The New England Patriots have taken advantage of what is on paper among the weakest schedules in football so far this season, but they will be facing one of their toughest tests this week. On Sunday, the 7-2
team of head coach Mike Vrabel will travel to Tampa Bay to square off against the 6-2 Buccaneers.
The battle between the AFC’s and the NFC’s No. 2 seeds entering Week 10 projects as a highly competitive affair. Looking at the two teams head-to-head, however, we can see that the Patriots emerging victoriously to improve to 5-0 on the road this year is not out of the realm of possibility.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Buccaneers pass defense: Even though Drake Maye and company had a rough go over the final 31 minutes against Atlanta on Sunday, the Patriots’ passing offense as a whole has been one of the best in football this season. Now, however, it will be facing one of its toughest challenges so far: not only are the Buccaneers ranked sixth in the NFL in dropback EPA (-0.012/snap), New England will also have to face them without starting wide receiver and primary field-stretcher Kayshon Boutte. We are still giving the visitors a slight edge simply because of the quarterback factor, but this is going to be a fierce battle. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Buccaneers pass offense: Speaking of fierce battles, the Patriots’ pass defense will be facing one of those as well come Sunday afternoon. The Baker Mayfield-led Bucs, after all, have been quite impressive in their own right and are in the top half of the NFL in most important pass game statistics. Of course, they have largely been doing that without two of their top three receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Neither will suit up in Week 10, which means that the spotlight will again be on Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner Emeka Egbuka. Therein lies a potential weakness, however, given that the Patriots have the means to limit his impact and in turn make the Tampa pass game play left-handed. | Edge: Patriots
Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Buccaneers run defense: The Patriots run game has looked solid in recent weeks, but it will once again have to operate without starters Rhamondre Stevenson this week. The Buccaneers defense also will be down one starter, outside linebacker Haason Reddick, but it still should be able to keep New England’s ground game in check. That is particularly true because the group’s third-place ranking in EPA per rush (-0.189) also includes limiting quarterback scramble attempts. On the year, Tampa’s defense is ranked ninth in average yards per scramble (6.7) despite facing the third-highest scramble rate in football (14.1%). Drake Maye won’t have an easy time impacting the game with his legs. | Edge: Buccaneers
Patriots run defense vs. Buccaneers rushing offense: The Patriots defense has not allowed a 50-yard rusher so far this season, and the Bucs breaking this streak — or indeed making life hard for their opponent on the ground — is not the likeliest of outcomes: RB1 Bucky Irving has broken the 50-yard barrier in three of his four games this season, but he will again be out this week; his replacement, Rachaad White, has gone 2-for-8 in that regard and has averaged 44.8 yards in his four starts. Fact is, New England’s rush defense remains one of the best in the business, while Tampa’s ground game has been uneven since losing Irving. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
Statistically, the Patriots and Buccaneers are fairly evenly matched in the kicking game. There is one noticeable difference between the two teams, however: whereas New England’s Andy Borregales has made 92.9% of his field goal attempts and 92.3% of his extra points, his Tampa counterpart Chase McLaughlin at only 81.0% as well as 94.1% in the respective categories. McLaughlin’s slight edge in point-after tries is outdone by the fact that he has missed four field goals this season compared to Borregales’ one. Furthermore, Borregales has been perfect in his combined 31 attempts from Week 3 on. | Edge: Patriots
Coaching
The Patriots’ staff has done a mighty fine job this season, but the Buccaneers’ also deserves a shoutout. Head coach Todd Bowles’ team, after all, has had to deal with multiple high-profile injuries this season and yet has managed to stay its course. This adaptability gives the home team a slight advantage in our eyes, especially considering that New England’s acting defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr pointed at just that as something that he and his unit need to improve moving forward. | Edge: Buccaneers
Verdict
There may be some slight advantages one way or another across the board, but make no mistake: this week’s game between the Patriots and Buccaneers should be a fairly even affair. The visitors being listed as 2.5-point underdogs — meaning the two clubs are basically regarded as equals on neutral turf — reflects this as well. We should be in for a fun one, and a significant hurdle for a New England side trying to prove that its record is no mirage and that they are indeed one of the best teams in the league right now.
