Despite their struggles in September, and really throughout the second half of the season, the Detroit Tigers still had an opportunity to put their first AL Central title since 2014 in the books and celebrate at home against the Cleveland Guardians this week. Instead, they were swept at home in front of a demoralized home crowd. They still hold a three and a half game lead in the division, but the possibility of one of the worst collapses in franchise history now looms over the final three series
of the regular season.
Perhaps the Tigers had their way with the division for too long. They played great ball throughout the first half of the season, and were never remotely threatened until the record needle scratch that was their deep skid in the second half of July. Even then, the Royals and Guardians were still well on the outside looking in, and with a bullpen reinforced by Kyle Finnegan and Rafael Montero at the trade deadline the Tigers turned things around quickly, compiling a 16-12 record in August and pulling away from their divisional rivals by a wide margin once again.
That was the first little test perhaps, but they were never really under that much stress. Even two weeks ago their lead still looked unassailable. They’re feeling that stress now, for certain.
Finally, the Guardians caught fire in September. After dropping a series to Boston to start the month, they’ve gone on a 12-2 run while the Tigers have gone 4-8 in that same span. The result is that the Tigers now hold just a 3.5 game lead in the divisional race, and are even in some danger of missing the playoffs entirely if they crumble to dust in these last nine games. Probably that won’t happen. Statistically this shouldn’t happen. But now the Tigers have to make sure it doesn’t. Flipping the switch from cruise control to playing high stakes baseball has not proven easy for them.
The most frustrating part of this recent stretch is the fact that it’s hard to pin down any single unit responsible. The Tigers have gotten really good starts from Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty the past two weeks. Keider Montero stepped up with a strong outing to help carry them over the Marlins on Sunday. Tarik Skubal pitched like Tarik Skubal on Thursday after his injury scare last Friday. In regulation, they held the Guardians to just 10 runs in the series, and got swept anyway. Against the Marlins, one brutal outing from Sawyer Gipson-Long hurt them and put one of the three game set out of reach.
The pitching staff has had its issues, compounded by Scott Harris’ failure to find them some quality starting pitching help at the deadline. Kyle Finnegan’s injury hasn’t helped matters either, but overall the rotation has been good, and the bullpen has generally been good at holding leads. If there’s one group that has continued to scuffle during this stretch it’s the hitters, who haven’t given them many leads to hold in the first place.
Still, the most obvious problem for the Tigers right now is Riley Greene and the heart of their lineup. The Tigers are built as a deep lineup of quality hitters. They don’t have multiple high-end hitters to depend on. Greene is supposed to anchor the heart of the order, combining with Gleyber Torres, Kerry Carpenter, and Spencer Torkelson to provide a major threat. Instead, after snapping out of his funk in July with a better month of August, Greene has absolutely fallen apart so far in September, holding a 78 wRC+ for the month.
Gleyber Torres looked like a great acquisition for four months and gave the Tigers that pesky, high contact, low strikeout veteran hitter that they lacked. In the second half he’s hitting just .208 with a 86 wRC+ with no power to speak of. He’s still taking his walks and getting on base a fair amount, but while his strikeout rate is still better than average, it’s almost seven points higher than it was in the first half. In his case it does look like there’s a lot of bad luck in play, as his BABIP has dropped from a .301 mark in the first half to just .231 in the second half, with no obvious change in the amount of hard contact nor in batted ball type to explain it.
Torkelson hasn’t come unglued to the same degree and has finally managed to survive his down periods without falling apart. Still he’s gone from a 124 wRC+ down to 105 in the second half, mainly because the power has dried up.
The lone bright spots are Parker Meadows at the top of the order, and Kerry Carpenter, who has finally caught fire in the second half. Still, his career numbers against left-handers mean he’s getting pinch-hit for against left-handed relievers and not starting against southpaw starters.
Dillon Dingler has been rolling, and Jahmai Jones remains productive in his limited role, but with their two best hitters scuffling badly and Torkelson not contributing the power they need from him, the weaknesses in the rest of the lineup have been totally exposed.
It’s not a surprise that Javier Báez and Zach McKinstry came back to Earth after good first halves, but they’ve absolutely crashed on re-entry. Wenceel Pérez came off the injury list red hot in August, but now pitchers with good fourseamers are just bullying him. Colt Keith went from four months where he really looked to have figured it out to struggling in September and now dealing with a back issue that might keep him out the rest of the way.
The glaring issues we discussed at length all offseason in terms of the left side of the infield have bared their teeth yet again after getting papered over in the first half. Báez is their most trustworthy shortstop defensively, but he isn’t hitting at all. Neither are their other options in McKinstry and Trey Sweeney. With Keith now hurt, the Tigers may have to call up Jace Jung, and there’s little to convince anyone that a platoon of Jung with Andy Ibáñez, who also isn’t hitting even in his specific role against lefties, is going to be an improvement over their miserable year-long marks at third base.
Fans can blame Harris for a poor trade deadline, and while those effects have cascading throughout the roster and forced A.J. Hinch to hold what sometimes looks like open tryouts in the bullpen and the fifth starter spot, Hinch and pitching coach Chris Fetter haven’t been able to find great answers either. Still, it feels like the pitching staff has come around. They just aren’t getting much run support most days.
There’s plenty of blame to go around, but ultimately I come back to the players who are supposed to be getting it done. Few expected this unit to be a 90+ game winning beast prior to the season beginning, and at this point they look a lot like what many feared; a pretty average roster with the best pitcher in baseball to help them win three out of every five games more often than not.
How do they turn this around in the final nine games? Well, not playing the Guardians might help, but that’s not an option. Three at home against an Atlanta Braves club that disappointed but is playing a lot better in the second half, three on the road in Cleveland, and then three on the road against a tough contender in Boston.
As ghastly as this last two weeks has been for the franchise, I’ve personally made my peace with the fact that the Tigers need this adversity. If they’re going to do anything in the postseason, which I acknowledge is something of a crapshoot once you’re in, they’re going to face a lot more pressure than this.
Then again, it’s easy to think back to the Tigers staggering down the stretch in 2006, losing a big lead over the Twins in the Central, and then getting it together in the postseason to reach the World Series. Let’s just say it’s not the first time we’ve seen a Tigers squad leading the division only to get run down by their rivals late in the year.
Other than Torres, this roster doesn’t have a whole lot of playoff experience. They didn’t have time to get nervous and tight last year because no one expected anything as they went on their astounding run to reach the postseason. They’ve never been here, and no one is coming to rescue them. No one is born knowing how to dig out of a slump, or how to turn the tide when everything seems to be going against them. They’re going to have to figure it out for themselves and earn their way into the postseason. They don’t need to go 8-1 the rest of the way, but they have got to put together three well played series in a row, and it’s been a while since they’ve managed that.
All the luxury of a huge lead is gone, at their 3.5 game lead is more like three games even at the moment as the Guardians currently hold the tiebreaker in the season series. If the Tigers can’t hold that over the next nine games there are going to be a lot of tough questions for players, ownership, and management this offseason. Right now though, the players who are supposed to lead the franchise into a new and successful era have to pick themselves up, pull together their team, and shut the door on their pesky AL Central rival.
Things are getting scary, but the fate of the 2025 Detroit Tigers is still in their own hands.
