As an Australian, I have been able to watch Karim Lopez a lot over the last two years as he plied his trade with the New Zealand Breakers (who compete in the NBL, for those who don’t know). At 19 years old, Lopez is a 6’8”, 221-pound wing with a 6’11” wingspan. If nothing else, he has the physical profile of a modern NBA wing.
Even at his young age, Karim has a wealth of international experience, having already spent three years playing professionally (one year in Spain and two in New Zealand). In
his final season in the NBL, he averaged 11.9 PPG, 2.0 APG, 6.0 RPG, and an impressive 2.2 stocks per game; he shot 50.2% from the field and 32.6% from three.
Lopez’s physical gifts are hard to ignore. He’s got good height, wingspan, and weight, and I’d be willing to bet he has huge hands as well. These physical gifts showed up in flashes with the Breakers, such as the ease with which he could dunk the ball (almost by “putting the ball in the hoop,” as Giannis does). To be clear, I don’t deny for a second that this kid is dripping with talent; that said, I’ve never really seen it with him as far as turning into a winning player.
Karim scored through brute force in the NBL (a very undersized league) in a fashion that I don’t see working in the NBA. His handle is loose, and he’s an unreliable shooter with somewhat wonky form (and specifically, energy transfer in his shot). He is a serial ball-stopper who is often unable to “make the next play.” Finally, his defence, both on-ball and off-ball, is just not good; he reaches too much, has poor feet, and routinely gets lost on the back side.
To put it plainly, Lopez doesn’t have an “NBA skill” that he’ll be able to rely on as a rookie—the team that drafts him will be betting that they can develop that, which is a somewhat worrying spot to be in. Like, even with a guy like Nate Ament, who teams will also be drafting on potential, I can start to map out how his game “works” at the next level; you know, which skills he can rely on in the early going, which ones have to come later, etc. But with Lopez, I have a hard time working out how he even gets on the floor and what spots he’d need to be put in to feel at least marginally comfortable; and if those ancillary skills don’t develop, he could be in real strife.
Look, the Bucks could take Lopez because they see something I don’t—he did receive a Green Room invite to the draft, so the NBA at large clearly holds him in relatively high regard—but the level of risk makes him a real “stay away” for me if I’m Jon Horst. You pair that with Horst’s record of taking projects, and he may be out of a job if this one fails as well. To the team that drafts Karim Lopez, good luck; maybe he turns into a star, but this is not Horst’s risk to take.
Alright folks, who gets the final spot at 18th?
