinois currently has a 22.1% chance to win a share of the regular-season title. Michigan is the favorite at 39%, followed by Nebraska at 34.6% and Purdue at 32.7%. Michigan State has just one conference loss but sits at only a 12% chance to win the league.
These five teams are clearly the top tier in the conference and will also be competing for a top four finish and a coveted double bye in the Big Ten Tournament. Teams earning a double bye will not have to play until Friday in Chicago. Per Bart Torvik, Illinois has an 82.6% chance to finish in the top four, ahead of Michigan State, which has the fifth-best odds at 68.6%.
The Big Ten plays a 20-game conference schedule with an unbalanced format due to the addition of the West Coast teams and the league expanding to 18 total programs. As a result, the remaining matchups among these five contenders will play a major role in determining the eventual champion. Below is the remaining schedule between the top five teams:
Nebraska (7–0)
• at Michigan
• Illinois
• Purdue
Purdue (7–0)
• Illinois
• at Nebraska
• Michigan
• Michigan State
Michigan (6–1)
• Nebraska
• at Michigan State
• at Purdue
• at Illinois
• Michigan State
Illinois (6–1)
• at Purdue
• at Nebraska
• at Michigan State
• Michigan
Michigan State (6–1)
• Michigan
• Illinois
• at Purdue
• at Michigan
As you can see, not every schedule is evenly balanced down the stretch. Illinois will play three road games against the top five, while Purdue will host three of those matchups at home. Michigan may be the favorite to win the league, but it also has the most remaining games against top five opponents.
