UNC football loves variance. 11-3 one year, 3-9 two years later. Mitch Trubisky (he was awesome in college, y’all), then Nathan Elliott. Drake Maye, then Gio Lopez. Every UNC football season should start
with Forrest Gump sitting on a park bench, reminding us, “…Mama always said life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.”
Watching UNC slowly fall further and further behind a decent UCF team stirred some bad memories. I remembered an offense that would make just enough plays to let you know they could but then string together a series of flops to let you know they wouldn’t. I replayed in my mind a defense that just tried to hold on, forced to defend too many plays and too many short fields. That season dropped a 3-9 season result on our heads from what felt like out of nowhere. As the UCF game wore on, I kept asking myself, “Is this team 2017 all over again?”
2017 came on the heels of an 8-5 effort in 2016 and a high-water mark of 11-3 in 2015. We had a new QB named Chazz Surratt that excited everyone. I’d watched Chazz and his brother in a high school basketball playoff game drop 42 points in the first quarter on my son’s team. The athletic ability was obvious. The defense had some known nice pieces: Cole Holcomb, MJ Stewart, Jason Strowbridge. Optimism seemed warranted.
You could see that potential in the first few games. We opened with a close, frustrating loss to California at home, 30-35. “Ok,” we thought, “we can build on that, eliminate some of those mistakes. Chazz will get better every game.” We then hosted Louisville, with some guy named Lamar Jackson at QB, and lost a shoot out 35-47. We regrouped against Old Dominion to the tune of 53-23. Then, the bottom fell out. We lost six straight before hilariously upending Pittsburgh at their place 34-31. Western Carolina provided another W before a perfunctory loss to State capped the season.
I perhaps can guess what you’re thinking. “That 2017 team was competitive against a Lamar Jackson Louisville squad. It had the ball late with a chance to beat #13 Miami. It wasn’t blown out in its opening games against power conference opponents.” And yes, you’d be right. I’m referencing 2017 because we never expected to be that bad that year. Just like we never expected to be this bad this year.
I reviewed some stats and unit rankings while watching the Patriots turn the ball over repeatedly against the Steelers last Sunday. I concede that maybe I’m not being fair to 2017.
Offense: 2017 (full season) vs 2025 (so far), national ranks:
Yards per play: 96th (5.32) vs 122nd (4.90)
Yards per game: 96th (370) vs 134th (263)
FEI (tempo and opponent adjusted): 86th vs 90th
SP+ (tempo and opponent adjusted): 58th vs 89th
Defense: 2017 (full season) vs 2025 (so far), national ranks:
FEI (tempo and opponent adjusted): 64th vs 81st
SP+ (tempo and opponent adjusted): 53rd vs 77th
So, there you have it. Four games into the season, 2025 (2-2) trails 2017 (3-9) on both sides of the ball.
We’ll see where the rest of the season takes us. The schedule in front of us features teams proven to be quite beatable. I’m just not confident in this year’s team to win any of those games. I am confident saying that Bill Belichick so far has fielded a team comparable what Fedora fielded in 2017 and 2018.
