21. Jordy Vargas (161 points, 14 ballots)
Vargas was one of Colorado’s headline prospects from their January 2021 amateur free agent class, signing for $500k out of the Dominican Republic. The 6’5” 22-year-old right-handed starter has MLB bloodlines — he is the son of pitcher Yorkis Perez, who played in parts of nine big-league seasons for five different teams. Vargas boasts a pitch mix that includes a mid-90s fastball, a potential plus curveball, a promising change, and the ability to throw them for strikes consistently. At least, he did
before Tommy John surgery wiped out half of 2023 and all of 2024. An uneven and abbreviated 2025 didn’t fully answer the question of if the arsenal is back and Vargas was unprotected and unselected in the 2025 Rule 5 Draft.
Mid-season 2025 Rank: 22
High Ballot: 16
Mode Ballot: 18, 20
Future Value: 40, back-end starter or middle reliever
Contract Status: 2021 International Free Agent, Dominican Republic, Rule 5 Eligible, three options remaining
MLB ETA: 2027
Vargas wowed observers in his 2022 stateside debut season split between the complex league and Low-A Fresno, then he was sent back to Fresno for 2023, where he was one of the youngest players in the California League (he’s younger than Jackson Cox, for reference). Against competition that was on average 2.9 years older, Vargas was clearly not overmatched by the competition in 64 innings across 13 starts, in which he had a 4.22 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 rate, and 3.4 BB/9 rate while right-handed batters hit just .202 against him. Then came the injury and a lengthy rehab process.
In 2025, Vargas was assigned to High-A Spokane, where he was 2.2 years younger than average, and was clearly pitch and innings limited. It wasn’t a smooth ride, as Vargas didn’t last longer than three innings in any of his 10 starts, allowing a 7.84 ERA with a 2.03 WHIP driven by a 9.1 BB/9 rate in 20 2/3 innings, though he did strike out 12.2/9 innings. The Rockies sent Vargas back down to the ACL in June, where he made four more starts, all of them four innings or less, the last of them on July 4th. Against lower level competition, the results (especially strikeouts) were a bit better (10 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 10 H, 5 BB, 2 HBP, 17 K) but wildness was still an issue.
Thomas Harding picks up the story from there in his profile of Vargas from early November 2025. Per that piece, Vargas spent time in the Rockies’ pitching performance lab in Arizona and worked on his form. By the time fall instructs rolled around, he seemed to be rounding back into form. We’ll see how Vargas looks after another full off-season this spring.
Here’s some video of Vargas in his first ACL appearance in 2022 courtesy of FanGraphs:
Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs gives Vargas a 40+ FV grade (with a plus grade on the curveball) and ranks him 12th in the system:
Vargas is a loose, ultra-projectable, strike-throwing starter prospect with a curvaceous breaking ball who missed 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He checks every scouting box one could hope that a young pitching prospect would check, aside from maybe his fastball shape. From ages 18 to 20, Vargas’ fastball would sit 93-95 early in outings, and he’s built and moves in such a way that he might end up throwing considerably harder as his body fills out. He’s super loose, balanced, and mechanically consistent for a pitcher his age, in the Cristopher Sánchez or Brady Singer mold in terms of build and delivery.
Vargas’ curveball is a knee-buckling parabola of death, he’s adept at creating tail on his changeup, and his general athleticism and the looseness of his arm action portend continued growth in this area. His fastball’s shape doesn’t really complement his curveball right now, and similar to Singer, it might be tough for Vargas to miss bats with his heater unless he ends up throwing really hard (he was 92-94 during instructs in the fall of 2024) or makes a change to the pitch’s shape.
Vargas is also a good bit behind the developmental curve due to the unfortunate timing of his late-2023 Tommy John, which cost him all but a handful of developmental innings during instructs. The 2025 season is technically Vargas’ 40-man platform year, but the 64 Low-A innings he pitched before he blew out in 2023 were a career high. How the Rockies handle his innings load and promotion pace in 2025 will be interesting. They’ve experienced the drawbacks of adding very young pitching to their 40-man roster too soon (Helcris Olivarez), but Vargas is very talented and fairly polished for his age, so it’s plausible he could be sniped in the Rule 5 Draft if left unprotected. He’s among the most exciting pitching prospects in Colorado’s system and has the look of a college pitcher who gets drafted in the middle of the first round.
John Trupin of Baseball Prospectus ranked Vargas 16th before the 2025 season:
Vargas is rail thin, with a whippy, over-the-top delivery that relies heavily on a picturesque 12-6 curveball that just keeps breaking beyond the reach of hitters when the 21 year old northpaw is healthy.
MLB Pipeline ranked Vargas 26th as a 40 FV player before the season, though he is no longer on their system top 30:
When he’s healthy, Vargas might be the best pitching prospect in the system in terms of being able to pound the strike zone with a solid three-pitch mix. He can command his low-90s fastball to both sides of the plate, and the carry it has in the top of the zone helps it play up and keeps hitters from barreling it up. He can get a little fastball-heavy in his pitch mix, but he was making strides in his secondary offerings, especially in focusing in on one breaking ball. Instead of trying to create a distinct slider and curve only to have them run into each other, he’s recognized that the biting slider has a real chance to be an out pitch. There’s a solid changeup in there as well.
With a narrow and slender frame, it remains to be seen if Vargas can put on weight and add strength in order to be durable enough — and maintain his stuff enough — to be a starter. There’s also work to be done in terms of professional maturity and not letting his emotions get the better of him on the mound.
Vargas remains a big question mark entering 2026. If he’s indeed healthy and effective this spring, I could foresee him beginning back in Spokane with a mid-season promotion to Double-A Hartford possible if the results and stuff return. That outcome would presage a 40 man roster placement in the off-season, though another season like 2025 would push Vargas further off the prospect radar.
The potential of what Vargas can be is still tantalizing (and he’s still just 22), though it’s becoming less and less likely he reaches that potential. I ranked Vargas 17th on my ballot near the top of the 40 FV tier, but I’m hopeful another full offseason further away from surgery will get him back on track.
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