The Prediction: Illinois Fighting Illini

The UWDP staff makes their picks for a pivotal game against #23 Illinois!

Summarized by AI ⓘ

What is the story about?

The time is almost upon us for a home showdown against a top 25 Illinois Fighting Illini team! Our staff has their predictions!

Andrew Berg (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS)

Washington has been a much better team at Husky Stadium than on the road throughout Jedd Fisch’s tenure. Even after getting the monkey off his back by beating WSU and Maryland to get his first road win and first Big 10 road win with the Huskies, there’s still a clear step up on overall quality when playing at home. That distinction can be the big difference between last week’s

disappointment at Michigan and a hopefully better result against Illinois. After all, UW, Michigan, Illinois, and Nebraska were tightly clustered from 25-28 in the AP Poll last week and the Dawgs need to reverse the result against a similarly accomplished team. To that end, Fisch is 7-3 ATS as a home team with Washington and 1-7 away (excluding FCS games). His Husky teams aren’t just better at home, they’re better by more than Vegas has adjusted for.

Setting the odds talk aside, the matchup on the field is interesting. Illinois has some broad stylistic similarities to Rutgers- both teams pass better and more often than their smash-mouth reputation, and both have been surprisingly bad defensively. The Illini offense has grown with Luke Altmyer. The third-year starter has improved year-over-year and is up to a very good 9.5 yards per attempt. The Huskies haven’t given up tons of big pass plays, but they have been picked apart on short and medium-range passes. They need to pressure Altmyer and make more plays in the secondary. On offense, the Huskies can feast on short passes and yards after the catch.

Most analytics suggest the Huskies should win a close game. I don’t expect a high score because both teams play relatively slowly and should have plenty of long drives. The Dawgs are so much better at home that I think the analytics might underrate how much they gain at the Greatest Setting. The home crowd will turn some red zone opportunities into Illinois FGs and help the Huskies convert for TDs.
Washington 28 – Illinois 23

Mark Schafer (5-2 SU, 1-6 ATS)

After a very tepid and uninspired performance on the road last week, the Huskies look to get right with an early afternoon home game. It’ll be a tough test, as they are taking on a surging Illinois team ranked #23 in the country. In many ways, Illinois represents a unique challenge for the Huskies to solve. Their quarterback, Luke Altmeyer, doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, having only thrown 1 pick on the year, over 1800 yards and 13 touchdowns. This is also a very pass heavy team, with receiver Hank Beatty hauling in 39 catches for 617 yards and 2 touchdowns. Their run game employs a by committee approach with multiple ways to hurt a defense, so this offense is no slouch. But their main weakness lies in the offensive line, as the Illini have struggled to prevent sacks, so to stop their red hot offense, the Huskies must keep contain, pressure Altmeyer relentlessly, and hopefully they can force him into making some mistakes or sack him a few times.
Offensively, it was a tough game last week. With the injuries on the line and to the blocking tight ends, it might be a tough game trying to run the ball, which means that Coach Fisch might have to get creative in order to get Jonah rolling again. Short screen passes may do the trick, but I think Demond is going to have to shoulder the load in the rushing department. This all supposes that Willis and Mills aren’t healthy enough to go, which, if they are, would be a welcome gift. Even if they are, there’s no guarantee they’ll be 100%, which means that Denzel Boston and Dezmen Roebuck will have to step up in a big way, something that they’ve shown they’re capable of doing. Overall, even with the issues with this Husky team, I still have faith that they’ll ultimately prevail, in a close shootout. Whether or not I am ultimately proven right, this is yet another one of those “barometer” games and the result of this one will go a long way in determining what kind of team this is.
Washington-35, Illinois-31

Max Vrooman (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS)

Coming off a loss to Michigan, this game feels like the swing point of the Husky season. A win and the Dawgs have a chance to at least nominally be in playoff contention going into the final week of the season. A loss would instead cap the ceiling at likely 8-4 and feel like a major disappointment even if it’s close to what expectations were for most in the preseason. The advanced stats view this as a fairly even matchup. Illinois is undefeated against and has scored at least 34 points against every team outside the AP Poll top 2. Although they’ve yet to win a game against a team with a defense ranked better than 50th in SP+. QB Luke Altmyer has been improved with an impressive receiver corps but has been sacked on nearly 30% of his pressures with fewer than 1 Big-Time Throw (per PFF) per game. He’s not going to beat you downfield in tight windows and is in trouble against a consistent pass rush. UW will have to cover better in the middle of the field and they need Zach Durfee to look better a week after returning from injury. The Illinois defense is much stronger in the front 7 than the back end. If Carver Willis is able to come back as expected this week then it makes me feel a lot better about the ability to block the D-line led by edge rusher Gabe Jacas. Demond Williams Jr. is coming off the first truly bad game of his UW career and hopefully he’ll respond well. I’m tempted to pick the upset with Illinois coming off a bye but will trust that Husky Stadium keeps up its aura against all but top 5 level teams and the Huskies pull it out on a clutch Grady Gross field goal in the rain.

Washington- 29, Illinois- 27

Raymond Lucas Jr. (4-1 SU, 0-5 ATS)

I was in disbelief when the preseason AP Poll was released and Illinois was ranked in the top 15. Immediately, I pointed to it as the most overrated team in the country. The fact that Illinois is still ranked, despite losing to Indiana by a whopping 53 points earlier this season, is mind-blowing. As you can see, I’m not very high on Illinois.

But I can’t shake the feelings that Saturday will be a dangerous one for the Dawgs. Illinois, although overrated, is built like a true Big Ten team. Highly physical, a solid offense, and a capable defense. Washington hasn’t had success when its passing attack is bottled up. It has also gotten off to slow starts far too often for comfort. The fact that this game is being played in rainy conditions makes those last two flaws a huge deal going into this game. So while picking UW to lose at home makes me feel foolish, I can’t shake this feeling that a disappointing Saturday awaits.

Illinois-34, Washington-31