Juventus last won the Scudetto in the summer of 2020. I repeat: 2020. That is more than six years ago now, a total of around 200 league fixtures over that span. I’ve been thinking about how you go from winning nine straight Serie A titles in a row to being a club that is currently in seventh and hoping to finish in fourth.
Now, the simple story is that we chased fame and fortune, wanted to become a brand rather than a club, and kind of tripped over ourselves along the way. We lost sight of what we were,
what made us great, and the decline was — to borrow from the movie — fast and furious. There is truth in that. But it is only half the story. Actually, more precisely, what I am about to argue is that it is around two-thirds of the story.
Today, troops, I am going to put some meat on the bones of a hypothesis that essentially says we are where we are today 65% because we did it to ourselves, and 35% because the rest of the league did it to us.
Having had a look at the abacus, sifted the table as I did for my estimate of our chances this year — I think it’s fifth place — and had to deal with the sadness that comes of that, I also discovered that our decline maps almost precisely with the moment the rest of Italian football recovered.
The interesting question I think I stumbled over is how much of our club’s decline belongs to Juventus themselves, and how much belongs to a stronger Serie A.
Let’s begin with a simply idea. 2020 is not our starting point. Many supporters remember the 2019-20 title as our last season of dominance. In reality, I think this was more in the making of the final warning sign. Juventus’ points totals over their final three championship seasons tell the story:
- 2017-18: 95
- 2018-19: 90
- 2019-20: 83
By the time Maurizio Sarri lifted the Scudetto in 2o20, Juventus had already fallen 12 points from their peak. The decline had in fact well and truly set in, we just had headway to lose first — and a few good players. The deterioration was not simply numerical. It was structural. Within a short period Juventus lost:
- Cristiano Ronaldo
- Paulo Dybala
- Giorgio Chiellini
- Miralem Pjanic
- Gianluigi Buffon
- The best years of Leonardo Bonucci
- The final productive years of Juan Cuadrado
No club replaces that quantity of experience, leadership and elite talent overnight. However, we had time to see those losses coming and to work on them. We often hear about the MVPP being the loss and a midfield that never recovers, but so too is the BBC, and Ronaldo, and Dybala, etc., etc., etc. That is enough to see, to plan and prepare for. So what (else) happened? The rest of Serie A woke up.
This is the part of the story many Juventus supporters underestimate. When Juventus won their final title in 2020, the league was in an unusually weak state around them. The table looked like this:
- Juventus 83
- Inter 82
- Atalanta 78
- Lazio 78
- Milan 66
- Napoli 62
Fast forward just a few years. The traditional powers had recovered. Inter evolved into the strongest team in Italy, culminating in a 94-point title-winning season. Milan rebuilt intelligently, won a Scudetto, and returned to being a genuine contender. Their championship side reached 86 points. Napoli exploded under Luciano Spalletti (no comments please) and delivered one of the strongest championship campaigns in modern Serie A history, finishing on 90 points.
The improvement — across all these teams — is striking. Here is how those teams improved from the 2019-20 season to their best season since:
- Inter: 82 points to 94
- Milan: 66 points to 86
- Napoli: 62 points to 90
Inter improved by 12 points. Milan improved by 20. Napoli improved by 28. Let me repeat that: Napoli improved by 28 points. For years, Juventus had effectively enjoyed a monopoly on elite management, squad depth and financial power in Italy. That monopoly disappeared.
One way to measure the league’s improvement is to compare Juventus’ final title-winning side against subsequent championship standards. Since Juventus’ last Scudetto, title winners have recorded the following point totals:
- 2020-21: Inter 91
- 2021-22: Milan 86
- 2022-23: Napoli 90
- 2023-24: Inter 94
- 2024-25: Napoli 82
Average: 88.6 points. Juventus’ last title-winning side managed 83. That means even if the 2019-20 Juventus team had somehow remained frozen at peak, unchanged, it probably would have managed to win once since then, maybe. The bar itself got higher.
So, in very simple terms, firstly Juventus declined by around 12 points before they even stopped winning titles. Secondly, the league’s strongest challengers improved dramatically and Juve declined even further.
That is why the evidence points toward a roughly 65-35 split. Yes, most of the damage was self-inflicted. The pathway has continued downwards. But the timing could not have been worse. The rest of the league got better at essentially the same rate that we got worse — starting from the moment of our last title. In effect, we got a 12-point head start on going backwards, and then watched everyone race past at the same speed since.
For much of the 2010s, Juventus were not simply the best team in Italy, they were operating in a league where their traditional rivals were dysfunctional. Milan were rebuilding. Inter changed coaches and strategies almost annually. Roma repeatedly sold key players. Napoli lacked the squad depth to sustain title races.
The nine-year dynasty was a remarkable achievement, but it also coincided with an unusually favourable competitive landscape. Today that landscape no longer exists. Inter are elite. Napoli have won two Scudetti in five years. Milan have won one. Atalanta have become a permanent member of Italy’s top tier. Bologna have shown that smart recruitment can challenge established powers. Como has rocketed to success.
Juventus are no longer competing against the Serie A of 2015. They are competing against the strongest Serie A in over a decade. The comforting explanation for us as supporters is that the club merely suffered (is suffering) a temporary decline. The uncomfortable possibility is that Italian football changed around them.
