Time is running out for teams like the Orioles to decide which way they’re going to go at the trade deadline. This year’s deadline is a little later than usual, arriving one week from today. They will be playing six games between now and then, including these next three against another team that’s got a tough choice to make, the Detroit Tigers.
The Tigers enter this series one game farther out of the picture than the Orioles are. I was surprised when I looked at the standings and saw this. It’s true.
Detroit is 3.5 games out of a wild card spot. The Orioles are only 2.5 games out. The team that loses this series is going to be pushed close to certain seller status. The team that wins will maybe have it go closer to the wire before that decision has to be made.
Looking at the Tigers pitching staff, it’s almost unbelievable that this team has a worse record than the Orioles. They’ve got Tarik Skubal at the top end, putting together the kind of season that will have him contending for a third straight Cy Young award. There are three other pitchers in that rotation in addition to Skubal, including former 1-1 draft pick Casey Mize, who have an ERA of 3.14 or lower and a WHIP under 1. Big-money free agent Framber Valdez is not one of those. We will see three of the sub-1 WHIP guys in this series, including Skubal.
Detroit has an “expected” win-loss record, based on its runs scored and runs allowed, of 56-50, fully six wins better than what they’ve actually got. That underachievement is the story of their season. It should be better than this. They’ve probably got an even better “it should be better than this” case than the Orioles do. They’ve got probable AL Rookie of the Year Kevin McGonigle at 4.9 bWAR and counting. Their catching spot is anchored by Dillon Dingler, who is OPSing .869. In the outfield, Riley Greene has an .843 OPS. All three of these guys were All-Stars.
What’s unfortunate for the Tigers is that five of the other six spots in the lineup are black holes. Most of their bench is worse. It’s proving to be a tough way to win games, even with the starting rotation being what it is. This team is going to need a miracle reversal of fortunes akin to what they got two years ago, when they went a ridiculous 34-19 in August and September. The Orioles need that too. Likely neither of them will get it. Only one team will leave this series with its fans believing they could.
Game 1: Monday, 6:40 Eastern
- BAL starter: Kyle Bradish – 3.49 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 1.324 WHIP in 20 games
- DET starter: Keider Montero – 3.14 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 0.962 WHIP in 22 games
One of the stories of this series is that there’s no guy in the Tigers staff where you can look and say, alright, well, the Orioles should be able to do something against that guy. As those of us who are unfortunately quite familiar with the 2026 team know, there’s no guarantee the Orioles do anything against those guys anyway. But starting with Montero, this is a tough group here, as I will note again, all three of the starting pitchers are sitting at a sub-1 WHIP. Montero has the highest ERA of these guys. If the worst you’ve got for an ERA is the first three digits of pi, you’re doing pretty good.
Montero is wrecking everybody, everywhere this season. He’s equally good against righties and lefties. He’s been good at home and even better on the road. He allowed a .629 OPS in March/April and has been increasingly better than that every month since. He’s not striking out many guys (only 78 in 106 innings) but he’s not walking many guys, either.
Bradish is fresh off getting his big payday and hopefully that will keep him pitching like he’s done over his past six starts. He’s thrown 40 innings in that time and recorded a 2.03 ERA. Take it back another seven starts before that and he’s got a 2.84 ERA. He has been doing very well since early May. The Orioles are in a position where they’re probably going to need him to keep doing that well until their season ends.
Game 2: Tuesday, 6:40 Eastern
- BAL starter: Dean Kremer – 5.06 ERA, 5.79 FIP, 1.118 WHIP in 6 games
- DET starter: Troy Melton – 1.95 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 0.950 WHIP in 10 games
“Who is Troy Melton?” I asked myself when I saw his name while typing out this preview. Perhaps I should have searched my memory better, because he faced the Orioles when he made his season debut on May 24. He was pretty good against the Orioles on that occasion and he’s been doing great since then too, with only one real bad start, and even that wasn’t too bad at four runs allowed in five innings.
Melton, a 25-year-old righty, was a fourth round draft pick four years ago. The Mike Elias rotation-building philosophy is that he’ll be able to build a rotation out of those kinds of guys. The main problem with the philosophy is that he hasn’t been able to do that. Melton’s career so far is proof that it can work. To be fair, so is Bradish’s; the Orioles just need more of them.
Perhaps it will not last for long, this success Melton is enjoying. That’s a massive gap between the ERA and the FIP. The Orioles could sure help themselves by being the team to help those two numbers converge.
One other thing that would help the Orioles is for Kremer to bring his ERA in line with his consistently-slightly-below-average performance of the past three seasons. He was on that road until he gave up six runs in six innings in his last start. Kremer has not had a quality start since July 1. It’s time to change that, Dean. You could help yourself by not giving up so many home runs. Kremer has 10 homers allowed in 32 innings this year. That 2.8 HR/9 will punch you in the face if you look at it funny.
POW!
Hey, come on, I warned you.
Game 3: Wednesday, 1:10 Eastern
- BAL starter: Trevor Rogers – 4.17 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 1.273 WHIP in 19 games
- DET starter: Tarik Skubal – 2.70 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 0.922 WHIP in 15 games
If the narrative of the series as a whole is that the loser is likely headed into selling territory, this finale makes the perfect matchup, because Rogers and Skubal are probably their respective teams most valuable rental trade pieces to offer as sellers. If the teams split the first two games, this one will feel like the stakes are high. If one team wins the first two games, then the stakes will only be so high for the loser by the time the finale arrives.
Rogers’s numbers for the season don’t look nearly as good as Skubal’s do. However, over his last nine starts, Rogers is pitching like he did a year ago: He’s got a 1.80 ERA in that time, while averaging more than six innings per start. That’s a good run of starts. If he keeps it up til season’s end, he should get a nice payday in the offseason. Skubal is definitely getting a nice payday in the offseason.
Although a story of the Orioles early in the season was their struggles against lefty pitchers, they’ve made up for that by now. Their OPS against lefties is up to .712 and, crucially, Orioles righties are no longer struggling as a whole against southpaws. It’s not hopeless any more. It’s just that, against Skubal, it still might be pretty hopeless.
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What do you think is going to happen in this series? Can the Orioles put the brakes on their collapse? Let us know in the comments below.
